Minor Musings

Monday's Triumphant Return

2010-04-26T11:55:00.000-07:00

And we're back!

After a early-season trip to St. Louis knocked me horribly behind schedule, I've finally caught up in time to talk about the Astros minor leagues in an intelligent way. Let's start off with the good stuff:

Round Rock starter Josh Banks got roughed up on Friday, allowing eight hits and six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. It was the first time Banks had not completed the sixth inning this season and still only raised his ERA to 3.69. Of course, his FIP of 4.38 shows he's been lucky to this point. Another fun fact? Banks has given up a home run in all four of his starts so far.

While Jason Castro has been disappointing this season at the plate, he has walked in 11 straight games now and his OBP of .390 is pretty solid. Imagine if his batting average were higher than .234?

Round Rock has been pretty speed this season. The Express have stolen 21 bases in 25 attempts. Granted, 12 of those 25 attempts belong to Jason Bourgeois, but it's impressive nonetheless.

Another guy having a solid start at Round Rock is Gustavo Chacin. A rough spring dropped him out of the race for a big league spot, but Chacin has rebounded nicely with a 13/4 K/BB rate and allowing just four earned runs in 20 2/3 innings. His ERA of 1.74 is probably a bit high, but his FIP of 3.78 is still pretty respectable. If his K rate were a little higher, we could be getting a little more excited about his April.

Douglas Arguello lost his first decision of the season, allowing four earned runs over six innings. Arguello struck out six while walking one, giving him a 20/5 K/BB ratio on the season. He's also got a good ground ball rate, which is one of the reasons why his BABiP rate of .304 could be sustainable for longer than a month. It's also one of the reasons his FIP of 2.21 is encouraging.

Obviously, the offensive story with the Hooks is Koby Clemens. He's created 12.18 runs this season with a wBOA of .323. his six home runs also leads the team but he's trailed closely in wOBA by Marcos Cabral, who has started at second base, third base and shortstop this season.

Unfortunately, one of the Hooks off to a slow start is T.J. Steele, who's 12 for 59 this season with two walks and 12 strikeouts. His wOBA of .193 is one of the lowest on the Corpus Christi roster and his BABiP of .255 is fifty points lower than his batting average. We're less than a month into the season and we're still only talking about 61 plate appearances, but hopefully Steele can turn things around soon.

We'll get to more minor league info Tuesday, with updates on Lancaster and probably Lexington as well.

Scouting Report from Seton Hall at Texas A&M

2010-02-23T21:29:00.001-08:00

It's been a while, hasn't it? Seems my time has been taken up lately by new gigs, new babies and not much minor league action. But, with the start of the college baseball season, I hope to get this blog revving up again. First up is a small scouting report on the Texas A&M baseball game from last Friday, February 19th.

The main guy I focused on was starting pitcher Barrett Loux. When I asked Andy Seiler over at his MLB Draft Blog who to watch for, he immediately said Loux is the guy. Coming off surgery last summer, Loux may end up falling into the fourth or fifth round, but a strong showing this spring could push him as high as the second.

For various, non-exciting reasons, I didn't get to this game until the bottom of the first and missed Loux's first inning of work. I did get to watch his next four and got some good notes. Loux threw five innings, giving up three hits and two runs, though only one was earned, while striking out eight and walking one. He used 92 pitches, but I only saw 74 of them. He did get nine whiffs that I saw for a 12.1 percent whiff rate. That's not great, but it's pretty good for a guy coming off surgery AND in his first game of the season.

Loux did run into trouble in the third. The first hit he gave up was an RBI single after an error and a walk put runners at first and second. One of the problems he ran into here was Seton Hall threw up a bunch of lefthanded hitters and Loux was not getting the calls low and away. Rather than give in, he ended up giving up some walks and a couple hits.

I posted some video of his stuff here. Go over to this excellent post on pitching mechanics first and then watch Loux.

You can see that his form holds up very well. His delivery doesn't drift into the Inverted W or Inverted L territory and shouldn't cause injury concerns. I like how effortless the delivery is too. He's a bit of a Tall and Fall guy, but he doesn't land very hard on his plant foot. I've read over at Driveline Mechanics in the past that too violent a follow-through can lead to elbow problems due to the force carrying up from the ground to the arm. The other thing to like here is his arm slot stays fairly consistent at a three-quarters angle. His high leg kick seems to hide the ball well and gives his delivery a little more deception.

The only quirk I noticed is that he pitched out of the stretch almost exclusively. I'll watch for that next time I go and may have to find out why that is.

The only other two notes I had from the game were about Brett Parsons and Adam Smith. I saw some of Parsons last summer with the Brazos Valley Bombers, a local wooden bat team in the Texas Collegiate League. He played the field pretty well then but didn't show a whole lot with the bat. In the game last Friday, Parsons was 0-for-3 and finished the weekend 1-for-6 with a double and a strikeout. His swing looks too long to me and might be an 'aluminum bat swing,' as the scouts like to say.

Smith is very intriguing. The 6-foot-3, 200 pound sophomore came in last season as a defense-first guy, but ended up hitting .267/.364/.489 with nine home runs in 180 at-bats. He also had a fielding percentage of .923 in 248 chances. All in all, he had a great freshman season and I was intrigued to see what he could do in 2010. The first thing that jumps out at you is how tall he is. Traditionally, shortstops are not this big, but if Cal Ripken could make it work, so can Adam Smith. He's got a pretty good glove and showed a solid swing. On Friday, he singled up the middle with a short stroke that didn't get much loft on the ball. He still took a good approach and looks like a sleeper for next year's draft. Plus, I've already nicknamed him 'The Economist.' Who doesn't love a history reference and a LOST reference in one?

For a guy who was named Big 12 Player of the Week, newly minted center fielder Brodie Green didn't to anything to jump out at me. Of course, we left right before his big hit Friday night and I didn't see him in Saturday's doubleheader. Apparently, he made a spectacular catch in center, running back and to his right before diving flat out to catch the ball right at the warning track. My writer friend who covered the game was pretty impressed. Not bad for a guy who played second base last season.

That's about all I have this time. I'll definitely try to make more games as the season wears on and report back here what I see.

Jason Castro in the AFL Rising Stars Game

2009-11-18T18:21:00.000-08:00

So I finally got around to watching the Arizona Fall League's Rising Stars Game (the All-Star game for the AFL). Jason Castro played 5 1/2 innings and came up to bat twice. Here are my impressions of a VERY small sample size.

First at-bat: Castro swings at the first pitch he sees, a slow curve down in the zone. Castro hits a weak grounder to second for the second out of the inning. His bat looked very slow going through the zone, almost a little heavy.
Third inning: Castro hosed Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown at second, popping up quickly, making a clean transfer and putting the throw in a good spot for shortstop Triunfel. Just showed why Castro is considered such a good defensive player, especially since Brown is one of the faster players in the AFL.
Second at-bat: Castro sees four pitches, swinging at an inside slider on a 1-2 count that he hits to the second baseman again. Castro's swing didn't seem as long as in his first at-bat, but it definitely didn't have any speed getting through the zone.
Fourth inning: Castro blocks a breaking pitch nicely in the dirt, but the Cub's Starlin Castro took off for second base. Castro had to get the ball and make a quick throw, which was not good. The ball sailed on Castro too far to the right of the second baseman and skittering into center field.
Sixth inning: A's speedster Jemile Weeks led a double steal. Castro took a fastball down in the zone and fired a laser to third but Weeks beat it by a hair. It was definitely a bang-bang play.

And that's it. Castro was supposed to come up in the bottom of the sixth, but was lifted for pinch-hitter Travis McBride, a catcher from the Cleveland organization.

All in all, it was a mixed bag for the Astros top prospect. Castro did not look good at all at the plate, showing a heavy swing and topping both balls he made contact with to the right side of the infield. His defensive play was spot on, making a good throw for one caught stealing and one bad throw on the Starlin Castro play. The third was kind of a toss-up, as it wasn't Castro's fault the pitcher didn't hold the runner on second better.

I put up this little study on The Crawfish Boxes the other day, noting how many innings Castro has played in the past few years. He was sent home shortly after this all-star game due to fatigue, but should be ready to go for spring training in February. Here's what I put at TCB:

The following are rough estimates on the number of innings played for Castro in the past five seasons. You can see the huge spike in the season he got drafted. It's also worth noting that for the first few years there, those innings were spread out through the entire year, as Castro played in the Alaska Baseball League, the Area Code Games, the Cape Cod League and other events throughout his career that made playing baseball year-round a possibility.

2005 - ~500 (mostly infield)

2006 - 673 (mostly first base)

2007 - 536 (mostly first base)

2008 - 900 (first season full-time at catcher)

2009 - 1,100 (including spring training, minors, World Cup and AFL)

Castro is used to playing year-round, but tired out right around the time he hit the 1,000 inning mark. The Astros top two catchers last season combined to catch 1,175 innings. Maybe Castro just needs to get his legs underneath him. He's only caught for two seasons now, much like Posey and should be fresher than someone who caught all through high school and college. Still, if we're thinking of using Castro at some point next season, it's worth asking if he'll have anything in the tank when he is called up.

No other Astros were in the AFL Rising Stars, but one former Aggie did play. Atlanta Braves shortstop prospect Brandon Hicks was inserted in the game in the sixth inning. Hicks made a couple sterling defensive plays, but struck out and hit a grounder to third in two at-bats. This was pretty much what he did at A&M, so it's no surprise. The scouts are still split on whether he'll ever have enough bat to make the majors, but man, can he throw the leather around.

One final note: I realize this blog hasn't bee updated much since September. That's mostly because I've been working a LOT for the Eagle and have been bumped up to a regular writer for The Crawfish Boxes. In addition to my regular job and the new gig of being a dad, I just haven't had the time to do proper analyses of prospects here. My schedule will thin out some and you will get more posts on the minor leagues. Just bear with me.

Money, Wins and the Draft

2009-09-04T08:44:00.000-07:00

I've posted before about how I thought the Astros were fooling people by telling them they've committed to the farm system, when this year's draft class came in at 96% of the recommended slot prices and the Astros spent less than all but a handful of teams in the 2009 draft. Well, I've done some more research. Using data from Baseball America's draft databases and from Cot's Baseball Contracts, I've put together a couple of spreadsheets to analyze team spending and number of wins. The first spreadsheet (here) looks at the amount teams have spent on their opening day payrolls for the past decade and how many victories they have gotten for their money. I've averaged the payrolls to get a sense of how much money each team has spent and then looked at how much each team has spent per victory.

Then, in another spreadsheet (here) I tracked all the team's signing bonuses for players in the draft from 2009 through 2006, with 2003 added to round out the group. I had intended to include 2004 and 2005, but that data was not available on Baseball America's site and I haven't been able to find it anywhere else.

So, what did I learn?

The Astros haven't changed.

Out of those five seasons, the Astros have spent the least amount of money on draft picks of any team. That's dead last. I took the average of the median bonus spending in each of those five drafts and the Astros aren't even within a million dollars of that average. In fact, there are only four teams that are over 1 million short of the league average for slot spending: the Angels, the Mets, the White Sox and the Astros. It's not all about position in the draft either. Among the highest spending teams are Boston, San Francisco, the Yankees, Atlanta; all are teams that regularly contend for the playoffs. Oakland is under that average of $4,900,000, but that's including a 2006 draft where they spent just $1,910,000. If you exclude that year, the A's have averaged $5,481,700 in bonuses each year.

It's not just about the money either. Looking at the Organizational Rankings that Baseball America puts out, the Astros rank last over the past four seasons and third to last since 2001. That's how bad the organization has been. Granted, that doesn't take into account the work that has been done the past two seasons, but it shows the general trend to which this lack of spending can lead.

I'm also not trying to show that spending money is the answer. I will point out, however, that of the top 15 teams in talent ranking from 2006 to 2009, only three spent below the league average on bonuses. On the other hand, five teams spent more than 6 million per year and are still in the bottom half of the organizational rankings.

It's not about the gross total of money, it's how you spend it. The Astros don't need to give Scott Boras a blank check for prospects, but good organizations take shots on players late in the draft. For instance, the Astros picked Chad Jones in the 13th round of the 2007 draft, even though Jones was committed to LSU and was a good cornerback prospect. In that disastrous draft, the Astros had already failed to sign their top two picks (a third- and fourth-rounder). Instead of channeling that money into Jones to get a top talent signed no matter when he was drafted, the Astros let him go. Good teams will take advantage of the system that is in place, which leaves talented players dropping into the middle of the draft because of bonus demands. The Red Sox do this, the winningest team this decade does this (the Yankees); hell, even the Pirates do this.

Yes, the Astros did go above and beyond last season to sign Ross Seaton, Brad Dydalewicz and Luis Cruz. They did what was necessary and took some chances. This season, though? Where was the risk? Where were the interesting signings late in the draft? As I said, the Astros paid less than recommended slot price for their draft in 2009. In all the hype that they got 16 of the top 17 signed so early, let's not forget WHY they got them signed. They didn't take anyone as talented as some of the harder signs.

I believe in Bobby Heck. I think Ed Wade is doing a good job of not rushing the farm system guys. I don't like the organization feeding me chicken feathers and calling it chicken salad. If Wade does get fired after this disappointing campaign is done and if Heck loses his job, I wonder if they'll be relieved. I have a suspicion that they found the wallet closed a little tighter this season as people forgot the 2007 draft disaster. If we gave them truth serum, they might tell us that 2008 was the abberation and that 2009 is the way it's going to be. Living at the bottom of the league in money spent but expecting results like you're at the top.

Some other thoughts:

Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox always outspend the competition, both with their MLB payrolls and in the draft. I'm not saying the Astros need to spend 10 million a year in the draft, but the Yankees consistently find bargains in the draft, paying a little more here and there but still spending only 2 million more than the Astros on average. You'll also note that since the Yankees averaged nearly 95 victories per season this decade, they've usually finished behind the Astros in the draft order.

The Red Sox have also had success, but here's an example of how money doesn't provide everything. In 2006, the Red Sox drafted Matt LaPorta late, but couldn't get him signed, even though they were willing to offer him big money for that late in the draft. LaPorta signed with Cleveland for 2 million after the Indians drafted him in the first round of the 2007 draft.

The Astros 2007 class was disastrous on a number of levels, but the most damning evidence is this: Out of 150 possible draft classes, the Astros spent the least money of any team in any season over that time span.

Even though the Washington Nationals doled out a 7.5 million dollar bonus and 15 million in total money to top 2009 draft pick Stephen Strasberg, they still found the money to sign two draft picks outside the first 10 rounds for over-slot money. It only came out to an extra $350,000 dollars, but sometimes that's the difference from having a productive farm system and being barren as the desert.

Following that same line of thought, the Pittsburg Pirates, who picked Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez fifth overall because of his signability, signed two late-round picks for a total of half a million dollars. As I said, I'm not advocating spending money wantonly, but there is a way to spend money smartly in the draft. It just appears the Astros cannot do this.

The median draft value for 2009 should also rise a bit once Kansas City and Texas come to terms with Aaron Crow and Tanner Scheppers, respectively. Each will get deals worth a couple million dollars, which will skew that $5,066,450 number upwards.

Trade Review: Astros-Padres Megaswap

2009-08-27T07:56:00.000-07:00

I know I haven't been my usually prolific blogging self lately, but both jobs have been slamming me with work, giving me very little time to update my spreadsheets and track the end of the minor league season. Never fear, though, because I have been doing some work. You should get two blog posts today, this trade review and then a pitching profile on Chris Hicks. So, without further ado, let's jump into this trade.

When it happened, I was 12 and Ken Caminiti was one of my favorite players, but I don't remember getting terribly upset when he was shipped off to the Padres. If anything, I was angry that he was going to San Diego, which was the favorite team of a good, but obnoxious friend. Of course, I had to dislike any team from San Diego because of it. Still, I wasn't sure what I'd find when looking at this trade, since Derek Bell did have some good seasons and the Astros went to the playoffs with him. With that as your context, here's the analysis of the Padres and Astros mega-deal.

On December 28, 1994, the Houston Astros sent five players to the San Diego Padres for Derek Bell and five other players. The 1994 baseball strike was still chugging along, though Astros General Manager Bob Watson and Padres GM Randy Smith (son of current Astros president Tal Smith) decided to swap the meat of their roster in the kind of high-volume trade that just doesn't happen anymore. The Astros were coming off a shortened 1994 season where they won 66 games and finished a half-game behind the Reds in the NL Central. The Padres, however, struggled to win 47 games and allowed more runs than they scored. Here are the players involved:

Ken Caminiti, a 32-year old third baseman

Steve Finley, a 30-year old center fielder

Andujar Cedeno, a 25-year old shortstop

Roberto Petagine, a 24-year old first baseman

Brian Williams, a 25-year old right-handed pitcher

Derek Bell, a 26-year old center fielder

Doug Brocail, a 27-year old right-handed reliever

Ricky Gutierrez, a 24-year old shortstop

Phil Plantier, a 26-year old left fielder

Craig Shipley, a 32-year old utility infielder

Pedro A. Martinez, a 26-year old right-fielder reliever

With this many players changing hands, let's look at how many seasons each team got out of their haul. The Padres controlled their players for 11 1/2 seasons and paid $30.337 million in salary to their players. The Astros got 13 1/2 seasons of control out of their side and had to pay $21,077,500 to them. On the surface, this appears to be a straight salary dump. The Astros paid out $4.3775 million in 1995 to their players while the Padres paid $10.64 million. It also appears that the Astros were getting the 'prospects' in the deal as three of the six players were drafted in the first or second round, while two of the Padres' new players were in the final season of their contracts and needed pricy extensions after the season. Part of the Astros' 4 million came from Plantier, who was traded back to the Padres in July of 1995 for two pitchers (Jeff Tabaka and Rich Loiselle). Plantier had the highest salary of all six players the Astros received at $2 million, but I'm not sure how much the team assumed of that in the trade.

Clearly, the Astros gave up quite a bit of salary for a couple of young guys in Bell and Gutierrez. Bell was a star player for Houston, finishing 14th in MVP voting in 1995 and leading the team to three straight playoff appearances at the end of the decade. Gutierrez was a decent player, but never won the starting job from either Orlando Miller or Tim Bogar. On the other hand, the Padres picked up the 1996 MVP in Caminiti and an all-star center fielder in Finley. Caminiti also won Gold Gloves in 1995, 1996 and 1997. Both players helped get the Padres into the playoffs in 1996 and into the World Series in 1998.

The other interesting part of this trade is both teams played in pitcher's parks, but only three of the 11 players included in the deal were pitchers. Houston's Astrodome had a park factor of 93, 92, and 93 from 1995 to 1997, while San Diego's Jack Murphy Stadium had park factors 97, 95 and 94 over that same time frame. The Astros logic probably went something like this: we want a high-average hitter who can take advantage of those gaps in the outfield, but can also play one of the corner outfield spots and cover a ton of AstroTurf (which is exactly what they got in Bell, a center fielder until joining Houston). They also picked up a former first round pick in shortstop Gutierrez to shore up their infield defense. For the Padres, they fought their pitcher's park by improving their infield and outfield defenses while gaining some power for the lineup.

Speaking of power, we should discuss the elephant in the room with Cammy. His life and death was one of the saddest and most cautionary tales you can find in professional sports. He admitted before his unfortunate demise that he was a steroid user in 1996 when he had 41 Win Shares and won the MVP. Caminiti did see a power jump after the trade, hitting 66 home runs in two years, but part of that could be attributed to leaving the 'Dome. Current Padres GM Kevin Towers, who was the team's scouting director in 1994, said he suspected Caminiti was using performance-enhancers at the time, and now feels guilty about what happened to him. Towers had a ton of respect for Cammy and since the team was winning, didn't say anything. For Caminiti, the steroids may have helped him overcome the injuries that constantly plagued him, or caused more injuries. One thing is sure: Caminiti was a tough, tough man. My favorite story was during a two-game series the Padres and Mets were playing in Monterrey, Mexico, Caminiti was attached to an IV due to dehydration, diarrhea and nausea, but all he needed was two bags of fluid and a Snicker's bar before hitting two home runs in the second game to key a Padres victory.

So, who were the winners in this trade? On the player side, Caminiti, Finley and Bell all got long-term contracts, which is definitely a victory for them. On the team side, the Astros did win 32 more games over the next five years, but that included 102 and 97 win seasons in 1998 and 1999. Houston improved their win total every season until 1999, while the Padres see-sawed above and below .500 over that same time, with two 90-win seasons and three 70-win seasons. Both teams increased their runs scored totals over the next three seasons and each one outperformed their actual records by a bit. The Padres, though, jumped from 479 runs scored in 1994 to 668 runs scored in 1995. Granted, they played 27 more games in '95, but it's still a significant jump, from 4.09 runs a game to 4.63. The Astros, on the other hand, went from 5.14 runs scored to 5.18.

In the short term, the Padres had a higher winning percentage at .526, compared to the Astros .516 clip over the next two seasons following this deal. The Padres total was also due to a 91-win season in 1996. The Astros won in the long-term with a .557 winning percentage in the five years following the trade compared to the Padres' .516 winning percentage. The Padres made the playoffs twice and the World Series once while the Astros made the playoffs three times. I also calculated a rough Win Share total for 1995 and 1996 with these two teams and the advantage was hugely in the Padres favor. San Diego had an edge of 120 Win Shares to 74, led by almost 70 from Caminiti himself. The Astros, of course, struggled to find a third baseman after trading him away. Over the next ten seasons, Dave Magadan, Sean Berry, Bill Spiers, Caminiti himself, Chris Truby, Vinny Castilla and Morgan Ensberg all started games at the hot corner, with no player starting more than two consecutive seasons.

In the end, this trade was a salary dump through and through. Yes, the Astros did get better, but that was also due to a young rotation emerging and a couple of smart trades by new GM Gerry Hunsicker. The Astros got rid of a couple older, more expensive players but basically just got Bell in return. They got two good years out of Doug Brocail, but shipped him off to Randy Smith, who was then the GM in Detroit. The Padres got an MVP and a World Series loss out of it, so it's safe to say they got the better end of things. It's also telling that two years later, both GMs were looking for new jobs.

Links, Thoughts and a Trade Review

2009-08-21T19:30:00.000-07:00

I just wanted to let you all know I haven't abandoned the gig just yet. I churned out four stories for the paper this week, had a doctor's appointment and a Meet the Teacher night for the Son of the Blog, and went through my busiest time with the day job by kicking a moderate number of kids out of school. Thus, the blog darkness for much of the week. Fear not, fair citizens: I shall be back with more goodness for you. Unfortunately, some of that contains more whining by me about the Astros commitment to the farm system.

First off, some links culled from the past few days that I thought you should read:

This one is brought to you by commenter baseballnerd, and is a really interesting read: http://montgomerynews.com/articles/2009/08/20/souderton_independent/sports
-Did you see the part when Greenwalt mentioned the Astros want to jump the whole rotation up to Double-A next season? Or the part where he mentioned the pitching coordinator wants the guys to throw strikes and give up hits instead of being too fine with their pitches. Could explain some of the lower strikeout rates for Greenwalt, Dydalewicz and Seaton.

If you haven't checked out Farmstros lately, you really should. He's been on a roll the past couple of weeks, being on top of the Mitch Einertson and Gabriel Garcia suspensions, blogging about the Alaniz signing and posting a truly comprehensive database of every player in the Astros system with biographical information and data on when and how they were signed. It's pretty spectactular and a credit to all the work he puts in over there and for the Crawfish Boxes.

Here's a really nice scouting video breaking down Albert Pujol's swing. I don't see this kind of analysis very often, but it's exactly what I'd like to do more of with the kids in the farm system.

Finally, here's a link to an article by MLBTradeRumors where they mention that Padres GM Kevin Towers admitted his team spent 10 million on amateur talent this season (including the draft and international signings). This is what I wanted to touch on before my trade review.

In my post on Wednesday, I talked about whether the Astros are really committed to rebuilding the farm system, or if Drayton is still not committing the money he should be. Now, the signing total laid out was just for draft picks. It didn't include the money for A.J. Alaniz, Kirk Clark, or any of the international free agents. Still, that's a little less than a million total for all the non-draft signings, which leaves the total player development budget at around 4.5 million. The Padres more than doubled that. Of course, San Diego is also in rebuilding mode right now and traded away their most valuable asset at the July 31st deadline in Jake Peavey.

Why should I care if a team that has 52 wins and a 43 million dollar payroll outspends the Astros? At that salary, they're on pace to pay $641,000 per victory this season. They are not making the playoffs, so that seems a reasonable figure. The Astros are also not making the playoffs this season, but with a 103 million dollar payroll, they are on pace to pay 1.275 million per victory in 2009. That's a heck of a lot of money for a sub-.500 team.

The main problem with this comparison is team outlook. The Padres know they are not competing this season, so they shaved payroll, let team icon Trevor Hoffman walk as a free agent, traded away their most expensive players and are stocking up on talented kids to throw against the wall and see who sticks. The Astros, on the other hand, have an entirely different philosophy. As has been chronicled in many, many places, owner Drayton McClain wants to win now and build for the future, so the Astros have to invest in high priced free agents as well as make good decisions in the draft. All this does is slow down the inevitable rebuilding process, which should have begun a couple of years ago.

I know, I know, I'm beating a dead horse. Everyone knows what an uphill battle it is for the Astros to ever invest the kind of money they need to into the farm. I guess we should be happy they are doing as well as they can and not worry about what might have been.

Let's end this post with a quick review of another trade. Since former Astro Billy Wagner is making news in the rumor mill by being placed on waivers, let's look back at the 2003 trade that sent him to the Philadelphia Phillies for Ezequiel Astacio, Brandon Duckworth and Taylor Buchholz.

Like many of the Gerry Hunsicker trades, he got value outside of the trade's jewel in Buchholz. At the time, the then-21-year old was considered one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. Pitching for Double-A Reading that season, Buchholz went 9-11 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He also struck out 119 and walked 33. His numbers were sparkling, and would have placed in among the top 50 pitching prospects in the game.

Duckworth was 27 at the time and coming off a season where he went 4-7 in 24 games and 18 starts with an ERA of 4.94 and 68 strikeouts to 44 walks. Astacio was the least well-known at the time and had pitched in the High-A Florida State League in 2003, going 15-5 with a 3.29 ERA and an 83/29 K/BB ratio. Both were viewed more as filler than anything, but the club did control both Astacio and Buchholz for the next six seasons.

Wagner, on the other hand, was a proven commodity. He was coming off a season where he picked up 44 saves in a league-high 67 appearances with an ERA of 1.78 and a 88/22 K/BB ratio. Wagner was due to make 17 million over the next two seasons, which wasn't a problem for the Astros payroll at the time, which went from 71 million to 75 millon from 2003 to 2004. The problem with Wagner were comments he made right after the Astros were eliminated from the playoff race for the second straight season. Wagner was critical of owner Drayton McClain's willingness to spend money, which angered the owner a great deal. Drayton then allegedly ordered GM Gerry Hunsicker to trade Wagner.

It's impressive that Hunsicker was able to get as much as he did for the best closer in Astros history. With a bullpen that contained Wagner, Octavio Dotel and Brad Lidge, the Astros certainly didn't lack for closer options. Still, it's hard to get value for someone when other teams know you need to trade him.

Now, let's look at what kind of value the teams got from these players. Wagner was worth 6.7 million in 2003 and earned 8 million. In 2004 and 2005, the closer was worth 4.6 million and 7.1 million, meaning he underperformed his contract by 5.2 million dollars. The Astros got negative value for both Astacio and Duckworth. Astacio cost the Astros 2.7 million over the course of two seasons starting in 2005. He made the minimum each season, so he cost the Astros around 3.35 million. Duckworth cost the Astros 2.7 million while earning $900,000 over two seasons before being released after the 2006 campaign.

That just leaves us with Buchholz as the only player in this deal who stood as a possible positive investment. the Astros had already lost around 7 million in value while the Phillies lost 5.2 million, meaning the Astros needed to make up about 2 million in value with the 21-year old. As I said, a young pitcher like him should net the Astros around 16 million in value. Buchholz didn't make a big league appearance until 2006, when he went 6-10 in 22 games and 19 starts with the Astros. His ERA was 5.89 and his WHIP was at 1.25 while striking out 77 and walking 34. He was worth about 1.7 million that season, earning $325,00, meaning the Astros netted about 1.3 million in value for him in 2006.

Of course, new GM Tim Purpura used Buchholz as part of a package of players to get Jason Jennings from the Rockies. Jennings pitched 19 games, including 18 starts for the Astros in 2007, going 2-9 with a 6.45 ERA. Jennings was not offered a contract at the end of the season, so the Astros got one season out of him, but gave up on 7.3 and 5.4 million in value from Buchholz alone. We will revisit that Jennings trade later on, but for now, it's easy to say that Buchholz could have given the Astros another 12.7 million in value if they had held onto him.

So, who were the winners here? I don't know if there were any. The Astros did not get much value in return for their closer, gaining only 8 million in future value for the prospects while the Phillies not only lost 5.2 million in value on Wagner's contract, they also didn't make the playoffs either season. As for Wagner, he talked himself out of a two-year run to the postseason with the Astros, including the franchise's only trip to the World Series. Buchholz was shipped to the pitching wasteland that is Colorado while Astacio was picked up by the Rangers in 2007 and Duckworth was signed by the Royals in 2006. As I said, neither the players, nor the teams really won this trade, which just goes to show you: decisions made based on high emotions, such as anger at your closer for critical comments of you, never work out. Remember that, Drayton, when Roy Oswalt pops off in the offseason about this team.

Ross Seaton Updated Pitching Profile

2009-08-20T12:13:00.000-07:00

As I did with Jordan Lyles, I'm setting out to do a better analysis of Ross Seaton's first full season in professional baseball. Last time we looked at him, he had pitched in five games and won quite a few despite having average statistics. His season has been up and down since then, but the fact is he hasn't jumped out at me as being the kind of can't-miss prospect the Astros saw when they drafted him. Here's a brief recap of his background from my first post:

Seaton is a 19-year old right-handed pitcher from Second Baptist High School in Houston and was selected in the supplemental portion of the third round in 2008. At 6-foot-4 and 190 lbs., the Sugar Land native has definitely got the frame to be a power pitcher. His arm slot is definitely overhand and from what I could tell, it didn't look like his elbow was flying forward before his hand. The scouting report on him mentioned three good pitches, with the possibility of his changeup becoming an average pitch.

I was pretty high on Seaton back then, but my opinion has dropped steadily as the season has gone on. One of the reasons Seaton lasted until the third round was teams didn't think he could be signed away from Tulane and weren't ready to give him first-round money when his fastball velocity dipped due to an injury in the spring. The main reason he was projected to be a good prospect is that his velocity jumped up to around 95 once he was healthy and pitching professionally last season.

I'm not sure what his velocities have been in 2009, but he's been missing bats, as most of his strikeouts have been swinging. I mentioned Seaton was giving up hits to the opposite field when batters did make contact. He's sort of continued that trend, but it's much more subtle now. Instead, the problem Seaton has had with batted balls is giving up too many line drives. In his worst start of the season, back on May 21st, Seaton gave up 11 line drives and only had three of those caught for outs. That's a whole lot of hits falling in, as the 10 hits he gave up in 5 1/3 innings was around 8% of the total number of hits he's given up this season. Now, as I've said before, a pitcher can't control his line drive rate, but that many people knocking the crap out of the ball suggests something was amiss.

In fact, May and July have been the only two months where Seaton gave up more hits than innings pitched. His WHIP this season sits at 1.25, which is very respectable, as is his BB/9 rate of 2.45. Still, Seaton hasn't been overpowering hitters in the Sally League as much as you'd like to see. The South Atlantic League is dominated by pitchers and there are only six hitters in the entire league who are batting over .300. This is the polar opposite of the Astros other Class A affiliate in Lancaster, but Seaton hasn't dominated like you'd expect a Top 5 prospect in your organization to do.

One of the thing that has concerned me all season is the lack of strikeouts from Seaton. In April and May, Seaton totaled 24 strikeouts over nine starts. His numbers improved in June, July and August, as he's struck out 52 in 12 starts since. His K/9 rate has climbed every month until August (which hasn't finished yet) from 5.70 in April, 3.07 in May, 6.40 in June, 7.04 in July and 6.18 in August. His overall K/9 rate of 5.64 is almost two strikeouts lower than the league average of 7.93 K/9. Lexington as a team has a K/9 rate of 7.25. It's a little unfair to compare him to team totals, but I just wanted to underscore why his strikeout totals worry me.

I think the evidence is that he's getting better, though. His G/F ratio is climbing closer to 1.00 each month and he has thrown better since Lexington started using six starters with the addition of David Duncan to the rotation. Seaton has gotten bumped from time to time and missed almost two weeks around the SAL All-Star Break, but has made progress. His best start of the season came on June 1st, when he threw a complete game shutout. Seaton struck out five and walked none, while giving up five line drives. He only allowed one extra base hit, a double with one out in the fifth inning on a line drive to center field. Seaton got a fly ball to left field for the second out before inducing a grounder to second base to end the inning. In none of the nine innings did Seaton allow more than one base runner and the double was the only time an opposing player reached scoring position. His game score of 89 is the highest I've seen this season.

The last point I'd like to touch upon before finishing this up is his workload. As I mentioned, the Astros did insert a new pitcher into that rotation to take some of the stress of the young arms. Lyles and Seaton are already at innings thresholds that I'm not terribly excited about for young guys. Seaton has thrown 121 1/3 innings this season after getting hardly any experience in pro ball last season. In the past two months, he's only started seven games out of 48, so in the remaining 18 on Lexington's schedule, he may start two or three more, which puts him right around 130 innings. While the Astros have limited his number of pitches (I'm assuming) and number of batters faced (I know), it's still a lot of stress to put on young arms. I like what Dewey Robinson and the rest of the Astros pitching coaches have done the past couple of years, but this concerns me. Out of the five Lexington starts at the beginning of the season, odds are one will blow out their arm. You'd hate for it to be Lyles or Seaton.

So, that's the profile right now. Let's chalk up my concerns more to Seaton being young and needing to learn how to pitch. Maybe he can figure out his BABiP and talk with Brian Bannister about how to use your brain in pitching (Seaton's apparently a bright guy). I'd settle for him making it to the Astros rotation healthy and pitching effectively, no matter how he got there. I think he's got a good shot to do that, too.

Draft Pick Signings and More

2009-08-17T07:29:00.000-07:00

Lots going on over the weekend in the minors, including two updates by Bobby Heck on draft pick signings and the Astros adding another undrafted free agent, A.J. Alaniz. Here is a link to Brian McTaggart's blog post about the Alaniz signing. Heck was much more positive there than in this blog post by Zachary Levine. They ultimately didn't get anything done but judging by the performance thus far, had a pretty solid draft. It was the kind of restocking-type draft this farm system needs, as they added durable, dependable and most importantly young players at many different positions.

Still, I'm a little troubled by this article by Baseball America talking about the amount of money all the teams spent on draft picks through Round 10. The Astros clocked in at $3,426,500, which was the sixth-lowest figure in MLB this season. Sure, there were only nine teams that signed as many draft picks as the Astros did, and 14 of the 30 teams spent $4,250,000 or less, so it's not like the Astros were big cheapskates. I just wonder if the Astros went for signability picks instead of the best talent. Since Shelby Miller was picked by the Cardinals right before the Astros had a shot at him, we'll never know whether he would have been the pick over Mier.

Now, I'm also not arguing with the top pick. I like Mier a lot. His glove has been solid and his bat has been a surprise. He's missed some time with injuries to this point, but he is already off to a better start than Jay Austin got off to last season and than third-rounder Telvin Nash is off to this season. Would toolsy outfielder Jared Mitchell have been a better pick, though? Would he have provided an instant impact to the system like Jason Castro has done? I don't have answers. All I can see is that examples like the Colorado Rockies, who portray themselves as a smaller market team. Thus, they rely on prospects to restock their system. This draft, they chose RHP Tyler Matzek despite his very real commitment to Oregon State. It went down to the wire, but Matzek signed and the Rockies got a top-5 talent at the 11th pick in the first round.

This may not even be Bobby Heck's fault. In fact, I'm sure it's not, because he drafted and signed guys last season who commanded big bonuses and got them. So, if it's not Heck, is it Drayton? Did we get one draft class where he spent money to allay the fears that the 2007 draft class brought up, with the top two picks not signing? The consensus is that owners will lobby hard for a slotting system in the next round of collective bargaining, so next year's draft may be entirely different financially. Does Drayton know more than he's letting on and held back the purse strings a little this season, knowing that next year will be different? Publicly, we heard nothing from Heck or Ed Wade which implied they didn't have the money to get deals done.

My gut reaction is this: the Astros are telling us they have changed. They value scouting now. They value their draft picks. That's why lists like the one I linked to above bother me. We're hearing one thing and seeing another. I can come up with plausible explanations, like the payroll being up over 100 million and the Astros needed to trim costs by getting a bunch of slot signings this year in the draft, while next year there will be some more payroll flexibility. It's great the Astros signed 36 of 51 draft picks and I hope they were just thrifty shoppers. I'm just not convinced.

Friday's Trip to the Minors

2009-08-14T09:09:00.000-07:00

Before our brief foray into the top four levels of the minors, here's an update on the Tri-City team:

Left-hander Dallas Keuchel has pitched very well this month. In three games, Keuchel has given up three earned runs in 20 innings while striking out 15 and walking one. He has given up two home runs and has only gotten three runs in support, explaining his three no-decisions. Still, the former Arkansas star couldn't be having a better start to his big-league career and should start next season at Lancaster at least, possibly even Corpus.

Right-hander Wander Alvino has not been as good this month, giving up eight earned runs in 11 innings while striking out six and walking two. Alvino has lost both of his starts and has barely a 1/1 G/F ratio this month. Considering his K/9 rate has not been strong this season, the 22-year old may just not be that good a prospect. It'll be interesting to see if he gets a promotion to Lexington next season.

Outfielder Jacob Goebbert had a rough start to the season, but has bounced back in a big way this month. The 21-year old is 11 for 35 with eight doubles, six RBIs, four runs scored, three walks and five strikeouts. His 6.8 runs created is good for third on the team, behind J.D. Martinez and Barry Butera. Goebbert is also 4 for his last 9 and leads the organization in doubles this month.

Center fielder Brian Kemp has been struggling this month and saw his average drop all the way down to .274/.382/.318 on the season. Kemp is 8 for 37 with two walks, six runs scored and three RBIs and has just one extra-base hit, a triple. The 20-year old has also struck out six times, which is high for him. His lack of plate discipline may have also led to his demotion from the leadoff spot earlier this week.

First baseman/left fielder J.D. Martinez continues to mash, with a line of .405/.435/.643 this month. The 21-year old is 17 for 42 with five doubles, one triple and a home run, driving in a team-high eight runs while scoring another six. Martinez has created 11 runs this month and has created 24 total runs in 119 plate appearances with Tri-City in July and August.

Middle infielder Barry Butera also has been hot this month, since gaining playing time after Brandon Wikoff was promoted to Lexington. Butera is 7 for 17 in his last four games and has hit four doubles and stolen four bases this month. His line of .356/.396/.444 is second only to Martinez on the team, as his his 9 runs created. Butera's season line is a bit low at .246/.331/.299, but since he became a regular, his hitting has improved markedly.

Diminutive second baseman Jose Altuve was called up to Tri-City earlier this week and responded by going 3 for 12 in three games. The 19-year old is the second-youngest position player on the team behind Rene Garcia. It will be interesting to see if Altuve can still hit for power in the higher levels, but he's already hit a double in those three games.

Now for the rest of the minor leagues:

Left-hander Douglas Arguello pitched well for Corpus on Thursday in his return from the DL. Arguello made a few appearances with the GCL Astros and Tri-City before starting for Corpus and has immediately helped their pitching staff. Arguello lasted five innings, giving up three hits and one earned run while striking out three and walking none. The 24-year old did give up one home run and threw 72 pitches total in his return. Pitcher Brad James was thrust into a reliever's role, but he blew the victory for Arguello by giving up two runs in two innings of work for his first blown save. Ryan McKeller picked up his second victory with Corpus by tossing three shutout innings to end the game.

Catcher Jason Castro did not fare as well, going 0 for 5 with two strikeouts to drop his average down to .304....Outfielder Drew Locke, on the other hand, was 4 for 4 with an RBI, raising his average up to .330....Jimmy Van Ostrand and Nick Moresi each hit home runs, while Van Ostrand drove in the winning run on a fly ball single in the bottom of the 10th.

In Lancaster, Koby Clemens extended his hitting streak to 11 games by hitting a home run in the bottom of the first inning. It was Clemens' 16th home run of the season and the two RBIs gave him 102 for the season. Clemens finished the night 1 for 4 with a strikeout.

Right-hander Tip Fairchild tossed a gem of a start at Clear Channel Field, lasting eight innings while giving up eight hits and two earned runs. The 25-year old struck out nine and walked one to pick up his first victory of the 2009 season.

Lexington outfielder Steve Brown continued his torrid pace this month by going 3 for 5 with a double and two runs scored on Thursday. Brown is now hitting .257/.301/.422 and the double was his 16th of the season.

Lexington starter Robert Bono got hit pretty hard, giving up seven runs (four earned) in 5 1/3 innings of work while striking out three and walking none. Reliever Henry Villar followed by giving up four unearned runs in two-thirds of an inning, allowing two hits and one walk while striking out none. Even recently promoted Tri-City pitcher Anthony Noguera got hit some, giving up his first run in Lexington during his fourth appearance. Noguera lasted 2 2/3 innings while giving up three hits and one run, striking out one and walking two.

That's all for now, but I should be caught up now, so next week we'll be on a more normal posting schedule. Until then...

Thursday's Thoughts

2009-08-13T07:13:00.000-07:00

We're going to run through the top of the Astros system first before we get to the short-season teams with Tri-City (a day late) and possibly Greeneville. Without further ado, here are all the news and notes from the Astros minor league system:

Right-hander Polin Trinidad had another good start on Wednesday for Round Rock, pitching seven innings for the third straight game and allowing four hits and two earned runs. The 23-year old struck out four and walked two, giving up one home run. Trinidad has given up a ton of home runs since moving up with the Express, but has averaged a game score of 52 over eight starts in Triple-A. Trinidad is 4-3 over those starts but has not had a FIP under 4.00 since his second start with Round Rock. He's been very good this season, but obviously needs a little more work at this level.

Outfielder Yordany Ramirez has a five-game hitting streak going currently after a 1 for 4 night on Wednesday. Ramirez had another five game streak to start the month, giving him hits in 10 of 11 games in August. The 25-year old has a line of .317/.317/.341 this month with three runs scored, four RBIs, one double and three stolen bases. I still think Ramirez is a good bet to be called up in September as a fifth outfielder.

Third baseman Chris Johnson continues to swing a hot bat in August, going 6 for 12 in his last three games with two home runs and a triple. Johnson now has four home runs and 10 RBIs this month and is hititng .341/.386/.707 with seven runs scored and five strikeouts in 45 plate appearances. He's slightly leading Tommy Manzella in runs created with 10 and has a wOBA of .405. The four home runs this month is his highest total in a single month this season (and he has 18 days left).

Catcher Jason Castro had another 1 for 3 day on Wednesday, walking once and raising his averages to .351/.429/.405 this month. The 22-year old has five walks in August with seven runs scored, five RBIs and two doubles. One of the blogs over at FanGraphs noted that his ISO average has fallen since moving from Lancaster, but this was to be expected. Castro will be a gap hitter and should hit for a pretty good average.

Outfielder Collin DeLome is still slumping pretty hard, going 1 for 11 in his last four games. DeLome did steal a base on Wednesday and has now struck out 10 times. The 22-year old has a line of .154/.241/.154, which is not very good, but he has walked three times already and has scored two runs. Unfortunately, his power has completely disappeared this month and, because his playing time has been spotty, I have to wonder if he's playing through an injury right now.

Outfielder Drew Locke hit another home run on Wednesday, raising his monthly averages to .333/.373/.646 with three home runs, a triple and four doubles. Locke also has nine runs scored and seven RBIs in August with seven strikeouts and three walks. At Locke's age, you expect him to do this, but he's definitely been the best player in Corpus all season and now leads the organziation in RBIs with 102.

Right-hander Leandro Cespedes continued his streak of above-average starts by going seven innings and allowing four hits and one earned run on Wednesday. His K/BB ratio was off a bit as he struck out four and walked five but the 22-year old now has 82 strikeouts in 97 1/3 innings this season. His FIP was 6.06 in this game but his G/F ratio was 12/3 and Cespedes had double-digit ground ball outs for the second straight game.

Catcher/left fielder Koby Clemens has now been hot for going on five straight weeks, extending his hitting streak to 10 games on Wednesday. The 22-year old is 16 for 40 with five walks, eight runs scored, 15 RBIs, three doubles, two home runs and 10 strikeouts in August. His 15 RBIs leads the team and is the most in the organization this month. As farmstros noted, Clemens now has 100 RBIs this season and has created 12 runs this month.

Outfielder Brandon Barnes was recently named Player of the Week by the California League and has gone 15 for 42 this month with seven runs scored, nine RBIs, two doubles, one triple and two home runs. The 23-year old struck out six times in 44 plate appearances but hasn't walked yet and has a line of .357/.372/.619 in August. Barnes also has created 9.7 runs this month with a wOBA of .441, which is the highest on the team.

Second baseman Craig Corrado has struggled this season with a line of .247/.276/.324, but is having a nice August so far. In nine games, the 23-year old is hitting 13 for 37 with one walk, five runs scored, five RBIs, two doubles and six strikeouts. Corrado's line of .351/.368/.405 is one of the best on the team this month. His playing time is cut into by Marco Cabral and now Andrew Simunic but is still getting good at-bats this month.

Left-hander Brad Dydalewicz had a second straight bad start on Wednesday, but didn't get bailed out by his offense and took his fifth loss of the season. The 19-year old gave up seven earned runs and five hits in four innings while walking four and striking out two. Dydalewicz also hit three batters and had a game score of 22. His G/F ratio has been very solid all season at almost 2/1 but has barely been at 1/1 for the past two starts at 11/9. What's also been surprising is that his Power/Finesse Ratio is up to 1.14 overall and hasn't been under 1.00 in three starts. I don't think of Dydalewicz as a power pitcher, especially with 62 strikeouts in 90 innings, but could develop into a power arm.

Road Trip to Lexington

2009-08-12T09:29:00.000-07:00

A rare three post day yesterday, which should be followed by at least two posts today. I'm planning on getting through rundowns of Lexington and Tri-City today before finishing up with Greeneville and the GCL Astros on Thursday. So, without further ado, let's get to Applebee's Park for all the news and notes on Lexington:

Right-hander Ross Seaton continues to do some good things in Lexington, but overall hasn't been as impressive as some make him out to be. Take his two August starts, for instance. In the first, the 18-year old threw six shutout innings, allowing five hits and striking out four. In the second, he lasted just four innings, giving up four hits and six runs (four earned) while striking out three and walking two. His average game score this season is 52 over 20 games and he has amassed 72 strikeouts against 33 walks in 115 1/3 innings. His FIP of 4.14 is a little high, but his HR/9 rate is strong at 0.72.

Right-hander Jordan Lyles has gotten over his mid-July bump in admirable fashion, allowing just three runs in the past 19 innings, striking out 21 and walking four over that stretch. His game scores in his last three have been 72, 57 and 75, though he's gotten just one victory out of this stretch. Lexington has scored one run total in his last two starts, but Lyles maintains an excellent K/9 rate and a Power/Finesse Ratio, while his Defense Efficiency Ratio is a bit low at .660.

Right-hander Kyle Greenwalt has also made two starts in the past 12 days and has a better FIP (3.13) than his ERA (3.97). Greenwalt has thrown 11 1/3 innings, allowing 11 hits and five earned runs while striking out eight and walking four. Greenwalt lost both games, but still has a good G/F rate of 15/10. His BABiP of .314 is right in line with where it should be, so he's pitching close to his true level. Greenwalt didn't make Baseball America's Top 30 list, but has been almost as valuable as Seaton has this season with a Pitching Runs Created total of 36.6.

Left-hander Brad Dydalewicz started two games as well over this stretch of games and had arguably the best streak of the four. The 19-year old threw 11 innings, giving up nine hits and four earned runs while striking out eight and walking four. His ERA of 3.27 was higher than his FIP of 2.84. His G/F ratio of 16/9 is also very good and Dydalewicz continues to avoid line drives, having just one in his past four starts.

Right-hander Kyle Godfrey has been a reliever this season, but is putting a solid season together. In four appearances this month, Godfrey has thrown 8 2/3 innings while giving up six hits and one earned run while striking out five and walking one. The 23-year old has one hold and a sterling G/F ratio of 17/4. His FIP is a bit high at 3.89, especially considering his ERA sits at 1.04, but he doesn't miss many bats. Godfrey has been good all season, starting out in Tri-City and earning a promotion last month.

Second baseman Albert Cartwright leads the Legends with 6.9 runs created in August after going 12 for 43 with four walks, eight runs scored, four RBIs, and three doubles. The 21-year old also stole seven bases in nine attempts, making up for his lack of power. Cartwright has struck out seven times in 49 plate appearances, which is a bit high. Still, it's encouraging to see Cartwright shake off the rust after his hand injury and finally get back on track offensively.

Center fielder Jay Austin has only appeared in five games in the past 12 days and was removed from a game two days ago in his only appearance since last week. Austin is 4 for 16 with three walks, three rusn scored and a triple while striking out once. Austin also stole one base but also was caught stealing once. His season average is hovering around .260, which is much better than what it has been earlier in the season.

Shortstop Brandon Wikoff started out the month strong, but a 1 for 16 stretch over the past four games has dropped his average down to .225/.311/.225 for the month. Wikoff is hitting .321/.387/.321 in 15 games with Lexington and has an average of .299 overall since being drafted out of Illinois-Champagne.

Outfielder Steve Brown was selected as one of farmstros players of the week last period. Indeed, the 22-year old is having a good month, going 13 for 39 with one double, one triple, three home runs, nine runs scored and 11 RBIs. Brown has a couple black marks on his resume, though, as he hasn't walked yet this month and has been caught stealing or picked off five times without a successful stolen base. In fact, Brown has only walked 12 times in 241 at-bats this season. Still, home runs are hard to come by in Lexington and to hit three in one week is impressive. One other note I hadn't realized about Brown...he was signed as an undrafted free agent back in 2003, which means he decided to sign for the minimum possible and play baseball professionally than go to college. Think about that next time you hear that Aaron Crow won't take 3 million from the Royals or that Stephen Strasburg may not sign.

Right fielder Eric Suttle may not have an impressive batting average at .207, but he does manage to walk quite a bit. In fact, he has more walks (8) than hits (6) this monht. Suttle has cooled off some after his hot start in Lexington, but has still been a valuable, and consistent, outfielder after guys like Russell Dixon were sent down and Marquis Williams battled injuries.

Trade Review: Jose Valverde

2009-08-11T20:43:00.001-07:00

Every now and then, I think back on a trade the Astros made in the past few years and it either makes me angry, sad or depressed. To torture myself more, sometimes I comb through the archives to come up with an analysis on exactly how badly a particular trade hurt. This is the first in what may become a recurring series of Trade Reviews. First up, the December 14, 2007 trade of Chris Burke, Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls for Jose 'El Papa Grande' Valverde.

I want to be up front about this. I like Valverde. I like the nickname, I like his antics on the mound and I like his stuff. I think he's a good closer. He helps the Astros win games, which is all you want. What bothers me about this swap is how much we gave up for a ninth-inning pitcher on a team that had just a marginal chance of making the playoffs. So, what did we give up?

Chad Qualls, 30-year old right-hander, drafted in the second round in 2000 out of the University of Nevada, Reno. Pitched in 119 1/3 innings in two seasons, striking out 111 while walking 23 and earning 30 saves with an ERA of 3.16.

Juan Gutierrez, 25-year old right-hander from the Dominican Republic, signed in 2000. Pitched in the minors in 2008, but has thrown 51 2/3 innings in 46 games this season, striking out 53 while walking 25 with a 4.53 ERA.

Chris Burke, 29-year old middle infielder, drafted 10th overall in 2000 out of Tennessee. Got 199 plate appearances in 2008 with Arizona and had a line of .194/.310/.273. Was released in the off-season and signed with San Diego.

What did El Papa Grande do? In 105 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, Valverde has picked up 59 saves, striking out 120 while walking 35 with an ERA of 3.16. That may look familiar, since it's exactly the same ERA Qualls had in more innings. Of course, Valverde suffers because he lost time in 2009 to an injury, but let's look closer at the player values.

Valverde earned 4.7 million in 2008 and will earn 8 million in 2009. After this season, he is a free agent and can sign with any team he wishes. Qualls earned 1.31 milllion in 2008 and 2.53 million in 2009 and still has one year of abitration left. Burke earned 955,000 in 2008 and Gutierrez is earning 401,000 in 2009.

That's 5.2 million in salary going out the door and 12.7 million in salary being added to a team that was already top-heavy with a few big contracts. To look at it from another angle, that's eight seasons of pitching the Astros traded away for two seasons of a closer. But, you say, those 59 saves Valverde picked up have to be valuable. Who would have closed if he had not been acquired?

Fan Graphs has assigned a monetary value based on player performance for each guy involved in the trade, so we can break this down even further. Valverde has been worth 4.6 million over the past two seasons, while Qualls has been worth 14.6 million and Gutierrez worth 5.4 million. Even if you count the negative 100,000 Burke was worth in 2008, the Astros still handed away some very valuable seasons of bullpen help that would have cost them less than they are paying for now.

Another knock on Qualls when he was with the Astros is that he gave up too many home runs. In a more hitter friendly park than Minute Maid, Qualls has given up eight home runs in the past two seasons while Valverde has given up 15. The only significant difference between the two is that Valverde can miss more bats, giving him a higher strikeout total.

Granted, we don't know if Gutierrez will pan out past this season, but he was one of the top 30 Astros prospects in 2007. Qualls also was a playoff-tested reliever heading into the 2008 season, so he could have been counted on to close as well. This trade was a classic over-reaction by the new General Manager Ed Wade, hired three months before this move. Wade has made some good pickups in LaTroy Hawkins, Alberto Arias and Darin Erstad, but whiffing on Valverde left him tied up financially and unable to make any significant moves last winter and this summer. Some GMs realize you can't give up multiple seasons of cheap players for expensive veterans; I just wish the Astros could get with the program.

Road Trip to Lancaster

2009-08-11T13:41:00.000-07:00

And now for a quick rundown of Lancaster's last 10 days:

Right-handed starter Chris Hicks has been just as enigmatic as usual in the past 10 days. Hicks had a good start last week, with a game score of 57 and then lasted just 1 2/3 innings in his next start. The 22-year old has struck out eight and walked five in 7 2/3 innings, giving up 11 hits and 10 earned runs, one of which was on a home run. Hicks has a 8/7 G/F ratio and a FIP of 4.77, much lower than his ERA of 11.74 this month. His K/9 rate of 9.39 is excellent as always and his BABiP of .400 suggests his numbers will fall.

Right-hander Leandro Cespedes started just one game this month, but it was a doozy. The 22-year old put up a game score of 79, his highest this season after lasting nine innings in an extra-innings loss. Cespedes gave up five hits and two unearned runs, striking out seven and walking one to get a no-decision. He also had a good G/F ratio of 12/7 and a FIP of 1.98.

Catcher/left fielder Koby Clemens is following up his excellent month of July with a good start in August. Clemens has an eight-game hitting streak currently and is hitting .406/.459/.594 this month. The 22-year old has hit one home run and three doubles, scoring six runs and driving in 11 more. Clemens has struck out nine times but has also walked four times in 36 plate appearances. His 9.6 runs created this month are second on the team.

Center fielder J.B. Shuck is also batting .400 this month, and has created 10 runs so far. In eight games, Shuck is 16 for 39 with two walks, four doubles, one triple, seven runs scored and four RBIs. His line of .410/.439/.564 is the highest on the team and his wOBA of .423 is second only to Brandon Barnes. Shuck also stole his 18th base of the season in his only attempt.

Right fielder Jon Gaston is still struggling a bit this month, going 7 for 30 with two doubles, a triple and a home run. He's driven in just three runs this month and has struck out 12 times. How he was named Astros player of the month for July over Clemens, I don't have a clue; all I know is he's not been as good as his press clippings lately.

First baseman Matt Weston has seen his average stay high this August, but his power has dipped in the past eight games. The 24-year old former University of Houston player is 9 for 31 with five walks and 11 strikeouts but has hit just three doubles. Compared to his July, when Weston hit 21 XBH, this month's total is lagging a bit one-third of the way through the month.

Catcher Jordan Comadena has played more in the past eight games than he has in two months, starting three games and picking up two at-bats in another. Comadena is the backup catcher when Clemens is not starting, but is just 2 for 9 in four games with two walks and one strikeout.

Second baseman Andrew Simunic was promoted from Lexington and promptly went 1 for 3 with an RBI in his first start. The 23-year old undrafted free agent out of Tennessee is hitting .288/.404/.306 in 56 games this season, mostly with Lexington.

Third baseman Ebert Rosario has also thrived once freed from Lexington, going 9 for 31 with a home run, eight runs scored and five RBIs. Rosario has been primarily batting out of two two-hole in the lineup, explaining all the runs and the relative lack of RBIs. Still, Rosario has only struck out three times in 40 plate appearances, which is a talent in rare commodity in Lancaster. His usefulness at the top of the order makes the 22-year old more valuable even though his power has yet to show itself.

Road Trip to Corpus Christ

2009-08-11T06:54:00.000-07:00

This week, I think it will work better if we break each roundup into minor league levels. So, today, we'll visit Corpus Christi and Lancaster to see what's been going on in the last 10 days. Of course, news broke over the weekend that Mitch Einertson has been suspended for 50 games after a second positive drug test. According to farmstros, Einertson did not test positive for performance enhancers, but for recreational drugs. The Astros signed former Hooks outfielder Ray Sadler to take his spot, rather than make a late-season call-up from Lancaster. With that, let's get to all the news and notes you can handle from the city by the Bay:

Right-handed pitcher Brad James lost his ninth and tenth games of the season last week. The 23-year old pitched seven total innings over the two starts, lasting one inning in the first and six in the second. James gave up 11 hits and 11 earned runs, striking out five and walking four. More distressing is that James, a sinkerballer with a high ground ball rate, has given up two home runs and has a 5/10 G/F ratio. James also hit four batters, indicating he may be having control problems, though he actually has more strikeouts than walks for the first time in a while.

Right-handed pitcher Sergio Perez has been better, going 1-1 in two starts, lasting 11 total innings while getting 12 hits and six earned runs. The 23-year old struck out eight and walked two, giving up two home runs in his second start. His FIP of 4.65 is just south of his ERA of 4.91, though his WHIP is a very good 1.27. I still lean towards Perez being better in the bullpen long-term, but keeping him in the rotation right now can't hurt anything.

Right-handed pitcher Chia-Jen Lo has appeared in just three games this month, striking out three and walking one in 4 2/3 innings. The 23-year old allowed two hits and one earned run without picking up any decisions. Lo's averages (1.93 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 2.56 FIP) are excellent, but his BABiP of .154 suggests this hot streak won't continue for long.

Outfielder Drew Locke started out hot in August, going 15 for 44 with four doubles, one triple, two home runs, eight runs scored, six RBIs, three walks and six strikeouts. Locke's 10 runs created this month is twice the total of the second-best hitter. Only one other player has a higher weighted OBA than Locke's .375 (we'll get to him later). Still, the Hooks only could muster a 4-7 record in August, dropping their overall record to 19-25 in the second half of the season.

Catcher Jason Castro leads Corpus Christi in batting average and has a line of .353/.421/.412 in 38 plate appearances. Castro only has two doubles but has also scored seven runs and driven in another five. Castro has a wOBA of .326 and has raised his season averages up to .312/.368/.409. Castro's catcher's ERA is also at 4.83 in eight games this month, which is a bit high, but he doesn't have much to work with on that pitching staff.

Center fielder Nick Moresi is having his best stretch of games to date in 2009. In nine games this month, the 24-year old former Fresno State star is 11 for 33 with five doubles, five runs scored, five RBis and one home run. Moresi was promoted more for his defense than his bat, as he's got a career line of just .222/.289/.353.

Shortstop Wladimir Sutil has been just okay this month, going 12 for 45 with three walks, seven runs scored and three RBIs. Still, he's only had three doubles and has been caught stealing once and picked off another time. His line of .267/.327/.333 is down from his season averages, even though he's had one 4 for 5 day this month.

Short Trip to Round Rock

2009-08-10T14:43:00.000-07:00

Hi everyone...sorry for the blackout last week. The move proved much, MUCH more difficult than I had anticipated, as I never really fathomed just how much stuff my wife had squirreled away in her office. I still don't have internet access at home, but was able to look at the past nine days at Round Rock and get some cogent thoughts:

First, a link to an article I did for astrosdaily.com that you might find interesting.

Casey Daigle was named Round Rock's Pitcher of the Month for July, and has continued to pitch well in August. Daigle has appeared in four games, throwing four innings while allowing six hits and one walk, striking out eight. The 28-year old also picked up two holds and has a FIP of 0.70 for August.

Polin Trinidad had two up-and-down starts last week. He lasted seven innings in each, splitting the two decisions with a victory and a loss. Trinidad struck out nine and walked just one but gave up 12 hits and eight earned runs. His FIP of 5.84 is actually higher than his ERA of 5.14 even though his strikeouts have been relatively high. Trinidad remains the youngest starter in Round Rock, and even with the recent promotions of Bud Norris and Yorman Bazardo, probably won't be considered for a call up until next season.

Erick Abreu was promoted from Corpus and put into the Express starting rotation. He's won both of his starts, striking out nine and walking three over 11 2/3 innings. The 25-year old gave up 12 hits and four earned runs but has a high G/F ratio of 7/19.

Sammy Gervacio didn't spend much time with the Astros, but has been throwing gas since his demotion. In three appearances this month, Gervacio has struck out eight and walked one while allowing no hits or runs. The 24-year old picked up two holds and has a FIP of 0.41.

Yordany Ramirez continues to ride a hot bat, though he's still not walking at all and his power has dried up a bit. The 25-year old is finally using his speed to his advantage, though, stealing three bases in eight games this month. Ramirez has 13 stolen bases on the season and has gone 10 for 30 this month with three strikeouts.

Brian Bogusevic has also gone steal-happy and was successful on all three of his attempts this month. Bogey is 8 for 31 with three walks, five runs scored, one RBI, a double and five strikeouts. Former Tulane teammate Tommy Manzella has been a little better, going 10 for 32 with seven RBIs, one home run and a double this month.

Chris Johnson hit two home runs over the weekend in the same game, but hasn't hit much this month. In eight games, he's 8 for 29 with a double, the two home runs, four RBIs and three runs scored. Johnson has also struck out four times and walked three times.

J.R. Towles has not returned yet from his latest injury, which may be one of the reasons the Astros haven't pulled the plug on the Pudge Rodriguez experiment yet. Towles is getting older and may be best suited as a backup catcher to Corpus Christi's Jason Castro.

The Week Ahead

2009-08-03T06:40:00.000-07:00

Just wanted to give you an update on what's going on the next few days. I've got a workshop to go to this afternoon, so that means no recap on the weekend's games. What I will get to today is the July Players of the Month.

As for the rest of the week, I am moving on Wednesday, so I expect to be out of the loop until Friday. I might have a post or two up tomorrow, but it could be a slow week.

July Players of the Month

2009-08-02T06:56:00.000-07:00

Triple-A (Round Rock Express)

(Age, year and round drafted)

Hitter of the Month: Mark Saccomanno, 1B (28, 23rd in 2003): This was Tommy Manzella's spot to lose for most of this month, and the shortstop did nothing to NOT win this award. Saccomanno, however, went nuts in the last week of July to take over the Runs Created lead from Manzella. In seven games last week, Saccomanno went 10 for 26 with three home runs, a triple, seven RBIs, seven runs scored, three walks, four strikeouts and a stolen base. His Runs Created total of 19 combined with his weighted OBA of .328 were boht the highest on the team. Saccomanno also led the Express with 12 walks in July, giving him a line of .320/.418/.547 this month.

Pitcher of the Month: Bud Norris, RHP (24, sixth in 2006): Norris was called up by the Astros a week ago, but had a great month of July leading up to it. In five starts, Norris threw 33 innings, allowing 33 hits and 15 runs (14 earned). The 24-year old struck out 24 and walked 11 in July, giving up one home run and hitting one batter. His record of 1-4 was bad only because his run support in July was 2.2 runs a game. His traditional stats are very solid but his peripherals are even better. His BABiP is at .333, meaning he gave up a few more hits than he should have. His FIP reflects this as it sits at 3.23, about half a run lower than his ERA of 3.82. When his BAA is at .230 for the month AND he was unlucky to get there, you can see why the Astros called him up. I've written about his control in the past here, and it still concerns me. If he keeps throwing shutouts up in Houston, though, it might be a moot point.
Double-A (Corpus Christi Hooks)

Hitter of the Month: Drew Locke, LF (26, 19th, 2005 by LA Dodgers): Locke struggled hitting for power at the beginning of July, but finished with more home runs than teammate Collin DeLome with five. Locke also led the Hooks with 34 hits this month and 23 RBIs. The 26-year old created 21 runs this month, bringing his season total to 71.8. His wOBA is at .313, which is a tick higher than both DeLome and Jason Castro but lower than team leader Mark Ori (.331). Locke's adjusted OPS is at .885, so his numbers haven't been affected much by Whataburger Field. His line of .318/.372/.514 helped raise his season averages to .326/.375/.511. Right now, he's the prohibitive favorite to be the team MVP, though Drew Meyer and DeLome are both in the mix.

Pitcher of the Month: Erick Abreu, RHP (25, signed out of Dominican Republic by NY Yankees): The pitching at Corpus has been awful this season. Any time a pitcher does well here, they're either promoted or injured. Hence, the last three players of the month are not on the team's active roster (T.J. Burton and Polin Trinidad were promoted; Douglas Arguello is injured). Abreu put up the best numbers of any pitcher in Corpus last month and was promptly promoted to Round Rock for last Friday's double-header. In 15 2/3 innings with the Hooks, Abreu had a 1.15 ERA and 15 strikeouts with three walks. His FIP of 2.69 was still excellent, though his BABiP of .114 suggests he's in for a harsh correction eventually. Still, a reliever who has a K/9 rate of 8.62 is always nice to have and helped Abreu beat out fellow relievers Danny Meszaros and Chia-Jen Lo for the POM award.
High-A (Lancaster JetHawks)

Hitter of the Month: Koby Clemens, C/LF (22, eighth in 2005): What can I say about Clemens that I haven't said already this month? I'll just let the stats speak for themselves: .394/.460/.807, 1.195 adjusted OPS, .531 BABiP, .477 wOBA, 42.7 Runs Created, 43 hits, nine walks, 25 runs scored, 37 RBIs, 14 doubles, two triples, nine home runs, hit by a pitch five times, one sacrifice fly, two stolen bases, one sacrifice hit, reached base on an error once, 37 strikeouts in 120 plate appearances, 88 total bases. He has more total bases in July than five of his teammates have for the entire season. His 42 runs created this month are more than all but three Round Rock players and four Corpus Christ players have for the entire season. Did I mention he moved into the outfield this month, and since T.J. Steele reinjured whatever he injured the first time, Clemens has been playing a decent left field. Yeah, I'd say that was a good month.

Pitcher of the Month: Shane Wolf, RHP (22, 26th in 2008): You might not have seen this one coming. Wolf had been in the starting rotation earlier in the season, but was demoted due to ineffectiveness. This month, however, he strung together his best eight appearances of the season, starting two games and finishing the month with an average ERA of 4.82. His FIP, however, was a sterling 2.84 and was the lowest number of any pitcher with at least 20 innings pitched in July. Wofl struck out 25 and walked 9 while going 2-2. His BABiP of .317 means he's been a touch unlucky, but not so much so to adversely affect these numbers. Wolf has given up a few more hits than you'd like with 27 in 28 innings, but his WHIP of 1.29 in the context of Clear Channel Stadium is pretty stellar.

Low-A (Lexington Legends)

Hitter of the Month: Jay Austin, CF (18, second in 2008): You might not have seen this one coming. Wait, maybe you did. Is it because Austin has been the lone bright spot in this offense (excluding Brian Pelligrini)? Or is it because I mentioned him every day until his amazing streak earlier this month ended? Or is it because I equally played up his hitless streak at the end of the month? So, what did Austin end up at in July? His line was .290/.333/.430 by the end, going 31 for 107 with seven walks, 13 runs scored, 10 RBIs, four doubles, four triples, one home run, one intentional walk, two sacrifice hits and 10 stolen bases in 11 attempts. Austin also struck out 21 times in 116 plate appearances and had 46 total bases. His wOBA of .288 led the team (excluding Brandon Wikoff, who only played with the Legends for four games) as did his 17 runs created. I'm not nearly as disappointed in his season as I was two months ago...I just hope he can maintain some semblance of consistency.

Pitcher of the Month: Jordan Lyles, RHP (19, supplemental first in 2008): Another no-brainer, cinched by Lyles' six shutout innings on Friday night, where he struck out eight, walked two and gave up three hits. Lyles finished the month with 30 strikeouts in 28 innings, allowing 28 hits and 14 walks over five starts. The 18-year old also had a BABiP of .389 and didn't give up any home runs in July. His FIP of 3.09 reflects some of his unluckiness with the BABiP, but his sterling K/9 rate of 9.64 more than makes up for it. His Pitching Runs Created total of 43.9 puts him a notch below the guys at Triple-A (Polin Trinidad, Bud Norris and Yorman Bazardo), but he does have the most of anyone outside that trio.

Short Season (Tri-City ValleyCats)

Hitter of the Month: J.D. Martinez, LF/1B (21, 20th in 2009): The 21-year old out of Nova Southeastern University has not stopped hitting since being drafted by the Astros in June. He hit .403/.446/.740 in 19 games with Greeneville and was named POM for June at that level. He was then promoted to Tri-City and played 21 games in July with the ValleyCats, hitting .370/.392/.589 with seven doubles, three home runs, seven runs scored, 17 RBIs and four walks. Martinez posted a wOBA of .377 and had 13 runs created in 73 at-bats.

Pitcher of the Month: Wander Alvino, RHP (22, signed out of Dominican Republic in 2007): Alvino did well in July, don't get me wrong. There weren't a ton of great candidates for this, though, just a bunch of good ones. Alvino's numbers looked okay, going 2-1 in five starts with 19 strikeouts and seven walks in 31 1/3 innings. His ERA of 4.02 was also very solid and looked even better as an FIP of 3.17. The only really troubling parts of his stat line are his strikeout total and K/9 rates. At 5.46 K/9, Alvino is really pushing the threshold of success. If he can't strike anyone out in short season ball, how will he do in the upper levels of the minor leagues? Add to that his BABiP of .284 meaning he's been lucky this month, and there are some definite warning signs. Still, Alvino was the most effective pitcher in Tri-City and deserves all the plaudits he can get.
Rookie (Greeneville Astros)

Hitter of the Month: Jose Altuve, 2B (19, signed out of Venezuela in 2006): The Little Engine that Could hit .330/.433/.550 in 26 games this month. Listed at 5-foot-5, 148 lbs., Altuve doesn't seem like the kind of hitter who would ordinarily put up this kind of power (Dustin Pedroia excepted), but a commenter over at the Crawfish Boxes suggested that the Appalachian League may allow the use of composite baseball bats. I've been able to neither confirm or deny this, so until then, it's one of many explanations for Altuve's surprising power. In 119 plate appearances, Altuve had 14 extra-base hits, including nine doubles, two triples and three home runs. His 24 runs created led the team by almost 10 runs and his wOBA was only eclipsed by J.D. Martinez' incredible .492 wOBA.

Pitcher of the Month: Juri Perez, RHP (18, signed out of Venezuela in 2007): Perez is another little guy (5-11, 148 lbs.) but can apparently miss some bats. In six appearances, including two starts this month, Perez struck out 26 and walked 6 over the course of 18 1/3 innings. Perez gave up just 13 hits, though four of those were home runs. His G/F ratio of 1.31 is very solid and suggests he can continue this run of good pitching.

Gulf Coast League (GCL Astros)

Hitter of the Month: Emilio King, RF (19, 2006 out of Dominican Republic): Again, King wins the GCL POM. With a line of .291/.412/.430, King demonstrates a good eye and a bit of pop. The entire GCL Astros team couldn't hit for much power this month, so I don't hold that against him. He also posted 16.7 runs created, a wOBA of .313 and led the team with nine extra base hits. King still struck out 15 times in 89 at-bats, which would be okay at an upper level of the minors, but here it seems a bit much. We'll see how he continues to progress, though.

Pitcher of the Month: Tanner Bushue, RHP (17, second round in 2009): Last, but certainly not least, we come to the Astros' second round pick this season, Tanner Bushue. In four starts in July, Bushue did not post a game score under 50, striking out 19 in 19 2/3 innings while walking four and giving up 15 hits. He also only allowed three line drives the entire month and had a G/F ratio of 22/18. His FIP of 3.33 was higher than his ERA of 2.42 but his K/9 rate of 7.66 in five starts is excellent. Small, small sample size, but his peripheral stats are as encouraging as Lyles' were at this point last season.

Friday's Trip to the Minors

2009-07-31T07:10:00.000-07:00

With the torrential rains that have pounded the Astros farm system lately, it's a wonder that none of the prospects have been washed away yet. Greeneville hasn't played a game since Monday because of rain, Round Rock's game on Thursday was moved to a double-header on Friday because of rain and Lexington, well, Lexington just had a regularly scheduled off-day. But still, that's a lot of rain. So, we have four games to go through today. Without further ado, here's all the news and notes from around the Astros farm system:

Reliever Sammy Gervacio was called up from Round Rock on Thursday after Russ Ortiz was released. The 24-year old appeared in 35 games this season, pitching 46 2/3 innings for Round Rock and striking out 48 while walking 20. His FIP of 4.01 is significantly lower than his ERA of 5.40, mainly because his K/9 rate is at 9.26. His BB/9 rate is not as good at 3.86 but it's definitely playable in the bullpen. Gervacio's BABiP sits at .306, which means he hasn't been lucky or unlucky, so this is a good snapshot of the player the Astros are getting. He's a little like Alberto Arias, but with a livelier fastball and a funkier delivery.

Sergio Perez didn't pitch badly for Corpus on Thursday, lasting three innings while giving up five hits and three runs (two earned), striking out two and walking three. Perez only threw 66 pitches before leaving the game in Ryan McKeller's hands. McKeller, Tyler Lumsden and Evan Englebrook each made scoreless appearances, with McKeller throwing three innings and Lumsden and Englebrook putting up zeroes in the eighth and ninth innings, respectively. Interestingly, all three were relievers at Round Rock earlier in the season before being demoted to Corpus. Lumsden picked up his first victory as a Hook and Englebrook got his first save. No word on whether Perez' quick exit was due to an injury.

Drew Locke, Jason Castro and Wladimir Sutil each had big days at the plate. Locke went 2 for 4 with a double, a home run, two runs scored, two RBIs and a walk. Locke's home run was his 16th of the season and fourth this month. The 26-year old is now one home run shy of team leader Collin DeLome....Wladimir Sutil also got in on the hit parade, going 2 for 5 and scoring a run. Sutil's hitting .268/.349/.320 this month, but was just 1 for 12 before Thursday. The 24-year old is hitting .289/.369/.345 in 87 games.

Castro also had a multi-hit game, going 3 for 5 with two doubles and two runs scored. The 22-year old's average is up to .309 at Corpus and the doubles were his sixth and seventh since his call up from Lancaster. Since July 21, Castro has hit six of those seven doubles, adding a triple, eight RBIs and 12 runs scored. Castro is 15 for 38 over that stretch, bringing his season average up 32 points from .277. Another interesting fact: Castro also batted .309 in 56 games with Lancaster, so his total season average is also .309. Maybe he should consider wearing 30, 9 or 39 in the pros.

Ebert Rosario had his best game as a JetHawk on Thursday, going 2 for 4 with a walk, an RBI and a strikeout. The 22-year old third baseman is batting .205/.244/.256 in nine games since being called up and is hitting .265 on the season. Rosario hit second on Thursday and has batted in the top half of the order every game he's played in Lancaster.

Koby Clemens just won't quit. The 22-year old started in left field on Thursday, which is something he's been doing since T.J. Steele went on the DL about a week ago, and picked up another two hits. More impressive is that Clemens did it from the cleanup spot and the two hits were a triple and a home run. Clemens has now scored 48 runs for Lancaster and is hitting .402/.460/.821. That's an OPS of 1.281 for those counting at home. What's more, his home/road splits aren't too out of sync with his season line, as Clemens is hitting .349/.411/.651 at home and .326/.412/.567 in away games.

I'm a little shocked by this, so bear with me as we get through this together. Lancaster's starter Shane Wolf combined with reliever Jack Tilghman to pitch a nine inning...shutout! The two twirled a five-hitter and Wolf had a game score of 72 after striking out nine in six innings and allowing just four hits and one walk. Tilghman got his third save after allowing just one hit in the final three innings, striking out two and walking one. Wolf started the season in the rotation, but was ineffective and was sent to the bullpen. Lately, he's strung together some good relief appearances, so was given a chance to start on Thursday. I'd say he came through brilliantly.

Not a lot happened in Tri-City, as third baseman Erik Castro was probably the offensive star, going 1 for 3 with two runs scored and a walk. However, Castro also struck out once, was picked off once and caught stealing another time, so his production was kind of a wash. Castro is hitting .236/.374/.486 this season, thanks to 16 walks in 72 at-bats combined with six doubles and four home runs. It's safe to say the hits will come eventually. You know the difference between hitting .250 and .300? It's 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium.

Starter Colton Pitkin got roughed up on Thursday, giving up eight hits and five earned runs in four innings, striking out two and walking three. Pitkin also had a bad G/F ratio of 2/6 and gave up a home run. I don't want to get into too much detail on him, because I want to do a profile later on. Suffice it to say his game score was 25 and the average is 50. Not good, my friends, not good at all.

Outfielder Telvin Nash had his best day as an Astro on Thursday, going 3 for 5 with a double and an RBI. The big 18-year old is batting .176/.247/.279 in July and .190 overall this season, but has shown a little power with six doubles and a triple. I should mention again that he's still a teenager and that we shouldn't worry too much about him struggling through his first 84 professional at-bats. Something about small sample sizes and all.

2009 sixth round pick Enrique Hernandez continues to play well, however, going 3 for 5 with a double and a run scored on Thursday. The 19-year old is hitting .298/.323/.383 in July and .304/.342/.375 in 112 at-bats this season.

That's all for now, but look for something else today, as I decide whether to do a profile of a young pitcher or to come up with something else for your reading please. Till then...

Thursday's Thoughts

2009-07-29T23:47:00.000-07:00

I'm off today, so this quick and dirty look at the Astros minor league system comes to you live from early Thursday morning. We'll try to get something more in line with my usual 2,500 word posts on Friday. Without further ado, here's the news and notes from Wednesday's minor league games:

Jose Capellan started for Round Rock on Wednesday and was very effective. In six innings, Capellan gave up three hits and one earned run while striking out six and walking one. In addition, Capellan went 2 for 2 at the plate and had a sacrifice hit. To top it all off, the long reliever who was starting for the first time since late April needed just 74 pitches to get through his innings.

Outfielder Brian Bogusevic picked up two more hits on Wednesday, going 2 for 4 with two runs scored and a walk. They were the 49th and 50th runs of the season for Bogey, as the 25-year old has batted in the top three lineup spots for the majority of the season.

A few short notes on Round Rock: Chris Johnson picked up his first hit in three games, going 1 for 4 with a strikeout and a GIDP.... Mark Saccomanno hit his 12th home run, going 3 for 4 with two RBIs and a run scored. It was the second straight game with a homer for the 29-year old from Baylor....Three different relievers threw a scoreless inning, each striking out one batter. Geoff Geary and Sammy Gervacio each earned holds while Casey Daigle picked up a save. Since former closer Chad Paronto was called up to the Astros then designated for assignment, Daigle has finished two games.

Not as much going on in Corpus, but there were some middlingly interesting things in the box score. For instance, Danny Meszaros threw three innings in relief, striking out two and lowering his ERA to 4.47. It was the longest outing I can recall this season for Meszaros but I'll double check that and get back to you on Friday. Former Rice pitcher Kenny Baugh picked up his second victory since joining the Hooks this month.

Collin DeLome didn't get a hit on Wednesday, but he did walk once and stole his 14th base of the season. DeLome also struck out once, but the walk and steal added more value in my eyes, so I won't hold it against him. This time...

Minor notes on the Hooks: Jhon Florentino extended his hitting streak to six games by going 1 for 4 on Wednesday. Florentino had a day off on Tuesday.... Jason Catro went 3 for 4 and has his season average hundreths of a point away from .300....Drew Locke hit two home runs, giving him 15 this season and continuing his run of extra-base hits that started when I called him out in this space a week or so ago. Maybe he just fixed his swing and adjusted to the pitchers. I still think it was all Minor Musings...

An absolute shootout took place in Lancaster as the JetHawks and High Desert combined for 17 runs and 24 hits. Starter Casey Hudspeth picked up the victory for Lancaster by allowing just two earned runs over seven innings. Reliever Ashton Mowdy was actually having a good start in Lancaster before giving up five hits and five runs without recording an out in the eighth inning. Mowdy still has a great strikeout rate, if that's any consolation.

Jon Gaston hit his 29th home run on Wednesday and is now two home runs away from tying the Lancaster single-season record of 31 set by Kyle Nichols in 2003. Koby Clemens also hit a home run on Wednesday, his 12th this season, and went 4 for 5 at the plate. The 22-year old now has multi-hit games in 6 of his last 10 starts.

Jay Austin finally broke his hitless streak, going 1 for 5 on Wednesday but still saw his season average drop down to .259. Austin did pick up an outfield assist, though, so it doesn't seem like he's letting his recent hitting struggles affect his defensive play.

Brandon Wikoff went 2 for 3 with a run scored and a walk, but was caught stealing on his only attempt on Wednesday. Wikoff is batting .455 since his callup from Tri-City three days ago.

Robert Bono put up a rather forgettable start on Wednesday. The 20-year old lasted 5 2/3 innings, striking out one and walking two while giving up seven hits and two earned runs. The right-hander still has a sub-3.00 ERA but hasn't been striking many guys out in his last couple of starts, so his numbers may soon regress.

Former Texas A&M pitcher Scott Migl put together his best appearance of the season on Wednesday, pitching 1 1/3 innings for Tri-City without giving up a run. Migl struck out one and walked none, lowering his ERA to 11.13. Migl battled injury problems while at A&M, but if he can stay healthy, has the arm to be a good prospect.

Third baseman Erik Castro reached base all four times he went to the plate on Wednesday, going 1 for 1 with a run scored, a double and three walks. Castro is hitting .232 this season, but has not played regularly since college, where he caught No. 1 oveall draft pick Steven Strasberg. Castro is making the transition from catcher to third, giving the Astros more depth at the position.

Former Stanford pitcher Brandt Walker wasn't bad on Wednesday, he just wasn't that great either. Walker gave up just two hits and two runs in 4 1/3 innings, while striking out four and walking six. The 21-year old has had a devil of a time finding the strike zone since being drafted. Walker has walked 22 batters in 27 1/3 innings while striking out 20. For those of you scoring at home, that's not a good ratio at all and makes for a BB/9 rate of 7.24.

That does it for today, but I'll be back on Friday, so stay tuned...

Wednesday's Rundown, Part II

2009-07-29T11:31:00.000-07:00

Continuing on:

Right-hander Chris Hicks was lit up on Tuesday for Lancaster. Though it wasn't as bad as Round Rock's game, Hicks did give up eight runs (seven earned) and 10 hits in six innings. The 22-year old struck out five and walked one while giving up three home runs. If you neutralize his stats for this season, taking Clear Channel Stadium and its hitter-friendly confines out of the equation, Hicks looks like a fairly good pitcher. In 102 innings, Hicks has given up 134 hits, 15 home runs, 30 walks and struck out 78. If we take the ballpark factor out of these numbers, we see Hicks should have around 126 hits, 84 strikeouts, 31 walks and 13 home runs. His K/9 rate goes up from 6.88 to 7.40, his BAA goes down from .312 to .295 and his ERA drops from 5.50 to 4.57. Interestingly enough, his adjusted ERA is almost right in line with his FIP of 4.52.

Outfielder T.J. Steele returns from his hamstring injury with authority, going 3 for 4 with a double, a triple and two runs scored on Tuesday. Steele had missed two weeks with the injury but is still batting .327/.351/.473 in 57 plate appearances this month.

Outfielder Brandon Barnes hit his seventh home run since joining Lancaster and his fourth this month. the 23-year old former football player is 29 for 99 with nine walks, 23 runs scored, 20 RBIs, six doubles and 22 strikeouts in July, giving him a line of .293/.355/.475. On any other team, his Runs Created total of 16.4 would put him in contention for the team lead, but he's a distant fifth in Lancaster, behind Koby Clemens, Jon Gaston, Matt Weston and J.B. Shuck.

Center fielder Jay Austin went hitless again, making him 0 for his last 21 at-bats. The 18-year old has walked three times in the past two games, so he's at least getting on base, which is something he hasn't done consistently this season. In 83 games, Austin has 25 walks compared to 65 strikeouts. He doesn't strike out a ton, but does need to take a few more pitches as he learns and develops.

Shortstop Brandon Wikoff had two hits on Tuesday in his second game with Lexington. The 21-year old is now 3 for 8 with one strikeout in two games with the Legends, and, if the next paragraph's evidence is any indication, is helping stabilize the infield defense there. With the return of Albert Cartwright and the promotion of Jeff Hulett, Lexington has an all-new infield, which will hopefully help out those young pitchers, since the team has a Defense Effiency Ratio of .700 on the season.

Left-hander David Duncan pitched well in his latest outing with the Legends, allowing three runs (two earned) and five hits in seven innings but picking up his second loss. Duncan struck out six and walked one for a game score of 62, but Lexington scored just two runs for him. Duncan did hit a batter and gave up two home runs, but had a solid 8/6 G/F ratio and an excellent Defense Efficiency Ratio of .824. In fact, his FIP was high at 6.06, meaning it was the defense behind him that helped him more than anything. Still, a solid start as he tries to repair the damage done to him in Lancaster. At 23, he's young enough to be a mid-level prospect, and he skipped Lexington to start in High A ball this season, but obviously needed some more work.

First baseman/left fielder J.D. Martinez pounded out five hits on Tuesday, raising his average with Tri-City to .345/.375/.586. Martinez has hit three home runs and nine doubles in 17 games with the ValleyCats and is 51 for 135 between Greeneville and Tri-City this season with 14 doubles, one triple and eight home runs. Martinez also has a 21/9 K/BB ratio, which is fairly reasonable for a power hitter.

Right-hander Wander Alvino gave up one run and six hits in six innings on Tuesday, rebounding nicely from his first bad start back on July 22. In that one, the 22-year old gave up six runs and 10 hits in 4 1/3, registering a game score of 20 which was is his lowest total this season in seven starts. Alvino needs to miss some more bats, though, as his K/9 rate is at 5.23 in a pitcher-friendly league.

Center fielder Brian Kemp is 3 for 15 in his last four games with four runs scored, three walks and one stolen base. After beginning the season red-hot, Kemp has cooled off some but is still a solid leadoff hitter. The 20-year old is hitting .290/.394/.323 this month and .301/.415/.345 on the season with 16 walks, 19 strikeouts and 21 runs scored in 119 at-bats. Kemp has also been successful on five of eight stolen base attempts.

Second baseman Jose Altuve has one hit in his last four games, but has actually hurt his batting average over that stretch. In those four games, the 19-year old is 4 for 15 with two runs scored, three walks, three strikeouts and three stolen bases. Altuve is batting .330/.431/.536 this month and .328/.413/.493 on the season. Some have said his ability to walk stems from his height being listed as 5-foot-5 (when we know the official height it always a bit taller than reality). Still, Altuve is proving to have some pop to go with good baserunning instincts, as he's stolen 17 of 19 bases this season.

Shortstop Jiovanni Mier likes to pick up hits in bunches. In his last five games, he has multi-hit games in three of them and been o-fer in the rest. During that stretch, Mier is 8 for 19 with a home run, two doubles, four runs scored, four RBIs, five walks, two strikeouts and four steals. His averages in July have been blistering at .333/.443/.517 with nine extra base hits in 87 at-bats. His scouting report coming out of the draft focused more on his defense than his bat, but if he can continue to show good plate discipline with some pop, he will be a very valuable player.

Third baseman Jonathan Meyer continues to scuffle a bit, going 2 for his last 14 with a double, two RBIs, one walk, two runs scored and four strikeouts. Meyer hasn't gotten his bat going like right side running mate Mier, but he has at least kept taking the occasional walk. In 117 at-bats this season, Meyer has walked 19 times and struck out 32 times. He's just 18 years old, so hopefully he can continue to grow at the plate.

Center fielder Grant Hogue started late this season because of an injury, but he's shown surprising production for a player drafted in the 35th round. This month, Hogue is 23 for 71 with five doubles, a triple, seven walks, 13 strikeouts and has stolen 10 of 11 bases. He's only scored 12 runs in 21 games, but that's largely because the top two lineup positions are usually filled by Altuve and Mier. Still, Hogue gives the Astros another young, athletic outfielder to stock their system.

Right-hander Tanner Bushue has not been done enough justice in this space, which I'll rectify with a profile of him sometime soon. In the meantime, let's look at his last two starts. On the 17th, Bushue lasted five innings, giving up five hits and two earned runs while striking out four and walking two. The 18-year old went another five innings in his most recent start, giving up three hits and one earned run while striking out six and walking one. His K/9 rate over that span is 9.00 and is now 7.66 over all five of his starts. His BB/9 rate ticked up a bit to 2.01 but the most startling thing about his line thus far is he doesn't give up line drives. In three of his starts, he's given up zero line drives and has given up four total. Of course, the prevailing theory is that a pitcher can't really control how many line drives they give up, but it still means batters are not making solid contact, which means his raw stuff must be pretty good.

Right fielder Emilio King is one of the few GCL Astros hitting well this month, as he's gone 7 for 15 on his current five-game hitting streak. The 19-year old has three doubles, one triple, two RBIs, seven runs scored, two walks, one strikeout and two stolen bases over that stretch, raising his overall averages up to .293/.433/.476.

Shortstop Luis Bryan was named to the Farmstros Five this week and deserved it roundly. Over his last six games, Bryan is 10 for 26 with three doubles, one triple, eight runs scored, four RBIs and three strikeouts. Bryan has also played well in the field and has raised his season averages to .321/.330/.464. The 18-year old doesn't walk much...scratch that, AT ALL, as he doesn't have one walk in 84 at-bats this season. Still, a power-hitting middle infielder is welcome anytime in this system.

Second baseman Enrique Hernandez is also struggling to walk, and it's lowering his OBP significantly. The 19-year old has a respectable average at .281 but his OBP is at .309 this month since he's walked three times in 89 at-bats. Maybe I make too much of this, but for a player to be successfull at the higher levels (especially in the pros), he needs to walk. Just ask Jeff Francouer how well he's done by not walking. I think Hernandez is athletic enough to make an impact in the system, as his defense has been good and he's shown a little pop with five double and one triple this season. He just has to learn to take a pitch or two.

That's it for today, we'll be back tomorrow with more fun and exciting tidbits.

Wednesday's Rundown

2009-07-29T08:13:00.000-07:00

The InterWeb has been abuzz in the past 12 hours since the news of Bud Norris' callup hit. A couple months ago, I did a short profile on Norris here. In charting each of his starts, I really like what Norris brings in terms of potential to the rotation. In 19 starts for Round Rock, Norris struck out 112 batters in 120 innings, averaging 8.40 K/9 and 3.98 BB/9. He struck out ten batters once and allowed two or fewer runs in 11 starts. Norris has a positive G/F ratio at 129/109 and a HR/9 rate of 0.45.

His record at Round Rock is pretty terrible at 4-9, but his expected winning percentage sits at .687, meaning his record should be more like 13-6. His Pitching Runs Created is at 51.12, which means he has created the most runs for the Express of any player this season. His average game score is a 57 and he's induced 16 double plays.

I am concerned, however, about his control. In Zachary Levine's Q&A with Tal Smith yesterday, Smith suggested that Norris' lack of control was similar to Wandy Rodriguez, so I went back and looked at Wandy's track record to begin his career. Rodriguez is pitching in his fifth season in the majors and here are his BB/9 rates over that time span: 3.7, 4.2, 3.1, 2.9, 3.0. In the minors, Wandy had a career BB/9 rate of 3.1 and his progression went like this: 2.4, 2.5, 3.3, 3.6, 3.3, 4.5 (though that last season consisted of only five starts at Round Rock).

Obviously, as the levels got harder, Wandy got more inaccurate. Norris has a career minor league rate of 3.7 and a progression of 3.1, 3.7, 3.5 and now 3.98. So, to this point, Norris has had worse rates for most of his time in the minors and for his college career. In three season with Cal Poly, Norris had a BB/9 rate of 5.47, but that number is skewed by his sophomore season when he walked 30 batters in 34 innings. In his only season as a full-time starter in college, Norris walked 57 in 110 2/3 innings, giving him a BB/9 rate of 4.64.

While Norris does give up free passes more than you'd like, he differs with Wandy in another, very key area. Only once in his minor league career has Norris given up more hits than innings pitched and that came in 2008 when he hurt his arm. That's only been true for Wandy about half the time, as he had 3 of 6 minor league seasons with more hits than innings pitched and his first two pro seasons continued that trend. Of course, this shows the big difference between the two: Norris is a power pitcher, who misses bats while Wandy is not overpowering, but uses location to make up for lack of speed.

What does this mean for Houston? I haven't the foggiest. No one seems sure how they'll use Norris, as the 8th inning role has recently been vacated with LaTroy Hawkins shingles-related trip to the DL. Norris has proven, though, that he does deserve a shot at the big league rotation.

So, now that that's out of the way, let's get to the links of the day and then all the news and notes you can handle from the Astros minor league system:

Links for today:

More discussion of curveballs and our youth

Even more about curveballs

Not specifically about the topic, but a good read on pitching mechanics

Now the notes:

Polin Trinidad and T.J. Burton got absolutely 70's era Led Zepplin-rocked on Tuesday against Memphis. Trinidad lasted five innings, giving up 10 hits and nine earned runs while striking out three and walking one. The 23-year old also gave up six home runs. What's worse? Trinidad gave up two home runs each to three different players, including two to former Padres shortstop Khalil Greene. Burton got off no lighter, giving up eight hits and five earned runs in 1 2/3 innings while walking three and striking out no one. Not a pretty night on the mound for the Express, as even catcher Brian Esposito got into the fun, pitching a scoreless eighth while allowing two hits and one walk. That's after he caught the first seven innings of the game.

Esposito was called up to Round Rock after J.R. Towles went back on the disabled list. I'm not sure why this time, but the 25-year old has had just 18 at-bats this month and 129 total at-bats this season (in the minors). Towles just can't seem to stay healthy the past month or so, but hopefully he can turn it around soon and maybe make a September call-up.

Mark Saccomanno hit another home run on Tuesday, his 11th of the season. The 29-year old has now gone 5 for his last 8 and has three home runs this month. Saccomanno is hitting .313/.407/.522 with an OPS+ of 147 in July.

Reliever Chia-Jen Lo pitched a scoreless inning on Tuesday, giving up a hit and striking out one. Lo also didn't walk anyone, which is noteworthy since the 23-year old has walked four in seven innings this month and has generally struggled with his control since being promoted to Corpus Christi.

Starter Brad James, however, wasn't so lucky, lasting seven innings while giving up eight hits and five earned runs. James walked three but struck out three and suffered his eighth loss of the season....Drew Meyer extended his hitting streak to 11 games by going 2 for 4 with a double and a strikeout.

Collin DeLome hit his 17th home run of the season on Tuesday, going 1 for 4 with three strikeouts and two RBIs. The 22-year old has created 17.5 runs this month and has 61 runs created this season. DeLome has 38 extra base hits in 383 plate appearances, but has also struck out 92 times. His OBP of .340 is good but not great and he'll have to continue walking occasionally to offset his strikeouts.

This post is running long, so we'll break it up into two parts today. Part II coming up soon...

Tuesday Brieflys

2009-07-28T07:23:00.000-07:00

I had a comment on the Lancaster post yesterday that I was about to respond to in kind, but I figured I could just roll it into this post. The question was whether this offensive outburst for Koby Clemens is unusual, and the answer is yes and no. It is unusual in that his career minor league line is .270/.360/.436, but that also includes his skewed Lancaster numbers this season. His best minor league campaign was in 2005, the year he was drafted, when he hit .294/.391/.469 in 169 at-bats split between Rookie League Greeneville and short-season Tri-City. Clemens already has a career high in doubles this season with 32 and is four home runs short of his personal-best of 15, set back in 2007 in Lexington. Clemens did play at Salem last season, which was the most pitcher-friendly parks in the Astros system, so moving from Salem to Lancaster has been a huge boost to his numbers. Still, he's repeating High A ball after repeating Low A the previous two years, so he's not making the progress the Astros hoped when they took him in the fifth round back in '05.

Before we jump into the rundown, here are some interesting links I found today that apply (at least partially) to the minor league system:

Discussion of blogosphere journalism and trade rumors

Q&A with Tal Smith

Curveballs and young arms

With that, let's get to all the news and notes from the Astros minor league system:

First baseman Mark Saccomanno had a big game on Monday, going 3 for 4 with a triple, a home run, five RBIs and two runs scored. The 29-year old is hitting .302/.403/.476 this month with a double, two triples and two home runs. Saccomanno is also 5 for his last 14 and has four multi-hit games this month, including a four hit night in the first week of July.

Right-hander Felipe Paulino struggled again on Monday, giving up five hits, three earned runs and walking five in three innings of work. The 24-year old hasn't made it out of the fifth inning since returning to Round Rock last week. Interestingly enough, his pitch count has been high in all three appearances. He's thrown at least 70 pitches in all three, but has thrown just 54% of his pitches for strikes, which is right in line with how many strikes he threw in his brief stint with Round Rock in April.
In 14 starts with the Astros, Paulino threw strikes 62% of the time, but that percentage plummeted once he went into the bullpen in May. It rose again once he rejoined the starting rotation through the first of July. His walks, however, have also hurt him. In April, Paulino averaged 2.73 walks per 9 innings between both Round Rock and Houston. In May, that number jumped to 5.89 before falling back to 1.89 for the rest of his tenure with the Astros. Since rejoining Round Rock, Paulino has allowed 9.25 walks per 9 innings.
We can even look further into his strike data in the majors. Paulino got 16.4% swinging strikes in his time with the Astros, but had just eight in his final two appearances. I don't have the same type of data for his three Round Rock starts, but I can say that two of his seven strikeouts have been looking. He's obviously still missing bats, so it's hard to say whether his problem is mechanical, mental or due to an injury. His control seems to come and go this season, starting when he was demoted to the bullpen in May. Hopefully, he can get right soon.
Catcher Jason Castro hit another double on Monday, giving him a 7-game hitting streak and raising his averages to .299/.373/.433. The 22-year old now has four doubles this month with one triple and one home run. Castro also has a 7/8 BB/K ratio and has scored 12 runs in July. As I've said before, Castro profiles more as a doubles hitter in the pros, so this is a good sign. I'd like to see a little more power, but his defense is solid, he's hitting for average and he's getting base at a good clip, so I won't be picky.
Corpus Christi has become the home of several long hitting streaks. Drew Locke had his 10-game streak broken on Monday, Jhon Florentino has a five-game streak while Mark Ori has a four-game streak. Monday also saw Drew Meyer extend his streak to 10 games in dramatic fashion, hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning on Monday. Meyer is batting .365 over the streak, pulling his average this month up to .284/.364/.375.
Outfielder Collin DeLome hit a triple while going 1 for 4 on Monday. DeLome now has seven doubles, two triple and two home runs this month with 11 runs scored and 11 RBIs. DeLome is leading the team in Runs Created with 16 and weighted OBA at .330. He also struck out for the 17th and 18th times on Monday, but has walked nine times now. If he keeps that rate up, walking once every 10 at-bats, DeLome can be a successful major leaguer.
Right-hander Tip Fairchild made his return to the Astros system on Monday, starting for Lancaster. The 25-year old gave up nine hits and five earned runs in 6 1/3 innings, striking out five while walking none but also giving up three home runs. Fairchild used to be one of the better pitchers in the Astros system, but had Tommy John surgery in May of 2007 and was released just before the season started in 2009. The general timetable for recovery from Tommy John is 18 months, so hopefully, he can get back to being a productive member of the farm system.
The Big Three in Lancaster of Koby Clemens, J.B. Shuck, and Jon Gaston all had good days at the plate on Monday. Clemens was 2 for 4 with a two-run home run in the seventh inning. Shuck went 3 for 5 with a double and a run scored. Gaston hit his 28th home run, a solo shot in the seventh and went 1 for 4 with two runs scored. Lancaster still lost 7-6, despite out-hitting High Desert 12-11. Did the Astros know what they were getting into when they signed this deal with Lancaster? It seems a pretty steep price to pay just to have a presence on the West Coast.
Right-hander Ross Seaton got hit hard on Monday, giving up five earned runs in five innings while allowing six hits and two home runs. Seaton did strike out six and walk three, giving him a 16 strikeouts in his last 16 2/3 innings. Still, it was his lowest game score in 10 starts at 38 and his highest FIP of the season at 8.40.
Shortstop Brandon Wikoff made his debut with Lexington, going 1 for 4 at the plate with a run scored and making one error in the field. Wikoff batted .27/.357/.347 in 28 games with Tri-City before his promotion. The fifth-round pick is the first 2009 Astros draft pick to make it onto a full-season team.

Weekend Leftovers from Lexington

2009-07-27T14:33:00.000-07:00

Let's take a trip to Lexington for all the news and notes from this weekend:

Kyle Greenwalt had a decent start on Friday, lasting 6 2/3 innings while allowing six hits and four runs (three earned). Greenwalt struck out five while walking two and giving up his first home run in six starts and only his seventh of the season. The 20-year old hasn't gotten much run support this season and especially in his last six starts. Over that period, the Legends have scored 16 runs, giving him an average of 2.67 runs a game, while Greenwalt is getting an average of 3.72 runs a game this season. The league average is currently 4.27.

Shortstop Chris Jackson struggled in Lancaster this season but has done better in Lancaster. Over the weekend, he went 4 for 12 with a triple and an RBI. Jackson is batting .220/.281/.300 in 14 games with Lexington and hit .183/.239/.244 in 58 games with Lancaster. The 22-year old was drafted out of Virginia Commonwealth in the 29th round in 2008.

Jay Austin was 0-for the weekend, going 0-for-11 in three games. His July average dropped to .311/.340/.478 and his season marks dropped to .266/.314/.364. Austin hasn't gotten a hit since July 20 and is 1 for 28 since July 18. He's also struck out eight times over that time frame and stolen just one base.

Jordan Lyles had his second straight poor outing, which may or may not have anything to do with his reduced work load. Lyles lasted five innings on Saturday, giving up eight hits and six earned runs while striking out four and walking three. The 18-year old had a Defense Efficiency Ratio of .529 but don't blame everything on the defense, as his FIP was 5.20. Basically, it was a bad start all around and was his second straight start with a game score in the 20's.

Brad Dydalewicz had a below-average start on Sunday, combining a drop in his strikeout rate with a couple of home run balls. In five innings, Dydalewicz gave up five hits and two solo home runs while striking out three and walking four. The 19-year old lefty had a FIP of 9.60, his highest total since his fourth start and more than twice his season average of 4.34

Weekend Leftovers from Lancaster

2009-07-27T12:49:00.000-07:00

I just picked up a hit writing this review of Lancaster's weekend. That's how hitter-friendly it is up there. Anyway, here are all the news and notes from the Jethawks' weekend:

Righthander Leandro Cespedes got a no decision on Sunday, pitching seven innings and allowing eight hits and four runs. The 22-year old struck out eight and walked three while giving up one home run. Cespedes is on a nice little streak recently, recording game scores of at least 50 in his last five starts. His K/9 rate is up to 7.86 while his BB/9 rate is at 3.43, but his PRC is at 32.78 right now. Cespedes has been getting better and better though, and doing it in a tough hitters' park and league.

Catcher Koby Clemens went 6 for 11 over the weekend, with two doubles, a home run and six RBIs. Clemens has his highest monthly average of the season in July with a line of .389/.449/.758. The 22-year old has also driven in 34 runs this month but has struck out 28 times.

Third baseman Ebert Rosario was just 2 for 13 over the weekend with two RBIs. The 22-year old is hitting .143/.143/.190 since his call-up to Lancaster in five games.

Centerfielder J.B. Shuck went 5 for 14 over the weekend with a double, an RBI and a strikeout. Shuck is great at getting on base, with a OBP of .402 for the season and 50 walks, but has been harder to strike out than anyone on the Lancaster roster. Shuck has struck out 11 times this month and only 38 times all season. Combine that with his 17 stolen bases in 95 games and he continues to be one of the best leadoff prospects the Astros have in their system.

Weekend Leftovers from Corpus Christi

2009-07-27T12:27:00.000-07:00

Here's the weekend news from Corpus Christi:

Shortstop Wladimir Sutil has had a good month on the basepaths, picking up five of his 14 total steals in July. The 24-year old has also scored 19 runs in 97 plate appearances with a line of .287/.375/.345. Surprisingly, Sutil has also grounded into three double plays though he's also struck out only five times.

First baseman Mark Ori had a good weekend, going 8 for 13 in three games. Ori is batting .310/.355/.414 in 63 plate appearances with six doubles and 15 strikeouts. Ori is older at 25 and hasn't shown much power, so I'm not sure how much value he has in the larger scheme. Still, he can hit at the higher levels of the minors, so Ori has proven useful.

Outfielder Collin DeLome also had a huge weekend, going 7 for 9 on Saturday and Sunday with two doubles. The 22-year old now has a monthly line of .321/.303/.513 with seven doubles, one triple and two home runs. DeLome is also third on the team in hits with 25 in July.

Righthander Sergio Perez bounced back from his disastrous one inning outing on Monday. Perez threw seven innings, giving up four hits and three runs (two earned) while striking out three and walking two. Perez also gave up a home run for the fourth straight game wbut posted his highest game score in that stretch with a 60. Perez got his highest Defense Efficiency Ratio at .850, which helped him give up only four hits.

Weekend Leftovers from Round Rock

2009-07-27T07:58:00.000-07:00

We're going to try this (albeit longer) attempt to bring you all the news and notes from around the Astros farm system, but in friendly, team-centered capsules. First up, all the Round Rock news and notes you can handle:

Tommy Manzella went 2 for 11 over the weekend, lowering his monthly averages to .286/.353/.532. Manzella's defense has been solid if not spectacular this season, as he has only 11 errors in 97 games, but has a range factor of just 4.15.

Yorman Bazardo put up a game score of 70 on Saturday, throwing eight innings of five-hit ball, allowing one earned run and striking out three while walking one. Bazardo did hit one batter but also induced three double plays. The 24-year old also induced double-digit ground balls for the fourth consecutive game.

Yordany Ramirez had his eighth multi-hit game on Sunday, going 3 for 4. His monthly batting average is .324 but his OBP is just a tick higher at .333 since he's only walked once and not been hit by any batters. Ramirez has stolen two bases in five attempts and put down three sacrifice hits while striking out nine in 77 plate appearances.

Not a lot else going on, except Bud Norris had a fine but uninspiring start on Friday, lasting six innings while allowing two earned runs and striking out four. Teammate Chris Johnson hit a home run over the weekend, his third of the month and sixth of the season. Reggie Abercrombie also struck out for the 30th time in July over the weekend.

Friday's Trip to Lexington

2009-07-24T13:55:00.000-07:00

Stopping by Lexington now:

The two starts I haven't mentioned yet this week were from David Duncan and Robert Bono. Duncan was excellent, picking up the victory by lasting seven innings and allowing one earned run. Still, Duncan is an older guy who failed spectacularly in High A ball, so we'll reserve calling him a prospect just yet. As for Bono, he's been good this season, but has struggled lately to be consistent. In his past six starts, Bono has only two who were above average and he's struck out less than four batters in each of his past six starts. Bono's K/9 rate is still at 5.06 and his BB/9 rate is ridiculously low at 1.18, but over those six starts, Bono's rates are 3.20 on K/9 and 1.33 on BB/9. Not great.

One guy that needs to be discussed is Henry Villar, who has appeared in six games this month. The 22-year old has struck out 16 while walking one over 9 1/3 innings. He's also given up nine hits, six earned runs and two home runs. His G/F rate is an even 6/6 while his FIP of 2.88 is half the size of his ERA of 5.79. Villar has 79 strikeouts and 13 walks this season in 60 2/3 innings over 28 appearances and three starts. I'm not sure what to make of Villar and at 5-foot-11, 150 lbs., he's very slight to be such a power pitcher. I'll be very interested to see how he responds to a callup to Lancaster.

Utility infielder Jeff Hulett was called up from short-season Tri City following Ebert Rosario's promotion. The 21-year old has gone 1 for 5 with a walk, an RBI, a double and one strikeout in two games. Hulett started at third base, designated hitter, first base and second base this season, but with second baseman Albert Cartwright batting .161/.268/.323 in 70 plate appearances and none of the other infielders standing out, Hulett may get some solid playing time.

One of the few Lexington hitters doing well this month is Eric Suttle, who's 6 for 15 in his last four games, raising his July line to .263/.333/.298. Suttle has walked six times, scored seven runs and driven in three in 63 plate appearances this month.

Well, the ride had to end some time for Jay Austin, who is 0 for 7 and now 1 for his last 21, lowering his July averages to .337/.368/.518 and his season average to .272/.320/.372. He is still the only Legends player batting over .300 and has 28 hits this month.

The Astros have a pretty stacked system for catchers, with J.R. Towles, Jason Castro and Koby Clemens behind the plate at the top three levels in the minors. Lexington, though, doesn't really have a strong candidate behind the plate. Catcher Federico Hernandez is purported to be a good defensive backstop, but his offense is atrocious, especially for Low A ball. In 50 plate appearances, Hernandez is batting .184/.200/.286 with a triple and a home run among his nine hits this month. His season averages of .223/.256/.323 aren't much better, so it'll be interesting how they handle the position over the next year or so.

Two more relievers making waves are Kyle Godfrey and Pat Urkfitz. Godfrey has appeared in six games this month, pitching 9 2/3 innings and allowing seven hits and two earned runs while striking out 13 and walking none. His G/F ratio is also excellent at 13/3, continuing his upward trend since he left extended spring training. Godfrey is older at 23, but could progress quickly. Urkfitz picked up his fourth victory on Wednesday, appearing in seven games this month. The 20-year old has pitched 8 2/3 innings, allowing six hits and one earned run while striking out eight and walking one. Urkfitz also has two saves and an 8/9 G/F ratio.

Friday's Trip to Lancaster

2009-07-24T13:04:00.001-07:00

I wrote a bunch about Lancaster players a couple days ago, but here is what I left out:

The Lancaster pitching staff has been fairly awful lately, but if you look past all the hits and runs allowed, there are a couple of guys doing some good. First, former starter Jose Duran has been as close to untouchable as you can be in Clear Channel Communication Field. In five appearances this month, Duran has given up four runs in 12 1/3 innings, and two of those came in two-thirds of an inning in his most recent appearance. Duran has also struck out 10 and walked six in his five appearances, giving him a K/9 rate of 7.30. His FIP of 3.04 is actually very close to his ERA this month of 2.92. All in all, Duran has been very effective, though he'll probably stay in the bullpen.

The other pitcher doing well is Chris Hicks. He's going to keep getting mentioned here until someone notices, because Hicks has been very good. In his latest start on Thursday, Hicks lasted seven innings while giving up seven hits and three earned runs while striking out seven and walking one. Hicks had a G/F ratio of 8 to 6, continuing a trend of allowing more ground balls than fly balls this season. The seven strikeouts was also his second highest total of the season, bringing his K/9 rate up to 6.84 this season. Hicks has a PRC of 43.77 now, putting him third on the team behind Jon Gaston and Jason Castro.

Speaking of Gaston, since his epic home run exploits over the weekend, the 22-year old went 1 for 6 with two walks, including an intentional walk, and hit his fifth triple of July. Gaston is now batting .293/.398/.756 in 88 plate appearances but has struck out a team-high 32 times. He's currently on pace to shatter the Lancaster record for home runs in a season of 31. Currently, Gaston has 27 home runs.

Lexington third baseman Ebert Rosario was called up to Lancaster and has gone 1 for 8 in two games, scoring one run and driving in two more. Rosario has hit a triple and struck out once, giving him a line of .125/.125/.250. He takes the job of David Flores, who was 7 for 37 in July.

Let's run through the monthly team leaders quickly: hits - Koby Clemens 29; doubles - Clemens 11; triples - Gaston 5; walks - Gaston 14; runs - Gaston 23; home runs - Gaston 9; RBIs - Clemens 26; strikeouts - Gaston 32; stolen bases - T.J. Steele and Craig Corrado 3; singles - Jack Shuck 20; strikeouts - Fernando Abad 20; walks allowed - Leandro Cespedes and Bryan Hallberg 11; wins - Cespedes 3; innings pitched - Cespedes 25 2/3.

Friday's Trip to Corpus Christi

2009-07-24T12:00:00.000-07:00

Corpus had it's game on Thursday postponed, but here's the best and worst from the past week with the Hooks:

Jhon Florentino had a nine-game hitting streak broken three days ago, but is still tied for the team lead in hits with 23. The 25-year old's line of .319/.347/.486 is the best on the team in terms of average and slugging percentage. Florentino is one of four players with at least 10 runs created in Corpus. At 25, his potential is a bit limited, but if Chris Johnson ever gets called up to the big league team, he's a shoo-in for getting a shot at the job in Round Rock.

Wladimir Sutil is 6 for 16 in his last three games, raising his July averages up to .288/.366/.342 in 83 plate appearances. Sutil leads the Hooks with 14 runs scored and in stolen bases with four in five attempts. Sutil doesn't have much power, hitting just four doubles this month and 15 doubles this season with only other extra-base hit (a home run). Not a lot of power, but good defense, good speed and he can hit at the top of the order.

Corpus Christi's youngest everyday player, Collin DeLome, is in a bit of a slump after starting out hot for the first two weeks of July. The 22-year old is 1 for his last 12 and has struck out 16 times in 80 plate appeareances this month. DeLome has walked nine times in July, which is 36% of his season total. His 16 home runs are the most in the top two levels of the Astros system, but his 87 strikeouts this season are also second-highest in those same levels.

The pitching is extremely thin at Corpus right now, with 29-year old Andy Van Hekken, 26-year old Wilton Lopez and 30-year old Kenny Baugh all in the starting rotation. Throw in two 23-year olds who are struggling in Brad James and Sergio Perez and there are basically just relievers to look at in positive terms. James has a 9.31 ERA in 19 1/3 innings in July with a K/BB ratio of 7 to 13. James has got a G/F ratio of 34/17, but his FIP is still 6.67. As for Perez, his latest start only lasted 1 inning and in four starts this month, he's got an ERA of 6.62. Perez has struck out more batters than James with 10, but has also walked 13. Each players has given up three home runs and both have WHIPs over 2.00. Corpus does profile as a hitter-friendly park for home runs, but there aren't as many runs scored there, so it could be a bit of a wash.

The two-relievers of note are both 23 in Danny Meszaros and Chia-Jen Lo. Meszaros has been very effective this month with an ERA of 2.92, lowering his season ERA to 4.89. Meszaros has struck out 12 and walked five in 12 1/3 innings with one hold. Lo, hasn't been as good, though he lost some time to the Futures game. In six innings over six appearances, Lo has allowed six hits and four earned runs while striking out nine and walking four. His FIP of 4.87 is higher than Meszaros' 3.77, but not by much. Both still look to have a bright future and should be in Round Rock by next season.

Friday's Trip to Round Rock

2009-07-24T09:50:00.000-07:00

We're going to try something different this Friday. Since I've got so much catching up to do, we're breaking down Friday's Trip into the different minor league teams. Let's start with Round Rock's best and worst performances from the past week:

Outfielder Brian Bogusevic has a 12-game hitting streak right now, going 17 for 54 over the course of those games. Bogusevic has seven runs scored and 10 RBIs this month with a line of .303/.361/.382 in 82 plate appearances. Bogusevic also has a double and two home runs during his current streak, which has brought his average up to .279 this month.

Right-hander Polin Trinidad started twice since last Friday and lasted seven innings in each, but they couldn't have been more different. In the first, Trinidad allowed four hits and two earned runs while striking out five and walking two. In the second, he gave up nine hits and five earned runs while striking out five and walking three. His Round Rock records is now at 2-1 after winning the first start and losing the second, but Trinidad only got one run of support last night as the Express were baffled by Charlie Haeger and his magical flutterball. Trinidad's game scores since joining the Express have been 51, 76, 64 and 41 while getting 2, 3, 5 and 1 run in support over that stretch. He's also struck out 17 in 28 2/3 innings, which is right in line with his season K/9 rate.

Shortstop Tommy Manzella was named to the Farmstros Five for this past week, and it was well-deserved. The 26-year old is 21 for 69 with eight walks, nine runs scored, 12 RBIs, five doubles, one triple and four home runs. His line of .304/.377/.580 features his highest OPS of any month so far this season. Manzella leads the Express with 14.7 runs created this month and has a weighted OBA of .322, which is second on the team to Yordany Ramirez.

Bud Norris only made one start and it wasa Phantom of the Opera start. Good, bad, you can't tell which at any given moment. Norris threw eight innings, good. He allowed 10 hits and four earned runs, bad. Norris induced the highest number of ground ball out of his season with 14 and had nine fly ball outs, good. He struck out just one in eight innings, bad. His FIP of 3.33 was the highest in four starts and second-highest in eight, which is good and bad. Norris is sitting at 114 innings pitched this season with 108 strikeouts and 50 walks. His Pitcher Runs Created is at 48.47 and when you compare that to the hitters on the team, puts him in third place behind Bogusevic (50.2) and Manzella (49.5).

Yorman Bazardo started twice, lasting six innings in the first and seven innings in the second. His game scores of 48 and 63 were both fairly good. In the first start, Bazardo struck out one and walked one, which lowered his game score for an otherwise Quality Start. In the second, Bazarod upped the strikeouts to four, but also walked four, so it was a wash... Felipe Paulino has started twice since being demoted from the Astros. Paulino wasn't in the starting rotation regularly at the end of his tenure with the big league team, so his first two starts have been short. Paulino has lasted 4 and 4 2/3 innings in the two starts while allowing two earned runs, seven hits, while striking out five and walking seven. ... T.J. Burton has appeared in two games since being called up from Corpus Christi. In those two games, Burton has pitched 1 2/3 innings while allowing one hit and striking out one while walking none. The 25-year old has a 1/2 G/F ratio and has thrown only 20 total pitches.

J.R. Towles broke his nose after falling off a tractor over the All-Star Game, meaning the Express called up Brian Esposito for a couple games. Towles returned on Wednesday and has gone 3 for 7 in the past two games, bringing his monthly line up to .286/.375/.429. ... Chris Johnson hit another home run this past week. Johnson is 15 for 57 with nine walks, six runs scored, four RBIs, two doubles and two home runs this month.... Yordany Ramirez has a line of .333/.344/.476 in 65 plate appearances. He surprisingly walked for the first time this month in Thursday's game, giving him six walks this season.

Wednesday's Rundown

2009-07-22T12:23:00.000-07:00

Let's start off our week together with some links I've found from the past five days. This article discusses the use of DNA testing with players from the Dominican Republic. There really are some scary implications by this DNA testing, and it's even more worrisome that some teams have been doing this for years now. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, it's definitely an understandable circumstance for these poor families to fake a birth certificate to, basically, win the lottery.

That's not to say it's justified, it's just understandable. Still, what's to stop a team from testing for susceptibility for injuries along with identities? Is it fair to penalize a player by not signing him because he's prone to knee injuries when a similar State-born player with the same exact propensity would be taken in the first round? There are some definite ethical questions here and if history has taught us anything, it's that large corporations and baseball owners aren't the most ethical. Remember all those collusion cases back in the 1980's?

The second thought-provoking article was this one on how to promote a prospect. The article itself raises more questions than answers, but occasionally it is good to ask them. Are the Astros hurting Jordan Lyles and Jason Castro by leaving them in the minors for another year or two? Are they good enough right now to compete in the majors better than some of the players they have now? The new regime is certainly more aggressive with the younger guys than Purpurra and Hunsicker were. The really telling sign will be where they start out the young guys next season. Will the high school guys have to apprentice in High A ball or will they be challenged with a jump to Double-A? These are questions worth asking, so start discussing amongst yourself. Meanwhile, here's a short look at the news and notes from the Astros minor league system:

Without question, the Gold Star Performer of the Last Five Days is Jon Gaston. He's been mentioned in the Farmstros Weekly Five, by Zachary Levine on chron.com, by Baseball America and I'm sure by his family and friends. Gaston has been great, both this month and this season, and while some of the commenters have tried to put his power in the context of his park and his league. Gaston's OPS+ this month is at 205 but since his adjusted OPS is 1.095, his adjusted OPS+ is 184.

For the season, those numbers are 179 and 1.007 with his adjusted OPS+ at 163. Both of those numbers are excellent, and Gaston is undoubtedly having an enormous season, leading all the minors in home runs with 27 at the tender age of 22. The adjustment to his OPS directly hurts only his slugging percentage. His OBP drops a point from .397 to .396 for the season but his SLG drops from .676 to .611. As I mentioned on Friday, the park factor for Lancaster's games is pretty ridiculous, sitting at 1.04 on doubles and 1.17 on home runs. Gaston will have to prove himself at a higher level before being considered one of the organization's top 10 prospects.

Equally impressive this month have been Matt Weston and Koby Clemens. Both Clemens and Weston are still batting over .330 while Clemens has an OPS of 1.130 and an adjusted OPS of 1.068. It's a dead heat to see which of the three is having the better month, as Clemens has the edge in weighted OBA at .434, compared to Gaston at .391 and Weston at .383. Gaston leads the team in Runs Created with 25.6 to Clemens' 23.3 and Weston's 20.8. (Sidenote: Gaston leads the Astros system in Runs Created with 103 this season, by far the most I've seen at this point in the process). Clemens also lead the pack in BABiP at a comically high .512, followed by Weston's .489 and Gaston's .350. So, expect Clemens and Weston's batting averages to fall back to earth, while Gaston should maintain his pace right around .300.

Ross Seaton's (7-8) start on Friday was below average overall but got him a victory as the Legends scored eight runs in support of the righthander. It was the most runs the team had scored in a game Seaton started since his fifth start back in April. Seaton struck out four and walked two in 5 2/3 innings, giving up eight hits and three runs (one earned).

Of course Jordan Lyles got blown up in his start on Sunday (after I'd written the profile update on him but before it went live on the site). In four innings, Lyes gave up six hits and five runs, striking out three and walking a season-high six batters. Lyles had a game score of 27, his lowest of the season and had his highest FIP since his fourth start of the season. Not good times.

Brad Dydalewicz, on the other hand, posted his best start in two months on Monday. The lefty lasted 7 1/3 innings, striking out seven and walking three. Dydalewicz gave up four hits and two earned runs while hitting one batter. His game score of 66 was the best he's had since his fourth start back in April. That April start was the last one before he pulled his oblique and missed about a month of time. Dydalewicz continues to give up hardly any line drives and has surrendered just one in each of his past four starts. His G/F ratio has also trended pretty strongly to the ground ball side for his last eight starts.

Jay Austin's wild ride finally came to a halt over the weekend, when he went 1 for 14. His batting average dropped to .368/.400/.566 this month, though his adjusted OPS is a bit higher than that at 1.000. His BABiP is still at .443, so he may drop some more. Austin did steal another base over the weekend, though, giving him seven this month and 19 this season.

I wish I had time for more today, but that should whet your appetites. See you tomorrow.

Jordan Lyles Pitching Profile Update

2009-07-21T08:00:00.000-07:00

I'm setting out ot do a proper profile on Jordan Lyles, who now has 17 starts under his belt and, until Thursday, was leading the minors in strikeouts. Looking at all of his innings, batter-by batter, I came up with four main points that have defined his season. Before we close out, I'll also discuss how Astros GM Ed Wade historically has handled high-school pitchers.

First off, here's a refresher on Lyles' bio.

Jordan Lyles is an 18-year old right-handed pitcher from South Carolina. A three-sport athlete from Hartsville High Schol, Lyles was selected with the 38th overall pick in the supplemental portion of the first round in the 2008 draft.

At 6-foot-4 and 185 lbs., Lyles has a good frame for a pitcher. His delivery is an 'easy' three-quarters motion and is not a violent affair.

Here is his stat line through his latest start: 5-7, 2.92 ERA in 95 2/3 innings, 118 strikeouts, 21 walks, .238 BAA. All very impressive, but we can delve deeper.

The first point I'd make is about his strikeouts. Lyles has a K/9 inning rate of 11.10 and has struck out 10 or more four times. Two of those games came against the Greenville Drive, who took the first-half Southern Division title. In my first profile, I commented on how Lyles struck out most of the hitters on swings and misses. I went back through all his starts and split out hte called strikeouts and the swinging strikeouts. Out of the 118 K's, 25 were called and 93 were swinging. That suggests Lyles has not only outstanding raw stuff, but also good command. I also said in the first look that Lyles appeared to be more of a thrower than pitcher, but he has disproven that theory. His season BB/9 rate is at 1.98 and he went 10 straight games earlier this season wihtout hitting a batter. Clearly, his command is pretty solid.

Secondly, there are some very interesting data points in his splits. Against left-handed batters, Lyles is allowign a batting average of .193 in 137 at-bats with 50 strikeouts. Against right-handers, that number jumps to .263 in 226 at-bats. That's usually what a left-handed pitcher looks like stat-wise, but Lyles is right-handed. It's also not necessarily a product of small sample size since he has over 350 at-bats. This mayb e due to many things, but it seems like Lyles has developed a hard breaking pitch he can bust in on a lefty. Baseball America does not metnion whether he has a slider, but I wonder if he added it this season. I know for sure that his changeup is progressing nicely, because you can see it in his ground ball/fly ball ratio. Many of the hits and ground ball out Lyles gives up are pulled by the batter. Rarely, though, do hitters make good contact, usually rolling over and hitting easily playable grounders. Of course, his lefty/righty mystery could simply be a changeup/fastball combo working well, but I think there is more to it. For one thing, Lyles has struck out 36.5 percent of the batters he's faced on the left side and 30.1% on the right. Not a big difference, but even a small one can be significant.

Third, if you can believe this, Lyles has been a bit unlucky this season. His BABiP of .343 suggests he should be allowing fewer hits. Combine that with a Defense Efficiency Ratio of .657 and you get a pitcher who has not been helped by his defense. Basically, Lyles still has a sub-3.00 ERA because of his strikeouts. With a little better defense, Lyles could easily have closer to the 10 victories he's expected to have from his Pitching Runs Created of 37.5. On the other side of the luck coin, Lyles is pitching in an offense-deficient league. The South Atlantic League is averaging a little over four runs a game per team, which is the lowest of the four highest minor league levels. So, it could be worse.

The last point I'd make about Lyles is about his performance with runners on base. In 40 2/3 inings, Lyles has an ERA of 6.42, a batting average allowed of .272, a G/F ratio of .90 with 33 strikeouts and 10 walks. That's about half his inning total, but just a quarter of his strikeouts. Lyles apparently has problems pitching out of the stretch. For some pitchers, it's the other way around, like Corpus Christi's Brad James, who Zachary Levine says has been pitching exclusively out of the stretch to feel more comfortable. I'm not sure Lyles needs to avoiding the stretch just yet, but it is a quirky little problem in an otherwise sterling record.

Now that we've talked about his performance, let's discuss how he will be used the rest of the way. I talked about this earlier this week and over at the Crawfish Boxes and got some interesting feedback. Lexington recently added starter David Duncan to the team and Astros assistant GM Ricky Bennett said the team will be moving to a "modified six-man rotation." I covered this on Thursday, but Lyles is on pace to throw 152 innings. Before, I was thinking about the question from general data and philosophies on young pitchers from the sabermetric community and general managers like the Yankees' Brian Cashman. Instead, we need to look at Wade's track record.

Wade was the general manager of the Philadelphia Phillies for seven seasons. I found nine good examples of pitchers drafted out of high school and examined their usage patterns. Out of the nine, the highest innings total was 175 1/3 innings by Brett Myers in 2000, the lowest total was 54 by Zach Segovia in 2003 and the average was 125 innings pitched. I took the totals from their Age 19 seasons, and only looked at players in Low A ball the season after being drafted. The fact I found nine players fitting this bill shows it can be considered a trend by Wade. Here's a rundown of the pitchers I found.

Brett Myers - threw 175 innings and started 27 games in 2000. Made similar transition from Rookie ball to Low A.
Cole Hamels - threw 101 innings in 2003, lost time with a pulled shoulder muscle and was coming off a broken arm from HS.
Zach Segovia - threw 59 innings in 2003
Ryan Madsen - started 21 games and threw 135 2/3 innings in Low A in 2000. Threw 141 2/3 total innings in two previous seasons.
Gavin Floyd - threw 166 innings and starter 26 games in 2002. Signed late made pro debut in Low A ball.
Scott Mathieson - threw 64 2/3 innings in 13 games in 2003.
Keith Bucktrot - 135 innings in 24 starts in 2001.
Robinson Tejeda - 151 innings in 2001.
Kyle Kendrick - 138 innings in 2004.

While I disagree with a young kid throwing 150-170 innings so early in his development, Wade apparently doesn't take my advice, so we'll just have to project out what will happen. Already, one of the young guys, Brad Dydalewicz has hit some injury bugs. Hopefully, Lyles will also stay healthy. I don't think he will be called up to Lancaster this season, but I do bet he adds another 40 innings before the season is done.

Telvin Nash Hitting Profile

2009-07-20T08:54:00.000-07:00

Telvin Raynard Nash is an 18-year old left fielder from Griffin High School in Griffin, Georgia who played high school baseball with 2008 first round pick Tim Beckham. He's 6-foot-1, 230 pounds and is every bit that imposing a player in his video on MLB.com. Nash committed to Kennesaw State but signed for .

Nash has a swing that definitely can play to some significant power, and was rated as being the top prep power hitter in his state. His pre-swing stance is very busy, with some extra knee movement that could be eliminated. It works for him now, so I'm not one to advocate changing, but complicated swings can get out of whack easily.

His pro debut hasn't gone as smoothly as he'd hoped. In 50 at-bats, he's hitting .160/.218/.240 with two doubles, a triple and 15 strikeouts. Nash has a BABiP of .222, meaning his average should be higher. One of the main reasons why he's struggling at the plate is he's not hitting line drives. Of his 36 batted balls, only two have been liners and both fell in for singles. His average on ground balls is .125 and on flyballs is .222. For reference, the major league flyball average is ???? and the groundball average is ???. So, he's been a bit unlucky to this point. Still, 50 at-bats is an awful small sample size to be making big comparisons.

Nash hits to all fields, with a 14-11-11 split between right-center-left fields. He's hit for the highest average when hitting it up the middle, picking up four hits, one on a liner, one on a grounder and two on fly balls. In fact, both his extra-base hits came on fly balls to center field. The area he's struggled mostly in is hitting it the opposite way. Nash, a right-handed batter, has a .091 average on balls hit on the right side of the infield. I expect he's still getting used to the fastballs of guys in the Gulf Coast League and this all should even out as he gets comfortable.

In the field, Nash has started five games in left field. In my scouting report during the draft, this is what I had to say about his fielding:

His arm looks like it will play alright, though it's telling that the Astros listed him as a left fielder. He moved pretty well around the bases, so he should be able to stay on the corners and his arm looked like it could be an asset in left.

So far, so good. Nash has definitely started the majority of his games at designated hitter, but in his 45 innings in the field, he's made seven putouts in 30 chances with three errors. Two of the errors came on throws while the third was a fielding error. Nash doesn't have a very good percentage of turning chances into outs, but many of those chances came on line drives that no one could have gotten to, so that number isn't worrisome. His range factor of 1.40 is actually very decent for a left fielder and his arm looks like it will end up being very good as well. He's struggled to hold runners going from second on a single; the runner from second scored all four times that happened in game situations. In all the other situations, though, Nash has done well. All three times he's kept the runner from advancing to third when there's a single and a runner on first. He held the runner at third once out of two times when there was a double and a runner on first. Finally, he held the runner the only time there was a possible sacrifice fly hit to him with a runner on third.

The rest of the analysis I can do from the numbers feels incomplete because we don't have enough data on him yet. Sure, he hits significantly better in the fifth or sixth slot in the order, but he's only had 8 or 9 at-bats in that spot, compared to 26 in the cleanup spot. Sure, when he comes up third in an inning, the team is scoring a high rate of runs, but he's only come up eight times like that and the team has only scored eight runs. It's high compared to the rest of his situations, but still a bit premature for solid conclusions.

The take home message then becomes this: Nash is struggling right now because he's not making good contact. His profile shows he's got good discipline as a hitter, can hit it to all fields (just not successfully yet) and probably needs to cut back on the strikeouts. We'll definitely check back with Nash next month to see how he's progressing.

The Economics of the Astros

2009-07-17T12:30:00.000-07:00

I found this blog post earlier today (h/t to Rob Neyer). So, being the intrepid sports reporter that I am, I plugged in some of our Astros players and prospects to see what their relative values were. Here are the results:

Carlos Lee (4 years, 74 million left on contract). Using the spreadsheet and the historical WAR numbers from FanGraphs, I projected Lee out with WARs of 3.0, 3.0, 2.5, 2.5 for the rest of his contract. That puts his value each season at 13.7, 13.9, 11.7, and 11.7 million for the next four seasons. His net worth over the next four years is -19.1 million, meaning it will be spectacularly hard to move Lee in any deal, either by the July 31 deadline or this offseason. That contract was bad from the minute he signed it, but at least Lee's been an offensive force the past couple of seasons. Still, however good he's been, he still can't bring his value up to those contract numbers.

Lance Berkman (3 years, 44 millions left). The final year on Berkman's contract is a club option with a 2 million dollar buyout. Looking at Berkman's WAR value this season and from the past few, I projected him at WARs of 5.0, 4.5 and 4.0 in the next three seasons. That puts his relative value in at 22.7, 20.7 and 18.4 million over that timespan, meaning he's actually a 21.8 million dollar value for the Astros. I think that means the Astros will pick up his option in 2011, unless he decides to retire.

Roy Oswalt (4 years, 61 million left). Oswalt's relative value isn't as high as Berkman's, but he does have his final season as a club option for 16 million and a 2 million buyout. My projections for Oswalt weren't as linear a decline as for the others, since pitchers generally age better than hitters. For the next four seasons, I have Oswalt's WAR at 4.0, 3.7, 3.5 and 3.0, which gives him a net value of 8.3 million. By that fourth season, Oswalt will actually be -2.1 million dollars under his contract. I'm not sure what his mindset will be, but I know he's said he doesn't want to pitch forever. I think it's more likely Oswalt retires before the end of his contract over Berkman, but either way, the Astros are getting good value.

Hunter Pence (1 year, 435,000 left). I go back and forth on Pence, thinking his trade value outweighs his real value to the Astros. Pence has one year left before going to arbitration, when his price tag will skyrocket. Still, his WAR should stay pretty steady through the next four seasons. He'll get to a WAR of 4.0 in 2009, which is around what he did in his rookie season, but fell off to just under 3.0 last season. Since he's 26 this season, he's entering his prime, so I projected his WAR at 4.0, 4.0, 3.5 and 3.5 through arbitration. That means his value will be 42.5 million dollars over what the Astros will pay him. He should get around 7 million next season in arbitration, followed by 9.7 million and 12.9 million in his final season. It'll be interesting to see if the Astros buy out any of those seasons with a long term contract before then.

Now for the prospects: By a different system, smart people came up with a way to value prospects in deals. Jason Castro is the most valuable minor leaguer in the Astros system, carrying a tag of 25.1 million. Jordan Lyles clocks in next at 15.9 million and Bud Norris is at 9.8 million. Ross Seaton clocks in at 7.3 million while Brian Bogusevic has a value of 5.5 million. The rest are all at or around a million. Pitchers like Chia-Jen Lo and Polin Trinidad (1.5 million) and hitters like Collin DeLome (700,000) and Chris Johnson (500,000) are some of the most valuable guys in the system. Those values are based off the Baseball America mid-season list and John Sickel's pre-season ratings. I'd quibble some with those rankings now, but not enough to significantly change the numbers. Still, it's very interesting to see how valuable the prospects are.

Friday's Trip to the Minors

2009-07-17T07:35:00.000-07:00

So today will definitely be a two-post day, but the second post will be about the Astros team in general and not confined to the minor league system. I found some really neat stuff this morning on player values that I think you'll be interested in. As for the minor league system, I'm still going live with two special features next Monday and Tuesday and I may add my first ever Astros Prospect Top 25, complete with analysis. Get excited for that. Since we've got a big day ahead, let's get right to all the news and notes from around the minors:

Shortstop Tommy Manzella hit a grand slam with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning on Thursday to put the Express on top 5-4. The 26-year old was 2 for 6 with a walk, a run scored, the home run and four RBIs. Manzella is batting .244/.326/.439 this month and his season average is at .272. All in all, not a bad season for Manzella and must give the Astros some trust in him to maybe hold down the starting job after Tejada leaves in free agency.

Manzella's homer put Round Rock up by one run, but reliever Casey Daigle gave up a run in the top of the eighth to tie the score. That's where the game stayed for another six innings, before Oklahoma City scored two in the top of the 14th off of Round Rock's Jeremy Johnson to win the game. Johnson pitched four innings while allowing three hits and two earned runs, striking out three and walking one. Johnson is usually a starter, but with the addition of Felipe Paulino to the Round Rock rotation, Johnson may have gotten bumped back to the bullpen.

No matter which way you slice it, Corpus Christi's Jhonny Florentino is having an excellent month of July. The 25-year old third baseman is batting .375/.388/.521 this month. His ballpark adjusted OPS is at .931, his weighted OBA is at .380 and his BABiP is at .395. All these numbers are remarkable similar to what he's done so far, which suggests this may not be due to luck as much as talent. At 25, Florentino is definitely old to be considered a prospect. Still, he's a good hitter who's got a line of .295/.348/.398 this season. Plus, he's only struck out 34 times in 244 at-bats.

How do I know Lancaster has one of the most outlandish ballparks in the minors? How about this: three different JetHawks players have 20 hits already this month in Koby Clemens, Matt Weston and J.B. Shuck. How many games has Lancaster won in that time? 9-7, just two games above .500 with an absolutely crazy offense. Those three players have combined to create 54 runs this month. The team has scored 99 runs in July and given up 76, which is actually decent, but that's an average of 11.67 runs a game. The league average is 10.1 runs in a game. It gets even worse when you split out the Lancaster home games. Granted, they've only played seven this month, but scored a total of 13.28 runs a game. When you compare that to the away scoring of 10.25 (right in line with the league average), it's astonishing that Lancaster's games have an average of three more runs than the rest of the league. I ran the numbers for the entire season and there have been 574 runs scored at JetHawks Field this season in 45 games while Lancaster has played in 46 games on the road. Those road games have seen 11.09 runs scored. That 1.7 run difference per game is really enormous.

Lancaster's Leandro Cespedes started on Thursday and put together a nice outing. In five innings, Cespedes gave up three hits and two earned runs to pick up his fifth victory of the season. The righty struck out five and walked two for a game score of 56, his third straight above-average start. The problems I see with Cespedes are two-fold. First, he's been very inconsistent this season. When he's good, he strikes out the side. When he's bad, he's horrendous. Cespedes is the only starting pitcher I've followed this season to record a negative game score. His average game score at this point is a 44, but it should be higher. He's actually put together some decent starts and always strikes out a bunch of batters. The two single digit game scores really hurt the average, though. Second, his K/9 rate is the lowest it's been in three years at 7.60 and his BB/9 rate is a career-high 3.42. Naturally, as the talent level gets tougher, a player's stats regress some, but this is not promising. The main thing making Cespedes a good prospect is his ability to strike guys out. If he's starting to slip there AND he continues to have injury problems, he may not be a top prospect for long.

Another day, another two hits for Jay Austin. Wednesday was apparently just a hiccup for the 18-year old, because on Thursday, Austin was 2 for 4 with two runs scored and a triple. He's 25 for 58 now this month with three doubles, four triples, one home run and a line of .431/.459/.672. Let's wait a little longer before we name him player of the month, though.

One Legends player who is struggling this month is third baseman Ebert Rosario. The 22-year old is hitting .226/.305/.264 in 57 plate appearances with just two doubles. After hitting .375 in April, Rosario has alternated good and bad months. In May, he hit .220 but followed that up with a .270 average in June, which is right around where his season line is now at .275/.306/.375. At the beginning of the season, there was talk about Rosario being a good third base prospect. He's shown, though, that he has a ways to go.

That's right, Omaha's favorite son Max Fearnow upped his scoreless streak to four appearances and 8 innings on Thursday. Fearnow struck out one while walking none and allowed two hits. The 22-year old has struck out five and walked two this month with a 7/11 G/F ratio. Fun Nebraska fact: Kool-Aid was invented in Hastings, NE by Edward and Kitty Perkins in 1927.

Shortstop Brandon Wikoff is 7 for 15 in the last four games, bringing his average up to .341/.372/.415 this month. The 21-year old has hit one double and one triple with five runs scored and two RBIs. More impressively, he's only struck out three times in 44 plate appearances this month and only seven in 77 plate appearances this season.

Utility infielder Oscar Figueroa was 2 for 3 on Thursday with a home run, three runs scored and two RBIs. The 21-year old is 8 for 21 this month with two walks, six runs scored, three RBIs and one stolen base. Figueroa has a line of .381/.435/.524 in July and has played all over the infield, starting at first base, third base and shortstop. Figueroa was signed as an international free agent out of Caracas, Venezuela in 2003.

Of all the pitchers in Greeneville I mentioned, both Jose Cisnero and Nathan Pettus both got hit around on Thursday. Cisnero lasted four innings, giving up seven hits and four earned runs while striking out one and walking one. Pettus was hung with the loss after blowing a save in the bottom of the ninth, pitching one-third of an inning and giving up a home run, two hits and two earned runs while striking out one. The jinx of Minor Musings, I guess.

There are a pair of interesting shortstops (outside of Enrique Hernandez) down with the GCL Astros. The first is Luis Bryan, an 18-year old from San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic and the second is Jan Baldee, an 18-year old from Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Baldee made his professional debut last summer, appearing in 13 games with the Venezuelan Summer League Astros. He's only gotten four at-bats in 2009 but is an interesting guy to watch. Bryan is 13 for 35 this month with a double, a triple, six runs scored and three RBIs with five strikeouts. Bryan's line of .371/.389/.457 is one of the highest on the team. Both bear more watching.

Speaking of Hernandez, the 17-year old is 14 for 47 with a double and four stolen bases in July. Hernandez average dropped under .300 this month after going 0 for 2 on Thursday. Hernandez is also leading the team with nine RBIs.

That's all for now, look for more updates later today.

Thursday's Thoughts

2009-07-16T07:08:00.000-07:00

I'll mention it again on Friday, but I'll be out of town on Monday and Tuesday, so you won't be getting a round-up column on those days. Instead, I'm going to finish up a couple new profiles I've been working on and have them post automatically on those mornings. So, you'll still have something to look forward to. With that, let's get to all the news and notes from around the Houston minor league system:

Bud Norris started the Triple-A All-Star game on and pitched two perfect innings. The 24-year old struck out two and walked none; in fact, the only blemish on his pitching record was a wild pitch in the second inning. However, teammate Yorman Bazardo was not so lucky. In two-thirds of an inning, Bazardo gave up three hits and three runs while striking out none and walking none. The other 24-year old was hung with the loss.

Lancaster's Jose Duran missed a month due to an injury. Before that, he was as ineffective as you can get, so maybe blaming an injury is more constructive than saying he's not good enough to get hitters out in High-A ball. The last few weeks have proved his talent is just fine. On Wednesday, Duran came on in relief of Bryan Hallberg and threw four scoreless innings. Duran allowed one hit and struck out three. Dating back to his return on June 17, five of Duran's seven appearances have been scoreless and his ERA over that period has been 2.87. Duran has been pitching out of the bullpen after being in the starting rotation at the beginning of the season, but the bullpen seems to agree with him.

Center fielder J.B. Shuck was the big hitter for Lancaster on Wednesday. The 21-year old was 2 for 5 with a double, a triple and a run scored. The two hits brought his season average up to .323 and his monthly line up to .370/.452/.593. Shuck also has a K/BB rate of 5/8, which is exactly what you want in a leadoff hitter. Do you hear that, Reggie Abercrombie?

Jordan Lyles hasn't pitched in eight days now, but it doesn't appear to be due to an injury. What I think it may be is the Astros trying to control his innings pitched. Currently, Lyles has started 17 of 89 games that Lexington has played. He's averaging 5 2/3 innings per start and can expect to start about 10 more games, since Lexington has a 140 game schedule. I don't think they'll make the playoffs, though the Legends offense has improved enough to consider a second-half title. Still, if we estimate 10 more starts, that would give him 56 more innings, give or take a few. His season total would finish around 152 innings pitched. Given his young arm and his limited experience before this season, I would not be surprised at all if the Astros shut him down closer to 120-130 innings. He's already proven he can pitch effectively, and I don't think they'll push him up to Lancaster this season. Instead, look for Lyles to become like a college starter, pitching on Friday nights once a week.

Lexington starter David Duncan appears to be the swing man in the rotation now, giving Lyles and Seaton a break thus far. On Wednesday, Duncan struck out seven in six innings but gave up five hits and two runs for a loss. Relievers Henry Villar and Pat Urkfitz each threw one inning with Urkfitz giving up no runs and one hit while striking out no one. Villar did have a strikeout, but also allowed a run.

Well, Jay Austin went hitless in Wednesday's game, but he did walk twice, which dropped his average down to .426 but his OBP up to .456. I'll take those numbers for now.

Tri-City's Wander Alvino looks like the next good Latin American pitcher to come through the Astros farm system. In three starts this month, Alvino has a 3.00 ERA in 21 innings, giving up 14 hits and seven earned runs while striking out 14 and walking four. Alvino's WHIP of 0.86 is very low for an ERA in the 3's, which is why his FIP is down at 2.44. I'd like to see his strikeouts tick upwards a few notches, but right now he's very solid. I'll give Tim Purpura, David Lakey and Paul Ricciarini credit; the Astros have produced a ton of big league pitchers from Latin America this decade. From Wandy Rodriguez to Carlos Hernandez to Felipe Paulino, Juan Gonzalez, Johan Santana and possibly Douglas Arguello and Polin Trinidad someday, the Astros have produced a ton of good pitchers from their international academies.

Brandon Wikoff had a big day at the plate, reaching safely four times after going 3 for 4 with a walk and two runs scored. Wikoff is batting .333/.368/.417 this month but has seen his playing time get cut in the last week or so. Teammate Brian Kemp reached base three times, going 2 for 3 with a walk, three runs scored and an RBI. Kemp is batting .327/.351/.364 in 59 plate appearances.

Of course, Jonathan Meyer hit a double the day after I called him out for not having enough power! Meyer went 2 for 3 with a double and a run scored for Greeneville on Wednesday. Teammate Jose Altuve also made me a liar by striking out for the first time in July on the same day I praised his plate discipline. Hey, Greeneville guys! Stop reading my blog and start playing better! (Actually, you've been playing great. And read my blog all you want. Tell your friends)

I haven't discussed the pitching situation in Greeneville much yet, mainly because there haven't been that many outstanding performances. Two players have stood out this month, though. One is 20-year old Jose Cisnero. The righty has struck out 13 batters in 7 innings over two starts. Unfortunately, he's also given up three hits and four earned runs over that same time frame. His ERA of 5.14 is significantly higher than his FIP of 3.49. Both his BABiP of .182 and his K/9 rate of 15.75 are silly, but in different ways. The only reason he's been as successful as he has (which is reflected in his BABiP) is he doesn't give up many hits. Instead, he strikes guys out. I like that in a pitcher, but his peripherals suggest what little success he is maintaining may be hard to continue.

Another guy I've failed to mention is reliever Nathan Pettus. The 20-year old has appeared in five games this month, throwing five innings and giving up five hits and two earned runs. Pettus has struck out eight and walked two, giving up one home run. His ERA of 3.60 is right in line with his FIP of 3.80 and his BABiP of .330 even suggests this is about his standard level of perfomance. Wiht two saves already and one victory, Pettus looks like he could be a good addition to our minor league reliever depth.

Have to go orient new students now, but I'll try to come back and update this post with info on the Gulf Coast League Astros later today.

Wednesday's Rundown

2009-07-15T06:43:00.000-07:00

Hi everyone, welcome to Wednesday's edition of Astros farm system news and notes. I realize that I haven't done anything out of the ordinary roundups in quite a while, and those can probably get boring for you, the reader. So, it is my mission to either complete the long anticipated Players of the Month for June, to do an updated pitching profile on Jordan Lyles or Ross Seaton, or maybe a hitting profile on one of the draft picks. You will get something today, though, so never fear! In the meantime, you may have noticed a new addition to the side of the blog. I collected all the non-notebook style posts and put them in an easy to find list on the side of the blog. With that, let's get to all the news and notes from the Astros' minors (except Round Rock and Lancaster, since they were both off):

Our Gold Star Performer of the Day is Jay Austin, Lexington outfielder: Another day, another three hits for Jay Austin. That's his fourth straight game with a hit and this month, Austin has a hit in 11 of his 12 games. Over that stretch, he's got eight multi-hit games, including four three-hit games. All this has raised his average up to .284 on the season, which is almost 100 points better than it was at the end of May. Austin also hit a double on Tuesday and drove in two runs. The 18-year old has 24 RBIs this season with seven of them coming this month. Austin also has 22 extra-base hits this season, seven of which have come in July. Suffice it to say there's a reason I've been talking about him so much lately.

Third baseman Jhon Florentino has been very good this month, hitting .364/.378/.500 after going 3 for 4 with a home run and a double on Tuesday. The 25-year old is 16 for 44 with a walk, three doubles and one home run this month, but has grounded into three double plays. He's second on the team in Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage to Collin DeLome, but leads in weighted OBA at .366. Though Florentino has only walked once in July, he's also only struck out three times and has just 33 strikeouts in 240 at-bats this season.

DeLome also had a multi-hit game on Tuesday, going 2 for 4 with two doubles, one run scored, one RBI and a walk. The 22-year old hit in the leadoff spot for the first time this month and is now batting .333/.400/.578 in July. I keep mentioning him for a reason; DeLome is one of the best power prospects the Astros have, and I can see him making a fast ascent to the majors.

Reliever Chia-Jen Lo threw a scoreless inning of relief in his first appearance since picking up the victory in the Futures Game. Lo has made three scoreless appearances this month, allowing just one hit in three innings while striking out four and walking none. Unfortunately, he also had another appearance this month, giving up four runs and four hits in an inning of work. Lo also gave up a home run and struck out one.

Lexington's Brad Dydalewicz was hung with a loss after lasting just four innings on Tuesday. Dydalewicz gave up four hits and three earned runs while striking out four and walking two. Interestingly, Dydalewicz gave up just one line drive in his third straight game. He was followed by relievers Brian Wabick, Henry Villar and Kyle Godfrey. Of the three, Godfrey had the best game, throwing a scoreless inning in the ninth, giving up a hit and striking out one. The 23-year old gave up two runs in his first appearance with Lexington, but hasn't given up one in his last two.

Former Arkansas lefty Dallas Keuchel extended his scoreless inning streak to seven on Tuesday, starting the game and lasting four innings, giving up four hits. Keuchel struck out five and walked none. He's been a solid addition coming off the College World Series, but I imagine his innings will be minimized for the rest of the season.

First baseman/designated hitter J.D. Martinez is 2 for 7 in his last two games for Tri-City. The recently-promoted 21-year old has hit a double and struck out once in 10 plate appearances with the ValleyCats after absolutely destroying the Appalachian League.

Third baseman Erik Castro struggled at the beginning of July, going five straight games without a hit. In his last three, though, the 21-year old is 4 for 7 with a run scored, three RBIs, a double and two home runs. The former San Diego State catcher has a line of .171/.326/.400 this season.

19-year old catcher Rene Garcia also had a big game on Tuesday, going 2 for 4 with a double and a triple. Garcia is batting .259/.310/.370 this month in 29 plate appearances and has walked twice and struck out five times. Garcia has a BABiP of .318, which is higher than his batting average, but not enough so to suggest a drop-off is imminent.

Outfielder Grant Hogue is playing well enough to lead off for most teams. Unfortunately for him, he's on the same team as Jose Altuve (who we'll discuss in a minute). Hogue is 13 for 36 this month with nine runs scored, four RBIs, three walks, four doubles and a triple. His line of .361/.425/.528 is not much different from his weighted OBA of .362. Hogue is fourth on the team in Runs Created with eight and has a BABiP of .448. His speed has been his best asset, stealing six bases in eight attempts.

Second baseman Jose Altuve has been the best player on the ValleyCats roster. With 16.9 runs created and a line of .370/.517/.609, Altuve has been as good a leadoff hitter as you can ask for. The 19-year old has stolen nine bases in 11 attempts and scored 21 runs. Altuve has also hit three doubles, one triple and two home runs, which is very impressive for someone listed as 5-foot-5 and 148 pounds. The best part? He still hasn't struck out this month in 61 plate appearances. That's Albert Pujols-type plate discipline.

Third baseman Jonathan Meyer hasn't hit for much power, but boy, does he have good plate discipline. Meyer is 12 for 42 this month with six runs scored and six RBIs, but has just one double. He's also struck out 12 times but has walked 12 times, giving him a line of .286/.444/.310. With that ability to get walks, Meyer definitely has one big league tool, but we may have to wait until next season to see more from him. Still, he is having a better start to his professional career than Austin did, and look where he is now.

Shortstop Jiovanni Mier has also been a revelation to this point. His defense has been solid, but his bat has also been excellent. When he was drafted, the scouting reports said it was as much for his defense as for his bat. This July, Mier is 17 for 46 with 10 runs scored, 11 RBIs, eight walks and 10 strikeouts. The 18-year old also has one double, three triples and one home run, stealing three bases in four attempts. His bat still has a ways to go, but it's very encouraging for him to be hitting this well from the get-go.

I'm still working on catching up with the Gulf Coast League Astros, but I should have a bunch of updates on that team tomorrow. Until then...

June Players of the Month

2009-07-14T16:00:00.000-07:00

Triple-A (Round Rock Express)

(Age, year and round drafted)

Hitter of the Month: Chris Johnson, 3B (24, 4th, 2006): After getting injured in the third game of the season and working his way back into form, Johnson has had a rocky road this season. None of the Round Rock hitters ran away with this award, but Johnson started to show some power towards the end of the month, which gave him the team lead in Runs Created by the end of June. His line of .280/.301/.460 is not impressive; heck, it's borderline however you look at it. Still, Johnson hit six doubles, three triples and two home runs while stealing one base. He seems to have playable speed and is a pretty good defensive third baseman, but he doesn't walk (three in 103 plate appearances) and his power is spotty at best. It may seem like I just contradicted myself and this isn't the typical prospect highlight package. Johnson, though, is the best of a bad group and you can't help but pointing out the flaws. Is he better than Geoff Blum or Jeff Keppinger? Probably. Will he be a star in the big leagues? Probably not, unless he starts hitting much more consistently.

Pitcher of the Month: Bud Norris, RHP (24, 6th, 2006): This is Norris' second selection as a POM but it is well-deserved. The 24-year old led the team in strikeouts in June with 26 and had a ridiculously-low ERA of 0.96. His FIP of 3.31 and his K/9 rate of 8.31 suggest his ERA may not be a fluke, though his BABiP of .236 means he won't be this lucky for long. Still, Norris has posted two straight 82 game scores this month, striking out 10 in an 11-inning game and twirling a two-hitter through eight innings in the other. He has created 36.89 runs this season, though his BB/9 rate of 4.34 for the season is a bit troubling. If he can get his control mastered a little, he may have a shot as a starting pitcher for the Astros.

Double-A (Corpus Christi Hooks)

Hitter of the Month: Collin DeLome, OF (22, 5th 2007): I think you can tell that I have a fondness for DeLome and am glad he was good enough to be the Hitter of the Month for Corpus. Still, this was a very deserved honor, as DeLome just edged out second baseman Drew Meyer for the title. The 22-year old out of Lamar University hit four more home runs this month to bring his season total to 14. DeLome also hit three doubles and two triples while being successful on three of four stolen base attempts. His line of .276/.351/.469 doesn't blow you away, but his walks are way up this month and his strikeouts remain high. His Runs Created of 17.5 is the best on the team as is his weighted OBA of .315, while his BABiP of .338 is high, but may be sustainable. This month showed progress for DeLome that hopefully he'll be able to maintain in July.

Pitcher of the Month: Polin Trinidad, RHP (23, 2002 out of Dominican Republic): Why was Trinidad recently promoted to Round Rock? 80, 78, 62, 73. Those are his last four Game Scores, during which he gave up just one run and 19 hits in 31 1/3 innings. Trinidad struck out 17 in that stretch while walking four. His FIP is down to 3.42 this season and none of those four starts saw it rise over 3.08. The biggest reason Trinidad has done so well lately is his batting average against dropped dramatically. In April, his BAA was .303 and .330 in May. In June? It dropped to .205, which of course can be misleading. His BABiP of .233 means this success probably isn't sustainable at this level. Still, the only black mark on his resume right now is his K/9 rate of 5.77, which could be higher, but should still play well at the higher levels.

High-A (Lancaster JetHawks)

Hitter of the Month: T.J. Steele, OF (22, 4th 2008): Steele fell a little last season because of an injury, and then missed time at the beginning of this season because of injury. In June, though, all he did was injure a few pitchers' feelings, putting up a .394/.439/.692 line in 104 at-bats. Steele hits seven doubles, six triples and four home runs, scoring 28 runs and driving in 26 more. His K/BB ratio was not great, striking out 23 times and walking just seven times. Steele also was successful on only half of his 10 steal attempts.

Pitcher of the Month: Chris Hicks, RHP (22, 14th 2008): In Lancaster, pitching success is all relative. Hicks had three above-average starts in five tries in June, throwing up game scores of 53, 55 and 63 to go with two stink-bombs (26 and 39), but he did strike out 21 in 27 1/3 innings. His K/9 rate in June of 6.91 is just a tick above his season rate of 6.67. Hicks' final start in June was also his best of the season, as Hicks lasted seven innings while giving up four hits and one run, striking out five and walking one. His game score of 69 was the best of his season.

Low-A (Lexington Legends)

Hitter of the Month: Brian Pellegrini, 1B/OF (24, 12th 2007): I really didn't want to add Pellegrini to this list, because at 24, he's old for a prospect in Low A ball. Add to that the fact that he is back repeating time at Lexington, and he's just not the kind of player that strikes me as a good prospect. Still, he really abused the South Atlantic League's pitchers last month, with a line of .437/.495/.816 in 24 games. Pellegrini hit nine home runs and six doubles, scoring fifteen runs and driving in 26 more. All in all, not a bad month.

Pitcher of the Month: Jordan Lyles, RHP (18, supplemental 1st 2008): Where Pellegrini was the hardest addition to this list, Lyles was definitely the easiest. In 28 1/3 innings, Lyles gave up 22 hits and 10 runs, all earned. The 18-year old also struck out 43 while walking six in five starts. Lyles only had one bad start, lasting just four innings in his final June outing, but he still struck out five. Three times in June, Lyles struck out 10 or more and in two of those games he didn't walk anyone. Lyles has a FIP of 2.08 this season and a K/9 of 11.10 while his BB/9 is at 1.98. As I mentioned in a post last week, Lyles was leading the entire minor leagues in strikeouts. It's safe to say he's been worth a supplemental first round pick.

Short Season (Tri-City ValleyCats)

Hitter of the Month: Brian Kemp, CF (20, 19th 2009): None of the next three teams played a ton of games this month. Tri-City played the most with 10, and Brian Kemp played in eight of those 10, going 9 for 26 with a triple, three runs scored and two RBIs. Kemp has an excellent line of .346/.485/.423 in 33 plate appearances and has only struck out five times. Kemp was caught stealing on his first two attempts, but has been successful on his last two attempts. The 20-year old has also hit all over the batting order, as so many players have shuffled through that no one has settled into a particular spot yet.

Pitcher of the Month: Antonio Noguera, LHP (21, 2004 out of Venezuela): Pitching out of the bullpen, Noguera has been excellent this month. In three appearances over seven innings, Noguera (1-0) has yet to give up a run. He's struck out five and walked one in that span while giving up seven hits. Noguera's BABiP is high at .389, suggesting he can get better than this. Unfortunately, I don't have much of a scouting report on him, though he does have a favorable G/F split right now.

Rookie (Greeneville Astros)

Hitter of the Month: J.D Martinez, DH/LF (21, 20th 2009): The big outfielder out of Nova Southwestern University hit two home runs and three doubles in eight games in June. His line of .321/.424/.643 led the team in every category except batting average, where teammate Jose Altuve had a slight edge. Martinez's Runs Created total of 8.1 was excellent, which is reflected nicely in his weighted OBA of .363. The scary thing about Martinez to this point is his BABiP of .304 means he's actually underperforming to a degree...just think about that for a moment, and realize how good Bobby Heck and the scouting department have been.

Pitcher of the Month: Nathan Pettus, RHP (20, 27th 2008): Our second straight bullpen pitchers threw six innings in four appearances last month while allowing two hits and two walks. Pettus struck out four and had a K/9 rate of 6.35, which is not bad but not spectacular either. He did save two games and has a BABiP of .154, which means he will come down to earth once he gets some more innings under his wings (which has happened so far in July). Still, Pettus was a reliable end of the game stopper for Greeneville and is very deserving of this award.

Gulf Coast League (GCL Astros)

Hitter of the Month: Emilio King, OF (19, 2006 out of Dominican Republic): I don't want to spend too much time on these guys, since they didn't play that many games, but King was by far the best hitter on his team. King was 4 for 16 with a walk, a run scored, an RBI, a double, a triple and a home run while being hit by three pitches and striking out once. He was also caught stealing twice and created 5.4 runs in five games.

Pitcher of the Month: Carlos Gil, RHP (19, 2006 out of Dominican Republic): Likewise, Gil didn't pitch much in June, but did strike out seven batters in 4 2/3 innings over two appearances. His K/9 rate of 13.5 is the best on the team and did not give up a run in June. He did, however, suffer one loss and has a G/F ratio of 4/2. Not much analysis, I know, but there's only so much you can do with a limited sample size. I don't even have mug shots for these guys, for pete's sake.

Tuesday Brieflys

2009-07-14T07:10:00.000-07:00

This is what I watched last night instead of the home run derby. On that note, let's get to all the news and notes from the Astros minor league system (with the caveat that Round Rock is off until Thursday):

Corpus starter Sergio Perez (7-8) had a perfectly average start on Monday, lasting 6 2/3 innings while allowing seven hits and two runs. Perez struck out three and walked five, giving up a home run and hitting a batter. The K/BB ratio and the number of hits given up suggest Perez didn't necessarily have his best stuff, but he did get 12 ground ball outs, which is the most he's gotten in nine starts. His FIP of 6.95 reflects this and it was the second straight start where Perez had an FIP above 6.50.

Drew Locke is still struggling to hit for power since his early-season surge. In his last 14 games, Locke has one double. The 26-year old is batting .316/.364/.477 this season and is keeping his batting average around .256 in July.

Collin DeLome had two hits on Monday, bringing his average up to .317/.378/.537. DeLome is now leading the team in Runs Created with 8 this month and is second behind Locke on the season with 51 runs created.

Danny Meszaros pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings of relief on Monday, striking out three while walking one and giving up one hit. The 23-year old out of the College of Charleston has appeared in five games this month, striking out eight in eight innings. His ERA of 2.25 is half his total ERA of 5.05 and between a BABiP of .238 and a FIP of 3.95, his real talent level may lie somewhere i the middle. He still should be up in Round Rock to start next season and have a shot of making the big league club shortly thereafter.

Koby Clemens was a single short of the cycle on Monday, though he did collect four hits. The fourth just ended up being a home run instead of a single. Clemens was 4 for 5 with a double, a triple, two home runs, four runs scored and seven RBIs. This month, the 22-year old catcher is batting .367/.396/.816 which gives him an OPS of 1.213. Even after adjusting for ballpark factors, Clemens has an OPS of 1.136, which is still outstanding. The only black mark on his record is that he's struck out 16 times in 53 plate appearances. Clemens has always been prone to striking out, but in the last month and a half, it's gotten more pronounced.

Another guy having a big month of July is Matt Weston. In 59 plate appearances, Weston is batting .385/.458/.750 with three home runs, a triple and eight doubles. The former University of Houston star has scored 18 runs already this month and has driven in 17 more. Weston has also struck out 19 times. His Runs Created total of 18.6 is the highest on the team.

Starter Chris Hicks got roughed up following three straight good outings. Hicks lasted just two innings on Sunday, giving up seven hits and six runs (four earned) while striking out two and walking two. Surprisingly, once you take into account his home ballpark, Hicks has created more runs (40) than Yorman Bazardo, Sergio Perez, Kyle Greenwalt, Ross Seaton and even Jordan Lyles. I really think the Astros have a hidden gem with Hicks but since he's stuck in a hitters league and a hitter's paradise of a ballpark, his traditional numbers are disappointing.

Reliever Ashton Mowdy was recently called up to Lancaster and has dazzled in two appearances. His best was a two-inning appearance in Sunday's game. The former Eastern Oklahoma State Community College pitcher allowed three hits and one run while striking out five. The only other out he recorded was a ground ball. Mowdy started out the season in extended spring training, but moved up to Lexington in late April and has been good ever since.

Until Jay Austin cools off, I'm going to keep talking about him. Considering he went 6 for 13 over the weekend with two doubles and a triple, it's safe to say you'll keep hearing about him. Austin is now 20 for 47 this month with seven runs scored and five RBIs. Austin has hit two doubles, three triples and home run while stealing six bases in seven attempts. His Runs Created of 14.3 is three times the number of any other player on the team and he's still batting .426/.438/.660 for the month.

Shortstop Chris Jackson is off to a good start in Lexington after being demoted from Lancaster. Jackson is 4 for 14 wiht a run scored, an RBI and a triple since being sent down a level. His like of .286/.353/.429 is one of the best on the team, though he's only gotten a handful of plate appearances.

Starter Ross Seaton hasn't been pushed out of the rotation, and had a nice start on Sunday. In six innings, Seaton gave up seven hits and five runs but only one of those was earned. The 19-year old also struck out six and walked two while giving up a home run and hitting a batter. The strikeouts tied a season-high for Seaton and, though his game score was at an even 50, this continued his run of success. I don't love his K/9 rate (5.23) and his BB/9 rate is a touch high at 2.47, but he rarely gives up home runs and his K/9 rate over the past three starts is up to 6.60. Seaton is definitely improving, if not as fast as Jordan Lyles, it's still there.

Tri-City's Brian Kemp has a nice little eight-game hitting streak going right now and has brought his season average up to .342/.419/.392. Kemp is definitely a leadoff hitter-type, but he gets on base at a good clip and makes a very useful chip in the farm system coffers.

Max Fearnow started a game for Tri-City on Monday, pitching three scoreless innings to extend his streak to six innings without giving up a run. Omaha's own gave up two hits while striking out two and walking one. Fun Omaha fact: The Omaha zoo is literally next door to Rosenblatt Stadium and holds the largest indoor jungle in the States and one of the coolest gorilla exhibits around.

Another ValleyCat starter, Colton Pitkin, threw a complete game on Friday as the teams made up a postponed game from Thursday. Pitkin gave up three runs in seven innings, striking out two and walking none while allowing nine hits. Pitkin has thrown 27 1/3 innings over five starts this season, striking out 18 while walking 12. His team has also only scored eight runs in support of him and has been shut out in three of his five starts.

Greeneville starter Luis Cruz turned in his second-best start of the season when he struck out eight over six innings on Monday. Cruz allowed four hits and two runs while walking one to get a no-decision. The 19-year old also hit his first two batters of the season and had a game score of
63. It was also the first time since his first start that his G/F ratio had trended toward the ground balls; surprisingly, his first start was also his best. Cruz is averaging 7.83 K/9 innings and 2.74 BB/9 innings this season.

That's all for today...we'll be back tomorrow with more news and notes.

Weekend Leftovers

2009-07-13T07:35:00.000-07:00

First, I'd like to mention this article by Joe Posnanski. He's one of the best sportswriters around; he just happens to cover the Royals and the Chiefs, so don't hold that against him. His blog is fantastic and filled with very insightful posts and I recommend you read it every day. This article I'm linking to today, for example, explains why I can get frustrated with the way the Astros run their team, yet still devote so much time to tracking their minor leaguers. So, with that in the books, let's continue to all the news and notes from this weekend's minor league action:

Round Rock's Big Three all pitched this weekend. Polin Trinidad went first, and twirled a real gem. Trinidad allowed four hits in eight scoreless innings, striking out five and walking three. His game score of 76 was his third-highest of the season and his best start in five starts. Trinidad did give up three walks for the second time pitching for the Express, but he hasn't given up a home run in seven starts. I'm going to shut myself down from talking about his G/F ratio, because he's got such a small sample size in Round Rock. Overall, he's trending to right at a 1.0 G/F ratio, but he's been much more fly ball prone with the Express.

Yorman Bazardo (7-4) picked up his fourth loss of the season on Saturday. The 24-year old technically got a Quality Start, but it was a below-average effort in terms of game score. In six innings, Bazardo allowed three runs and six hits while striking out one and walking one. He also got only one run of support from the offense for the second straight time.

Bud Norris (3-8) got the final start before the Triple-A All-Star break, and was hung with his eighth loss of the season. Still, Norris pitched well, striking out eight over seven innings while giving up three runs and five hits. One of those runs was unearned after Norris committed a throwing error. The 24-year old's walk rate is one of the few black marks on his resume and it hasn't really gone down much, as it hovers around 4 BB/9. Still, in his last four starts, Norris has a BB/9 rate of 3.6 and a K/9 rate of 9, which is right in line with his season numbers.

Offensively, J.R. Towles came back briefly on Sunday, going 1 for 1 in his only at-bat during the game. Lou Santangelo started and left in the bottom of the sixth in favor of Towles. Santangelo was 5 for 14 in Towles' absence with a hamstring injury while Jonathan Fixler was 0 for 7 in two games.

Collin DeLome hit his 16th home run of the season on Friday. The 22-year old also stole his 12th base and was caught stealing for just the third time. DeLome may not walk much, and may not hit for a high average, but he can hit the cover off the ball and he's efficient on the base paths. DeLome has six triples already this season, which is more than anyone other than Jon Gaston, who plays in Lancaster, so his stats can be thrown out as being too ridiculous for comparison. DeLome is hitting .270/.341/.486 this month wiht 10 strikeouts in 41 at-bats, but has also walked three times and been hit by one pitch. DeLome is second on the team in HBP with nine this season, which is one behind Wladimir Sutil.

Though I didn't watch it, I have read plenty on the Futures Game yesterday and it sounds like Jason Castro and Chia-Jen Lo did not disappoint. Castro hit a three-run home run on a slow breaking ball (which is what a big leaguer is supposed to do) and threw out a baserunner at third. Lo picked up the victory after pitching a scoreless inning in relief. Castro will not hit tons of home runs in the majors. Don't get that excited. He will hit, though, and draw his share of walks. I think a .280/.360/.400 line from him would be outstanding, coupled with his defense.

Okay, so I got distracted by the baby visiting the office today, and didn't get past Corpus. Tomorrow, we'll cover more ground.

Heads-Up

2009-07-13T06:51:00.000-07:00

Just wanted to reiterate the reason for all the Aggie posts over the weekend. Those were the stories I had to write on Friday, leaving me ill-prepared for my usual Friday column. Sure, I still managed to get 1,200 words on the Astros, but I wanted you to see what ELSE I was doing. We'll return to our regularly scheduled programming later today.

Friday's Trip to the Minors

2009-07-10T09:16:00.002-07:00

I'm going to start off this post by referring you to another blog...that's right, go away! Come back when you've caught up on all the transactions and such from around the Astros minor league system. The good people over at Farmstros do a much better job than I do at tracking down the reasons why guys move around and getting explanations on where they've gone.

Here's a link to the main site, where they talk about Eli Iorg being sent to Tri-City, and another link to a monster post listing all the transactions for this season. For instance, did you know that former Aggies Kirkland Rivers and Scott Migl were both on the move this week? Rivers was activated and added to the Lexington roster while Migl heads from Greeneville to Tri-City. See the stuff you can learn there?

At any rate, I'm not sure how much I can get to today with the Astros minor league system, as I've been swamped with work. This has been my first week back at the full-time job and the part-time job has been working me overtime too. So this blog, dear readers, does not get the loving attention it deserves. I promise to make it up to you soon with some more prospect profiles and maybe, just maybe, that every elusive June Players of the Month column. As an added bonus, and to make you feel less cheated today, I'll post all 1,800 words I wrote about Aggie athletics today. That's right, a sneak peek behind the curtain of the Aggieland Primer (a magazine The Eagle apparently publishes). With that, let's get to all the news and notes from around the Astros minor leagues:

Round Rock starter Jeremy Johnson (5-7) got hit around a bit in the 5-3 loss to Nashville, giving up seven hits and four earned runs in five innings. Johnson struck out three and walked two before giving way to Geoff Geary and Casey Daigle. Neither gave up an earned run, but Geary did give up an unearned run. Daigle continued to excel this season, lowering his ERA to 2.52 with a scoreless ninth inning of work.

As mentioned in Zachary Levine's blog, Chris Johnson hit his fourth home run of the season on Thursday, going 1 for 3 with a walk, a run scored and an RBI. Johnson is hitting .276/.302/.417 this season with 16 XBH in 192 at-bats with Round Rock. As I discussed (in the June POM that you haven't seen yet), maybe it's time we start adjusting our expectations for Johnson. It'd be nice if he shows more power, but isn't that true for everyone? Wouldn't it be nice if Jeff Keppinger showed more power? I still think Johnson is the best third baseman on the Astros 40-man roster, but he's not going to be a superstar.

Outfielder Reggie Abercrombie continues to hit leadoff for the Express, which drives me slightly crazy. I'm not saying the team has better options, but Abercrombie shouldn't be in that lineup spot. In 305 at-bats this season, Abercrombie has struck out a jaw-dropping 95 times while walking 18 times. Projecting those numbers out over the entire season gives him around 178 strikeouts this season. For comparison's sake, the major league record for strikeouts in a season is 208 by Mark Reynolds in 2008. Abercrombie's projected total puts him tied for 23rd with Richie Sexson. Out of the top 25 players on that list, including Rob Deer, Bobby Bonds, Ryan Howard, and Adam Dunn, the only one who comes close to being a leadoff hitter is Jose Hernandez, and that's stretching it a little too. Fact is, Round Rock manager Mark Bombard is supposed to be this great coach, one who's got a shot in the big leagues some day. If I were an owner, I'd ask him right away, "Why are you giving away outs at the top of your order every game??? Is that good baseball sense??" Like I said, it slightly drives me crazy.

In Corpus, Andy Van Hekken (4-2) threw seven innings to pick up the victory on Thursday. The 29-year old lowered his ERA to 4.22 and has been good since moving into the starting rotation. The only reason I haven't talked about him more is that his age and his status as a reliever for most of the season leave him off my list of the 200 best prospects in the system. However, relievers Chia Jen Lo and Danny Meszaros each pitched a scoreless inning in this one, continuing their trend of adapting to the level of competition at AA and making me hopeful that they can contribute to the big league team by 2011.

Jason Castro was 1 for 4 while Collin DeLome was 1 for 5, but the real story is Jhonny Florentino, who was 4 for 5 with one RBI. Florentino is batting .285 this season and has a line of .333/.360/.375 this month. Florentino isn't a prospect I'm overly excited about, simply because he hasn't shown much power. Corpus Christi boasts a park factor of 1.15 on home runs, so it should be easier to hit a few into the Bay and Florentino simply hasn't. He's got the versatility to play at multiple infield spots, and I can see him being valuable in an Eric Bruntlett-type role.

The story on Thursday in Lancaster's game against Rancho Cucamonga was catcher Koby Clemens hitting a three-run home run in the top of the 10th to give the JetHawks the lead. But, the real story should have been the fact that no Lancaster pitcher gave up more than two runs in the game. Of course, this wasn't a home game for Lancaster, so they weren't playing in the launching pad and while the California League does seem to favor hitters, none of the parks are as extreme as Lancaster's.

Outfielder/Designated Hitter T.J. Steele had a nice day at the plate, going 2 for 4 with a double, a run scored and two RBIs. Steele is batting .352/.393/.582 this season with five home runs, seven triples and nine doubles, as he apparently likes odd numbers. Steele played in just six games before June due to injuries, but hit .394/.439/.692 last month.

Former Lancaster and Tri-City starter David Duncan pitched his first game for Lexington on Thursday, taking Ross Seaton's spot in the rotation. Duncan was bad, giving up five runs in five innings, and hasn't proven this season that he can pitch well at the lower levels of the minor leagues. However, the skipping of Seaton is interesting. It's not the first time this has happened, and I'm wondering if this is just a way for the Astros to control his total innings pitched (currently at 88 2/3 innings) or if this is an injury/ineffectiveness thing. Seaton's ERA has been solid this season and currently sits at 2.64, but he hasn't missed enough bats for my tastes.

Outfielder Jay Austin didn't cry too much over his nine game hitting streak being broken on Wednesday. He just went 3 for 5 the next night, raising his season average up to .275 and his monthly averages up to .436/.450/.641. Austin also stole two bases and has been successful on three of four attempts this month. It may have took him a year after being drafted, but the 18-year old is finally putting together a string of games you can get excited about.

Finally, Tri-City outfielder Brian Kemp went 2 for 5 on Thursday to bring his average up to .333/.417/.381. Kemp hasn't shown much power yet, but his bat has been very consistent, which is needed on a team that is averaging 6.7 hits a game. Kemp has accounted for 1.2 of those 6.7 hits, roughly 17% of the team's total.

Thursday's Thoughts

2009-07-09T07:04:00.000-07:00

It's going to be another short day today, as I've got about five different projects I'm working on right now and I'm going on my seventh consecutive day with less than four hours sleep. Aren't newborns wonderful? At any rate, here's all the news and notes from around the Astros farm system:

The Gold Star Performance of the Day goes to Greeneville second baseman Jose Altuve. The 19-year old was 1 for 3 with a home run, two runs scored, one RBI and two walks on Wednesday. I haven't gotten to mention him yet, but boy, what a season he's having already. Altuve leads Greeneville with 12 Runs Created this month and has gone 12 for 33 with 10 walks, 14 runs scored, 5 RBIs, two doubles, one triple, two home runs and five stolen bases in July. For the season, Altuve is batting .343/.439/.514 with eight stolen bases in 10 attempts. Did I mention that he hasn't struck out this month and has just four strikeouts this season? Suffice it to say, I'm excited about his development now and would rate him in my top 20 prospects in the organization right now.

Round Rock shortstop Tommy Manzella may also be injured, like teammate J.R. Towles. Manzella left Monday's game early and hasn't played since, with recently-demoted Edwin Maysonet starting at shortstop. I wouldn't think anything of this if Manzella hadn't led the team in plate appearances the past two months. Doesn't seem like the manager giving him a good rest as it does that he's hurt in some way. He hasn't been placed on the DL like Towles, but it's definitely a situation to keep an eye on.

In Towles' stead, catcher Lou Santangelo had a monster night on Wednesday. The 26-year old went 3 for 4 with a double, a home run, one run scored and 5 RBIs. Santangelo also walked once and is now leading the team in RBIs this month with six. He's only hitting .191/.245/.335 for the season with three home runs, two triples and 12 doubles in 188 plate appearances.

It was apparently a good night to be a catcher on Wednesday, as Lancaster's Koby Clemens hit his fifth home run of the season in the 6-3 loss to Rancho Cucamongo. Clemens was 1 for 4 with two RBIs and two strikeouts. The 22-year old has only walked once in July but has struck out 11 times and has a line of .276/.300/.517 this month. His adjusted OPS is at .779 and his BABiP of .412 suggest he's also been lucky to be that successful to this point.

The JetHawks only managed three hits as a team, but scored two more runs on a Marco Cabral home run. Lancaster has lost seven of their last 11 but has scored almost six runs a game during that streak. The reason they've struggled this season is the pitching staff, which now sports an ERA of 5.90 and ranks dead last in the California League in ERA, home runs allowed, strikeouts and WHIP. No wonder the Astros don't want to promote Jordan Lyles up here.

Lexington's Brad Dydalewicz had an excellent start on Wednesday, throwing 6 1/3 innings while allowing three hits and two runs (one earned). The 19-year old struck out five while walking two and gave up his fourth home run of the season. Dydalewicz had a game score of 64, which tied for the third-highest total this season. In his 12 starts, Dydalewicz has pitched poorly only twice, giving up six runs each time, but has been above average in seven of the 12. Since returning from the disabled list, Dydalewicz has hit a few bumps in the road, but has seen his K/9 rate tick upwards to 5.86 and has had a pretty constant G/F ratio of 51/24. His Power/Finesse ratio is over 1.00 at 1.05 for the first time this season, after posting PFRs above 1 in five of his last six starts.

Outfielder Steve Brown had a big day for Lexington, going 2 for 4 with a triple, a home run, two runs scored and two RBIs. Brown is hitting just .190/.261/.476 this month and .239/.294/.413 on the season but has been effective in the middle of the order for Lexington. I have the feeling that the South Atlantic League is a bit pitcher-heavy this season, with the league's teams averaging just 4.27 runs a game. That's half a run lower than the lowest total in the rest of the Astros minor league teams.

Former Arkansas starter lefty and seventh round draft pick Dallas Keuchel made his professional debut on Wednesday, starting the game and throwing three scoreless innings. Keuchel allowed one hit while striking out two and walking none. I expect the Astros to take it easy with him this summer to prevent his arm from falling off, after throwing 108 innings in college this season.

Omaha's own Max Fearnow made his second straight scoreless appearance on Wednesday, allowing one hit and striking out one in an inning of work. Fun Nebraska Fact: Omaha is the state's biggest city, followed by the state capitol in Lincoln. The third biggest? Well, on Nebraska football game days, it's Memorial Stadium, filled with over 100,000 fans.

Centerfielder Brian Kemp continues to impress, as he extended his current mini-streak to four games with a 1 for 4 day at the plate. Kemp is 10 for 32 this month with one walk, two runs scored and one stolen base. Kemp has struck out six times, but his Runs Created total of 3.2 is the highest on the team.

After leaving the June 24th game with an injury, Greeneville centerfielder Grant Hogue has returned the past four games and acquitted himself well. In 22 plate appearances, Hogue is batting .333/.455/.500 with four runs scored, two RBIs, four stolen bases, a double and a triple. Hogue had been batting leadoff but Jiovanni Mier and Jose Altuve have a stranglehold on the top two spots in the order.

Mier has been just as good after struggling a little last month. The 18-year old is 12 for 34 in July with three walks, eight runs scored, seven RBIs, one double, two triples and a home run. Mier has struck out seven times, but I'm more willing to forgive a lack of plate discipline in a shortstop with some pop and a good glove. Those guys don't grow on trees.

Okay, I know this is brief, but that's all we have time for today. I'll be back tomorrow with more!

Wednesday's Rundown

2009-07-08T07:29:00.000-07:00

I am just about finished with my June Players of the Month, which is just a bit behind the Astros' schedule, since they just released their POMs here. I'll get mine uploaded in the next day or two, but I'm still working on it, so I may be brief with the rundown today. Without further ado, here's all the news and notes from the Astros minor league system:

Okay, Jordan Lyles is now becoming slightly ridiculous and definitely earns our Gold Star Performance of the Day. The 19-year old got a no decision last night, but it was no fault of his own. Lyles struck out ten while walking one in seven innings, giving him a game score of 72. It was the third time this season he's had a game score in the 70's and the fourth time he's struck out double-digit batters. This season, Lyles has struck out 118 and walked 21, giving him a K/9 rate of 11.18 and a BB/9 rate of 1.98. As I said, ridiculous. He's currently leading the South Atlantic League in strikeouts and would also be leading the Florida State League, the Midwest League, the Carolina League, the California League, the Texas League, the Southern League, the Eastern League, the Pacific Coast League (currently led by Astros starter Bud Norris with 99), and the International League. In case you didn't notice, that's every full-season league in the minors, meaning Lyles is currently leading all minor leaguers in strikeouts. I realize there is a difference in talent levels, but that's still pretty cool.

Thanks to farmstros for the update on J.R. Towles, who apparently has a tweaked hamstring and will be out until at least this weekend. If you haven't visited his site yet, it's one of the best places on the web to get information on the Astros minor league transactions.

Round Rock's Yorman Bazardo tied his season high with six strikeouts on Tuesday. Bazardo (7-3) threw a complete game, pitching eight innings in the loss while allowing two earned runs and eight hits. The 24-year old walked one and hit one batter. Interestingly, Bazardo also had a positive G/F ratio for the seventh straight start, with 11 ground ball outs and 6 fly ball outs. For the season, Bazardo has a ratio of 142/88 G/F.

Outfielder Yordany Ramirez his his ninth home run of the season on Tuesday. The 24-year old is batting .273/.273/.500 this month in 24 plate appearances. Ramirez has been very streaky this season, and is hitting just .264 overall. His .229/.242/.354 line in June was one of the worst on the Astros high minors teams.

Corpus Christi starter Sergio Perez got roughed up again last night, lasting just four innings while giving up seven hits and five earned runs. Perez struck out one while walking three and gave up a home run and hit one batter. His FIP of 8.95 was his second highest of the season and the highest in nine starts.

Reliever Danny Meszaros might have had a rough June, but he has started out the month of July strongly. On Tuesday, the 23-year old threw three scoreless innings, striking out three and walking one while giving up one hit. Meszaros has yet to give up a run in either of his two appearances this month.

The Hooks only managed two hits on Tuesday but still scored two runs. Wladimir Sutil scored one of them and finished 1 for 4 with a double. Third baseman Jhon Florentino had the other hit, also going 1 for 4 and raising his averages this month to .211/.250/.263.

Lancaster starter Chris Hicks pitched his third straight above-average game on Tuesday, recording a game score of 56. It was also the third straight game where Hicks has given up only one earned run. However, he appears to have been a bit lucky against Rancho Cucamonga, giving up zero line drives and having a FIP of 5.70. His defense definitely helped him out, recording a DER of .800, the highest total of the season for Hicks.

First baseman Matt Weston had another big game for Lancaster, going 2 for 5 with a double and an RBI. The 24-year old has 11 RBIs already this month and eight XBH, which translates to a weighted OBA of .575 and 13.8 Runs Created.

Lexington outfielder Jay Austin extended his hitting streak to nine games on Tuesday, but it must've been a bit of a disappointment considering what he's done lately. The 18-year old went 1 for 4 with a strikeout, lowering his monthly averages to .467/.484/.733. That's downright pedestrian, though his Runs Created total of 10.5 is still second only to Weston in the Astros system.

Astros' pitcher of the month Brian Wabick (5-0) stayed perfect on the season by vulturing a win away from Lyles. The 21-year old pitched two hitless innings on Tuesday, giving up a single walk as the only baserunner. Wabick has a slightly higher ERA of 4.63 but has been very good for the past six weeks and hasn't allowed a run in three appearances this month.

One last thought: Tri-City starter and Baytown's own Colton Pitkin (2-2) picked up his second victory on Tuesday. The 19-year old threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing five hits and four walks while striking out six. Pitkin has had game scores in the 60's for three of his four starts and induced three double play balls on Tuesday. He's given up just three earned runs in 20 1/3 innings and has a K/9 rate of 7.08. His BB/9 rate is sky high at 5.31, but that may come down with more starts under his belt. Still, it's a promising start to the season for him.

Tuesday Brieflys

2009-07-07T06:58:00.000-07:00

Let's lead off with the Houston Chronicle's latest Minor League Notebook. I agree with most everything Levine says, and I realize he doesn't have as much time to obsess over the minors like I do, but I have to again bring up the point from yesterday. Drew Locke's power has just disappeared in the past month. Yes, he'd been great before that, but you also have to bring up this latest dip. After all, he's a 26-year old power hitter who somehow got away from an organization like the Dodgers. At any rate, let's get to all the news and notes from the Astros minor leagues:

Our Gold Star Performance for today comes from another Low-A player. Lexington's Kyle Greenwalt put up his best start of the season, and the second-best start on the entire Legends staff to this point, by throwing eight scoreless innings and allowing two hits on Monday. Greenwalt struck out seven while walking none and hitting one batter for a game score of 85. The 20-year old has a BABiP of .282 on the season, which means his 3.30 ERA is pretty much luck-free. His seven strikeouts were his most this season and Greenwalt has a 5.15 K/9 rate and a BB/9 rate of 1.65, which is excellent. He gets a ton of ground balls, but can also give up line drives in droves, which is why he struggled for so long in May and June.

Again, J.R. Towles did not play on Monday. No update on what's going on with him, but I'm a little concerned that he's missed so many games recently. He hasn't played since June 30th, as I mentioned yesterday, but is not on the disabled list nor has he been promoted.

The Express' offense decided to take the night off on Monday, getting shut out and managing only five hits in a 1-0 loss to the Memphis RedBirds. Round Rock starter Bud Norris (3-7) threw six innings and allowed two hits and one earned run while striking out seven and walking three. His game score of 68 is his highest in three starts but, again, a lack of run support doomed his win-loss record. Norris has averaged 3.5 runs of support over his 16 starts, which explains why he's currently got a .300 winning percentage when his expected winning percentage is up to .704. Norris also has had an uptick in his K/9 rate to 9.00 and has lowered his BAA to .209.

First baseman/left fielder John Gall has been good to start July, going 6 for 17 with two walks, three RBIs, one double and three strikeouts. His line of .353/.450/.412 is better than he's done for about two months now. At 32, Gall is not a prospect, but it would be nice if he could get going and spark the Express to some more victories.

Third baseman Chris Johnson still isn't hitting for power, but got on base three times on Monday, going 2 for 3 with a walk and a strikeout. Johnson is hitting .333/.429/.389 this month with one double and one RBI. Johnson has been portrayed as a power prospect, but hasn't even hit 15 home runs in any of his four minor league seasons. I think he's a fine prospect, but if the reason he's so highly regarded is the pop in is bat, let's lower our expectations of him a bit.

Former Rice pitcher Kenny Baugh made his debut with Corpus Christi on Monday and got shelled just a little bit. In 4 1/3 innings, Baugh gave up five runs on five hits while striking out three and walking five. If that wasn't bad enough, recently demoted reliever Tyler Lumsden gave up six runs on six hits in 1 2/3 innings following Baugh. Suffice it to say it was a rocky night on the mound as Jason Castro tries to spectacularly disprove my theory about his effect on the Hooks' pitching staff.

Castro did have a nice night at the plate, going 2 for 5 with his second home run for Corpus, a run scored, two RBIs and a strikeout. Castro is batting .364/.417/.636 with two runs scored and three RBIs this month, bringing his composite season averages up to .307/.384/.487 and his season line with Corpus up to .300/.333/.400. As you can tell, he benefitted quite a bit in the power department from Lancaster's ballpark, but don't be as worried with his OBP; it took him a while to start taking walks with the JetHawks too.

Outfielder Mitch Einertson had a mixed day at the plate. The 23-year old went 1 for 5 with his seventh home run and second stolen base of the season. Einertson is hitting .188/.188/.375 this month in spotty playing time, but since Josh Flores went down with another injury, Einertson has seen his playing time smooth out.

Former Lancaster starter Shane Wolf moved into the bullpen at the end of last month as the team tried to shake things up and get better results from its' pitchers. Wolf still has an ERA above 5.00, but he pitched an excellent game on Monday. Relieving starter Phillip Rummel in the fourth, Wolf allowed two hits and no runs for the rest of the game to pick up his second victory of the season.

I've talked quite a bit about Jack Shuck to this point, as I think he's got a skill set offensively that can easily transcend the ballpark he's in to play at the higher levels. Shuck is hitting .320/.393/.440 this month with three walks, three runs scored, two RBIs, three doubles and one stolen base. Thinking of Shuck as a prototypical leadoff hitter, I looked up the minor league numbers of Juan Pierre to see how they stacked up against each other. Surprisingly, they're very similar. Shuck shows a little more gap power, but that could be the ballpark he's in, while Pierre stole more bases to that point. Their success rates on steals, though, are almost identical. I will be very interested to see if the comparison holds as Shuck advances through the system.

Outfielder Brandon Barnes has enjoyed his call-up from Lexington, going 5 for 20 with a team-leading four doubles in July. Barnes is a player I'm not quite as fond of as, say, Shuck or T.J. Steele, but I think he's making incremental progress. Last season, my introduction to Barnes was a player who struck out one quarter of the time and rarely made solid contact. In 2009, he's been much better, hitting .274/.323/.466 between Lexington and Lancaster in 266 at-bats. Barnes has hit eight home runs, five triples and 17 doubles but has also struck out 74 times. As a former football player turned pro baseballer, I can understand his lack of strike zone judgement; I just don't know that it'll play at the higher levels. Still, I've been pleased with his progress and hope he continues to show improvement.

Jay Austin extended his hitting streak to eight games, going 1 for 4 with a run scored and one strikeout. He's now hitting just .500 this month and is batting .514/.527 /.828 during the hitting streak. Jordan Lyles has been showing for a while why he deserved to be a supplemental first round pick, but Austin hasn't started to put it together until just recently. If he can keep making progress like this, he'll definitely justify the second-round pick used on him in 2008.

Shortstop Ronald Ramirez has also been very good lately. The 23-year old is 6 for 14 this month with one walk, three RBIs, one double and a sacrifice hit. His line of .429/.467/.500 would be the highest on the team if not for Jay Austin going nuts lately. Ramirez is a nice player, solid defensively, but is repeating the South Atlantic League and doesn't look like more than an organizational player.

Omaha's own and Minor Musings new favorite pitcher Max Fearnow made his professional debut with Tri-City on Monday, pitching two scoreless innings, giving up no hits while walking one and striking out one. Fun Omaha Fact: They have the best cheddar popcorn I've ever eaten. It's ridiculously good, made with real cheddar cheese. Ms. Minor Musings has to get some every time we visit.

25th-round pick Nick Stanley out of Florida Southern had a great game on Monday, going 3 for 5 with a double, three runs scored and two RBIs. Stanley has struggled this season, going 5 for 34 before Monday's performance, but raised his average up to .205/.340/.436. Stanley has flashed some power, hitting two home runs, one triple and one double while his 8/11 K/BB has a few too many strikeouts, but is very solid. Everything points to Stanley raising his batting average up more and more as the season wears on.

13th-round pick Jake Goebbert out of Northwestern has also struggled out of the gate with Tri-City. In 10 games, the 21-year old is 5 for 32 with a double, a triple, two walks and eight strikeouts. Goebbert is struggling even more in July, batting .111/.111/.222 in 18 plate appearances. In 30 games with Northwestern, Goebbert hit .280/.403/.486 in 107 at-bats with 10 doubles and four home runs. Goebbert was injured earlier this season, and I'm thinking his timing may not have come all the way back yet. Let's see what he does later in the month.

There are certain kinds of prospects that pop up when you're analyzing minor league prospects. You've got the gaudy stat guys, like the Rangers' Justin Smoak or defensive wizards like Tommy Manzella. Every now and then, though, a guy will pop out that may not impress with the traditional stats, but when you start looking a little deeper, you can get pretty excited. That's where I'm at with Tri-City's Kyle Godfrey. The 6-foot-4, 200 lb. righthander has a 5.54 ERA but a 4.12 FIP and a BABiP of .333, meaning his stats should settle down soon. Godfrey also does a great job at getting ground balls. He's induced six double plays over his three starts this season and has a 23/5 G/F ratio. Even more encouraging is that Godfrey has given up just one line drive in each start, but has pitched just 13 innings thus far. He's still rounding into form stamina-wise, but I think Godfrey could be pretty good.

Another Tri-City pitcher off to a good start is Mike Modica. The 24th-round pick out of George Mason hasn't given up a run yet in six appearances, throwing 7 innings and giving up two hits while striking out six and walking one. Modica has a ridiculously small BABiP of .118 but his FIP of 1.91 is legitimate and a K/9 rate of 7.71 is definitely playable at the next level of the minor leagues. At 22, Modica could be pushed up to Lexington before the end of the season.

That's it for now, but I'll try to come back later tonight with an update on Greeneville and the GCL Astros.

Weekend Leftovers

2009-07-06T11:06:00.001-07:00

Before we get started, here's a quick trip into my night yesterday. That was probably the funniest article I've written for the paper (which isn't saying much, as sports aren't generally funny). We've got a lot to get to, though, so I don't want to delay too long. I'm still working on the June Players of the Month and hopefully will have that done by tomorrow. Without further ado, here's all the news and notes from the weekend on the Astros farm:

Here is your Gold Star Performance of the weekend: Jay Austin, centerfielder, Lexington Legends. The 18-year old is a jaw-dropping 12 for 22 this month with his first professional home run, two triples, a double, five RBIs, five runs scored and his 16th stolen base this season. Austin has pulled his batting average up to .271/.326/.371 with this recent surge. Austin is currently leading all minor leaguers this month in hits and OPS.

As Farmstros noted last week, former first-round pick out of Rice Univesity Kenny Baugh was signed by the Astros and assigned to Corpus Christi over the weekend. The move coincided with the signing of Charlie Weatherby, the demotion of Casey Hudspeth and Evan Englebrook being placed on the 7-day DL. Hooks reliever Chris Salamida was also demoted to Lancaster over the weekend when Tyler Lumsden was demoted from Round Rock. The Express have added Wesley Wright and Geoff Geary to their bullpen recently, causing an exodus of other arms to Corpus.

More interesting to note is that J.R. Towles may be injured. The 25-year old catcher hasn't been placed on the 7-day DL yet, but hasn't appeared in a game since leading off on June 30. Also, Jonathan Fixler has been promoted from High A Lancaster and started on Sunday. Towles has been excellent offensively since returning to Round Rock in May, but he may have issues handling a pitching staff or other defensive liabilities. I'm just not sure what to make of this.

Infielder Edwin Maysonet has struggled a bit after being demoted to Round Rock late last month. The 27-year old is 3 for 15 with a run scored, two RBIs and three strikeouts in four games. Maysonet hit his first home run this season with Round Rock on Sunday and has started at second and third base since being sent down.

Outfielder Brian Bogusevic has had a hot start to July, going 5 for 14 with four walks, two runs scored, one RBI, a double and his tenth stolen base of the season. Bogusevic is batting .357/.500/.429 after struggling with his average in June. The 25-year old hasn't shown much power this season, totaling just 22 XBH in 333 plate appearances, but his speed and defense have both been above-average.

Shortstop Tommy Manzella leads the team in hits this month with six, bringing his season average up to .280/.335/.382. Manzella has hit a home run, a double, drive in one and scored three runs while stealing a base in July to lead the team in Runs Created with 4.5. Other team leaders are Reggie Abercrombie in strikeouts (7), Mark Saccomanno in RBIs (4) and Lou Santangelo in GIDP (2).

Starter Polin Trinidad made his Triple-A debut on Sunday, pitching 6 2/3 innings while allowing seven hits and two earned runs for a no-decision. The 23-year old struck out two while walking three and threw 98 pitches. The strikeout total was not surprising, since Trinidad has only 7 strikeouts in his last 23 innings, but the walks were a bit out of the ordinary, as his BB/9 rate is at 1.31 for the season. Overall, it was a quiet introduction but still had some promise.

Another Round Rock starter, Jeremy Johnson, dazzled on July 4th, pitching 6 2/3 scoreless innings while allowing five hits. The 26-year old struck out five and walked three while posting his second straight game score in the 60's. This comes on the heels of three straight game scores under 50, so it's fair to say Johnson has been inconsistent this season. Johnson has appeared in 19 games and started 12, doubling the number of games he'd started in Triple-A in his previous nine minor league seasons.

The Corpus Christi offense is really struggling right now, as the Hooks have averaged 3.25 runs in their last seven games. Mitch Einertson, Drew Meyer, Mark Ori, Jhon Florentino and Nick Moresi are all have batting averages at or under .200 while only three players (Wladimir Sutil, Drew Locke, Jason Castro) have an OBP over .350. Outfielder Collin DeLome hit his 15th home run on Friday, which was the only game Corpus has won this month. DeLome leads the Hooks in RBIs with four, but no player on the team has scored more than two runs. Locke is leading the team in batting average with a line of .400/.471/.400 and hits with six, but his early season power has completely evaporated. The 26-year old has 26 XBH this season but has only six in his last 132 plate appearances.

Starter Brad James saw his successful run come to a crashing halt on Sunday. James gave up seven hits and seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings while striking out three and walking three. James also gave up a rare home run, as he is an extreme ground ball pitcher; he has not been able to induce a double play ball in only two of his 15 starts.

Catcher Jason Castro only ended up missing two games with that leg injury which sidelined him last Thursday. In two games this month, Castro is 2 for 6 with a walk, a run scored, an RBI and a strikeout. The pitching staff gave up 14 runs in nine innings on Sunday with Castro behind the plate, so my theory about his effect on the staff may be overblown.

First baseman Matt Weston came within a single of hitting for the cycle last Thursday. The 24-year old was 3 for 3 with a double, a triple, a home run, a walk, three runs scored and two RBIs and was hit by a pitch. Weston is batting .288/.364/.654 this season since signing with Lancaster last month and has a .474/.545/1.053 line this month. In July, Weston is 9 for 19 with two walks, seven runs scored, nine RBIs, three doubles, one triple, two home runs and seven strikeouts.

Outfielder Jack Shuck has also been very this month, going 6 for 20 with three walks, three runs scored, one RBI, two doubles and a stolen base out of the leadoff spot. Shuck has walked 41 times this season and struck out just 29 times. He's also been very efficient on the basepaths, stealing 16 of 21 bases successfully and collecting six triples. Shuck doesn't have a home run yet, but he does look like the prototypical 80's leadoff hitter.

Starter Chris Hicks had an excellent start and benefitted from 11 runs in support to pick up his seventh victory of the season. Hicks threw seven innings, giving up seven hits and three runs (one earned) while striking out two and walking three. Hicks also gave up just two line drives while getting 10 ground ball outs. A closer at Georgia Tech in his college career, Hicks has taken well to starting in Lancaster and has overcome that park's hitting-friendly environs to show some success. I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros promote him to Corpus Christi at some point soon.

Another Lancaster starter who twirled a gem this weekend was Leandro Cespedes. The 22-year old almost picked up a complete game on Sunday, pitching 8 2/3 innings while allowing eight hits and three earned runs. Cespedes also struck out two and walked three while giving up a home run. In 57 1/3 innings this season, Cespedes has struck out 51, which is a good rate, but a little down from his 2008 rate.

I'm still working on getting the low minors sorted out, but I did want to mention the job that B.J. Hyatt has done with Greeneville. As you may remember, I didn't like the Hyatt pick too much when he was drafted, but he's been very solid since his pro debut. In 4 2/3 scoreless innings over two games, the 19-year old has struck out five and walked three. It's no sample size worth anything, but I may have been a little harsh at first blush about the pick.

Well, that's it for today...we'll be back tomorrow with more Astros prospectus.

Friday's Trip to the Minors

2009-07-03T10:23:00.000-07:00

Happy Friday to everyone as we come to you live from the Coleman Family Mansion. We have a guest blogger today; he's only two weeks old, but he already knows the park factors for all the Astros minor league affiliates. Before we begin, I also wanted to send you on over to an interesting game story about the Texas Summer League.

There are literally dozens of summer wooden-bat leagues around the country, with varying levels of play. This one is heavy on the pitching, but is starting to bring in more big college names. The kid for Brazos Valley who is mentioned is Travis Smith, a 6-foot-5 righty from the University of Michigan and has a good fastball and some great break on his curve (the three times he chose to use it). I haven't seen much from the hitters this season that I've liked, except for Texas A&M first baseman Brett Parsons, who reminds me a little of a guy like Geoff Jenkins: power potential, good athlete, could play on the corners of the outfield if needed. At any rate, here's all the news and notes about the Astros minor league system:

The Astros signed another international free agent, according to Jose Arangue's Twitter account. LHP Kirby Pena was signed for $350,00 and was actually born in the states. Arangue gives a brief scouting report of him, but I've been unable to run down ages on either Pena or Jonathan Mejia. Once the Astros issue an official press release, I'll try to get more concrete facts. Also, Ben Badler over at Baseball America made a good point yesterday; most of these signings will not play organized ball this season. That leads me to think both of these kids will go to Kissimmee and learn the system before maybe making an appearance with the Astros Dominican Summer League team in 2010. Another interesting development today was this tweet, reporting that all Dominican players will be required to submit DNA tests to verify their true ages and identities.
***UPDATE*** The Astros just released this statement on their five international signees. The only one not headed to the DSL team is Luca Martone, the Italian 16-year old. For those scoring at home, Mejia is listed as 16 while Pena is 17.

Bud Norris got roughed up in his start for Round Rock on Wednesday. In six innings, the 24-year old gave up ten hits and five earned runs while striking out four and walking two. Norris had his lowest game score of the season at 39, but also had his second-lowest Defense Efficiency Ratio at .577. His defense did him no favors, obviously, but he also struggled to get guys out, with his lowest Power/Finesse ratio of the season.

Shortstop Tommy Manzella seemed to shake off the putridity of June by homering on Wednesday and combining to go 3 for 7 with a double, a home run, three runs scored, one RBI and two walks. Manzella's season average is back up to .279 and the home run was his fourth of 2009.

Outfielder Brian Bogusevic had three hits from the leadoff spot on Thursday, scoring two runs, walking once and hitting a double in his first game this month. Bogusevic has hit all over the batting order lately, but seems like he can slot into either the first or second slot successfully.

Starter Yorman Bazardo had his third straight below-average start on Thursday. The 24-year old allowed four runs and nine hits over six innings, striking out four and walking none. Bazardo also gave up a home run for the fourth straight start, which coincided with his worst stretch this season. He's not giving up a ton of line drives and has a positive G/F ratio over this stretch while his BABiP has been right around .300, so my suspicion is this is more a product of his low K/9 rate (5.38) than anything.

Corpus finally got back to playing games on Thursday, and starter Sergio Perez pitched well but picked up a loss. The 23-year old allowed two earned runs and five hits in six innings, striking out five and walking one. Perez did give up a home run but has been much better about striking guys out, averaging 7.61 strikeouts per nine innings in his last two starts. Perez has been very erratic this season, but he has the stuff to be very good. I stand by my assertion two days ago that he'll profile better out of the bullpen. Speaking of bullpens, Danny Meszaros and Chia-Jen Lo each pitched a scorless inning of relief on Thursday, striking out one and allowing one hit each.

The Hooks only managed five hits on Thursday, and Collin DeLome, Mitch Einertson and Jason Castro each had a single. Castro batted twice before giving way to Brian Esposito, and Castro finished the night 1 for 1 with a walk. DeLome and Einertson were both 1 for 4. The news on Castro isn't great, as he left the game in the top of the 7th with a leg injury. No mention in the game story in the Corpus Christi Caller about the severity, so we'll keep an eye on the box scores to see if/when he plays again.

Skipping down to the low minors, Tri-City shortstop Brandon Wikoff doubled and stole a base in his last two games while going 3 for 9 with an RBI and a strikeout. Wikoff has also been very solid defensively, converting 91.53% of the fielding chances he's seen and turning his fifth double play. Wikoff has a Range Factor of 5.86, which would be good enough to lead the National League this season. Wikoff is only batting .250 this season, but is hitting .292 on ground balls and has put 68% of his batted balls on the ground. As I said, he's a little like J.B. Shuck in that he puts the ball in play and uses his speed to put pressure on the defense.

Tri-City starter Colton Pitkin lasted four innings in his latest start, allowing one earned run and three hits. Pitkin didn't have any strikeouts but did walk three batters before handing it over to the bullpen of 2009 draft picks Brandon Stines (33rd round), Minor Musings sleeper David Berner (14th) and Brandt Walker (8th). Berner gave up his first run of the season in his third appearance. Walker walked his eighth batter of the season in 8 1/3 innings. It's safe to say at this point control is something he'll need to work on in the offseason.

When I profiled the Astros draft picks during the draft, I mentioned that outfielder and 20th round pick J.D. Martinez showed some power potential with his swing. He's definitely living up to that scouting report in Greeneville. Martinez is 12 for 37 in his first 10 professional games, scoring seven runs with five doubles, three home runs and 11 RBIs. Martinez hasn't stolen any bases, and has struck out the same number of times he's walked (4). I don't want to spoil anything, but he may show up in a more detailed analysis later on.

First round pick Jiovanni Mier had his first three-hit game on Wednesday with Greeneville before stealing his first base on Thursday. Of course, he was 0 for 5 with a run scored in the second game, so he's still got some work to do. Teammate Jonathan Meyer was 2 for 4 on Thursday to raise his batting average to .200 for the season.

Another middle infielder making a big impact so far is sixth-round pick Enrique Hernandez. The 19-year old has gone 10 for 27 in seven games with the GCL Astros since signing with zero extra base hits, but two runs scored, three RBIs, three stolen bases, three walks and five strikeouts. I was concerned about his bat, thinking his swing needed work, but he seems to be making good contact. He won't need much power to move up in this organization since there is such a dearth of middle infield prospects.

Another GCL Astro having a good start to the season is right fielder Emilio King. The 20-year old signed with the Astros back in 2006 and hasn't hit much in two seasons in the Dominican Summer League but that's a notoriously tough league for hitters. In six games, King has gone 6 for 17 with two doubles, a triple and a home run, scoring four runs and driving in five. King was caught on his only stolen base attempt and has walked four times while striking out thrice.

The Astros final draft pick of 2009, 50th-rounder Spencer Hylander out of Oklahoma Baptist, threw four perfect innings on Wednesday, striking out four and walking none. Hylander has appeared in three games, pitching 6 1/3 innings while walking three and striking out five. His ERA of 1.42 will probably tick up some, but he's not giving up many hits, which suggests he's missing some bats. Since he's an older prospect at 23, I'll be curious to see how aggressive the Astros are in pushing him through the system.

Finally, a note from the Dominican Summer League Astros, where righthander Xavier Baso has been excellent. In 29 innings, Baso has allowed 31 hits and nine earned runs while striking out 27 and walking nine. Baso (4-1) also picked up a save, as he's appeared exclusively out of the bullpen. I can't remember the exact story behind his signing last season, but I believe there was something about Carlos Lee in there, as both Baso and Lee are from Panama. At any rate, the 17-year old is definitely promising.

Here are a couple of roster notes from the past couple of days: second baseman Albert Cartwright was activated from the DL in Lexington. As you may remember, Cartwright was named my Player of the Month for April in Lexington days before an inside pitch broke his wrist, forcing him to miss the next six weeks....Arkansas starter and College World Series participant Dallas Keuchel has signed and is on the Tri-City Roster....The Astros also signed former Stanford pitcher Max Fearnow and added him to the Tri-City roster. Fearnow went undrafted after his senior season with the Cardinal, pitching in 21 games and throwing 50 1/3 innings with a 4.29 ERA. Here is an interview with Fearnow from this spring. It's a small world that he showed up on this roster, because my wife is from his hometown (Omaha, Nebraska), went to the same high school he did and knew his older brother Bryan. I'm guessing the Astros signed him because of their Stanford connections (Jason Castro, Brandt Walker) rather than out of loyalty to Ms. Minor Musings....The Astros must've seen the same things I did about Casey Hudspeth, because he was sent down to Lancaster recently. The Hooks signed 30-year old Charlie Weatherby to fill his roster spot. Weatherby pitched for the independant Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League last season after spending a year in the Phillies organization in 2007. Weatherby was drafted in the 21st round of the 2001 draft by the Red Sox.

Thursday's Thoughts

2009-07-02T11:44:00.000-07:00

We're going to hit Corpus Christi today before continuing on with Lancaster tomorrow and (hopefully) rolling out the June Players of the Month by Sunday. Without further ado, here's all the news and notes from the past month in Corpus:

Outfielder Mitch Einertson had a tough month of June for the most part, but put up an incredible stretch at the end, raising his batting average from .221 to .271 in four games. During that stretch, Einertson is 8 for 17 with his sixth home run of the season and a double. The 23-year old hit .271/.323/.365 in 97 plate appearances this month, with two home runs, two doubles, six walks, 11 runs scored, 11 RBIs and 16 strikeouts. As I've said before, Einertson has never flashed the same power he showed in the New York-Penn league five years ago, but he's turned into a nice player.

Outfielder Drew Locke has been great this season and is the two-time Hitter of the Month in Corpus, but he had a rough, rough June. In 115 plate appearances, Locke's line was .248/.313/.333 with 10 walks, 11 runs scored, 15 RBIs, four doubles, one triple and one home run. Locke only created 8.8 runs this month, which is very low when his season total is 50 Runs Created. Part of the reason for this drop was the 25-year old grounding into nine double plays. Locke appears to be pressing, so hopefully he can pull out of this slump next month.

Shortstop Wladimir Sutil led the Hooks with 34 hits in June, batting .312/.390/.385 in 123 plate appearances. Sutil also led the team with eight doubles and four steals. Unfortunately, Sutil was also caught stealing four times and grounded into three double plays, which kept him at 15.9 Runs Created this month and out of the running for Player of the Month. Sutil had a bit of a fall-off in batting average last month after returning from a hamstring injury, but since then he's looked like a great leadoff hitter, scoring 16 runs this month and walking 11 times.

Jason Castro, who was recently named to the 2009 All-Star Futures Game roster, had a 12-game hitting streak to start off his time in Corpus, but saw his average drop slowly to .288/.317/.356 by the end. Castro did score nine runs and drove in four RBIs while hitting one double and one home run. Power has never been a big part of Castro's game, as he profiles more as a doubles hitter than a pure power prospect. Think Lyle Overbay. Still, Castro only struck out six times in 63 plate appearances but needs to walk more than twice in a month to be successful. While his bat has been only marginally helpful for the Hooks, let's look at what he may have done for the pitching staff.

First, let's look at the good parts of pitching staff in June: Sergio Perez, Brad James and Chia-Jen Lo. Perez has had a problem striking people out all year, with a 33/26 K/BB ratio this season and eight of 14 starts with one or no strikeouts. Still, Perez has been effective over his last four starts, giving up nine earned runs in 29 innings this month. I think he may need to move to the bullpen to be an effective weapon in the big leagues, but he has shown progress this month. James has many of the same problems that Perez has shown (no strikeouts, too many walks), but has been impressive in his last three starts. In each start, James has gone six innings while giving up three earned runs total and inducing at least 10 ground ball outs in each game. James still has a 39/41 K/BB ratio for the season, but in those three starts has struck out 14 while walking four. Lo, who was also named to the Futures Game with Castro, finally gave up an earned run in his final start of the month, going nine innings over nine appearances without being scored upon. Lo has struck out eight while walking seven this month, but has given up just eight hits and has a 1.93 ERA and four holds.

On the flip side though, there have been some bad parts to the pitching staff, namely Danny Meszaros and Casey Hudspeth. Since Douglas Arguello got injured early this month, Hudspeth is the only starter with an ERA over 3.00; his currently sits at 9.00 this month in 23 innings. Hudspeth has also struck out 10 and walked 15 while giving up 31 hits. While his BABiP is up a bit at .321 and his FIP is lower than his ERA at 6.81, Hudspeth has struggled mightily in June. Meszaros has been the same way. After breezing through his first two months with both Lexington and Corpus, Meszaros gave up 13 earned runs in 14 innings this month. His strikeouts are still up (10 in nine appearances) and the 23-year old hasn't walked a batter in June. Still, he's given up three home runs and has a 14/15 G/F ratio. He should trend back downward, since his FIP of 4.53 is almost half his ERA this month and his BABiP of .340 is high. Still, he and Lo were a potent combination at the end of games, so the Hooks need him to revert back to form.

So, let's look at what Castro may have had to do with the pitching staff this month. Castro's catcher ERA is 3.98, having caught 135 2/3 innings and seen 60 earned runs cross the plate. Castro has caught four shutouts, two more one run games and 12 of 16 games with three runs or fewer. Part of the reason it's hard to evaluate a catcher's defensive ability is how much credit do you give them for calling a game? Is the drop in the team's ERA due to Castro behind the plate or just the staff gelling? In games not caught by Castro, the team has an ERA of 5.19 but we also run the risk of making assumptions based on small sample sizes in this comparison. The team has compiled 660 1/3 innings, so that's 524 2/3 innings or roughly 4/5ths of the total innings that Castro has not been involved. Still, it's encouraging to see Polin Trinidad (we'll talk about him more later), Perez and James all respond so well to Castro behind the plate.

The Texas League All-Star game was also held on Wednesday, as Drew Locke, Collin DeLome, Jhon Florentino, Wladimir Sutil and Polin Trinidad all were selected to the South All-Stars. DeLome went 1 for 2 with a strikeout, Locke went 1 for 4, Florentino was 1 for 3 while Sutil was 1 for 2. Nothing spectacular but DeLome did steal a base and Trinidad pitched a scoreless inning in relief, blowing through four batters in five pitches.

A couple of interesting roster moves for the Astros saw the team claim German Duran off waivers from the Rangers and signing international free agent Jonathan Mejia, a Dominican shortstop who has a very intriguing bat, for $370,000. Duran, who is the older brother of former Texas A&M shorstop Jose Duran, will be placed on the Major League DL and will probably join one of the minor league teams in the coming weeks to rehab. Mejia will probably not play short in the minors and will probably move to a corner outfield spot, according to Baseball America's Ben Badler, but we'll keep an eye on him both offensively and defensively. I bet he will be sent either to the Dominican Summer League team or to the Gulf Coast League.

Wednesday's Rundown

2009-06-30T10:02:00.000-07:00

Today's post will cover Round Rock in June, and I'll try to get something more up on Corpus later today, but I make no promises. I'm also working on the June Players of the Month, but that may not be ready until next week. Stay tuned...

Here's Zachary Levine's latest Minor League Notebook, chock full of good information. Of note is that Corpus starter Polin Trinidad is getting a promotion to Round Rock. With a rotation that already sports three fairly quality starters in Yorman Bazardo, Bud Norris and Jeremy Johnson, Trinidad should make the Express tough to score upon in the second half. It'll be interesting to see if Trinidad replaces lefty Mark McLemore, who recently came off the DL or 27-year old Josh Muecke, who is sporting a 4.91 ERA and a 2-7 record, but has a streak of 13 scoreless innings heading into his next start.

Yorman Bazardo started four games for Round Rock while I was out of commission. He his first two were solid game score-wise, but in the first, he threw just two innings of a suspended game and his last two starts were both below average. Bazardo's strikeout rate is still hovering around 5 K/9 though his BB/9 rate has been great at 1.92. He's also generating a lot of ground balls still, which is one of the reasons he's been as successful to this point. I'd still like to see him strike out a few more batters before I'd see him in the big leagues.

One really interesting tidbit about Bazardo? He's allowed 27 earned runs this season, but only two unearned runs. When we get into the number of starts he's had, that stops being a statistical anomaly and starts speaking to his presence and makeup on the mound. Granted, we don't want to make too much of a little thing, but it still shows that he can stay cool with men on base.

The Express and the New Orleans Zephyrs played a wild one on June 20th, as neither team scored in the first ten innings but combined to score nine runs in the 11th. Round Rock won 5-4 but once again, Bud Norris (3-5) didn't get a victory after pitching eight scorless innings while allowing three hits. Norris struck out ten and walked four to post a Power/Finesse Ratio of 1.75.

First baseman John Gall went on a 7 for 8 streak over the weekend, with three home runs and seven RBIs in that span. The 32-year old is 20 for 72 this June with nine walks, nine runs scored, 14 RBIs, two doubles and four home runs. His line of .278/.366/.472 is his best stretch since early April and his 12.5 Runs Created is third on the team this month.

The Express have scored 306 runs this season and given up 360, putting their Pythagorean Winning Percentage at .419, or about three games under their current 36-42 record. Interestingly enough, though, the team has a solid pitching staff and ranks fifth in ERA in the Pacific Coast League. The Express' real problem is not scoring enough runs as Round Rock is 15th out of 16 teams in runs scored and 13th in slugging percentage. It hasn't helped to lose Chris Johnson for a time, though his power has come and gone, while both Tommy Manzella and Brian Bogusevic have been good hitters but haven't flashed much power.

A couple of relievers have also pitched well for Round Rock. 24-year old Sammy Gervacio's ERA is still up in the 5's, but his peripheral stats have been very solid for a while now. He has struck out 15 batters in 15 innings this month, walking two and allowing 11 hits and six earned runs. He's also given up just one home run in nine appearances and has a WHIP of 0.89. His FIP of 2.45 is the lowest on the team. Second on that list? Former starter Jose Capellan, who's got a 5.40 ERA but a FIP of 2.60 thanks to 13 strikeouts in 12 innings. Capellan has a high WHIP at 1.71, but that's largely due to his BABiP of .436 and should come down some. Gervacio is also on the Astros' 40-man roster, so could see time with the big league club at some point.

Catcher J.R. Towles continues to make his case for more big league playing time by going 11 for 43 with 12 walks, four doubles and a home run. Towles was also hit by three pitches, had one sac fly and a sacrifice hit while stealing a base and striking out nine times in 59 plate appearances. His .256/.441/.419 line is more impressive for the ridiculously high OBP than the batting average, but his OBP is one reason why Round Rock manager Mark Bombard chose to bat him leadoff two nights ago.

Outfielder Brian Bogusevic has had a tough month, going 24 for 94 with seven walks, seven runs scored, 13 RBIs, four doubles, two home runs and four stolen bases. His line of .255/.307/.362 is down from his season totals and has reduced his playing time some. He's also been bounced around the lineup, batting anywhere from leadoff to sixth in the order. Teammate Tommy Manzella has also had a tough time of it, putting up a Tony Pena, Jr.-esque .224/.272/.262 line in June wiht 22 strikeouts. Manzella's hitting struggles have also affected his defense, as he committed his eighth and ninth errors of the season in the past two weeks.

On the flip side, outfielder Reggie Abercrombie has been as solid as a 28-year old in AAA can be. He went 30 for 110 in June with six walks, 10 runs scored, four RBIs, seven doubles, one triple and one home run while striking out a whopping 39 times in 116 plate appearances. His Runs Created total of 12.8 was second on the team and I was very afraid I'd have to name him the Hitter of the Month, which seemed silly with that many strikeouts. To be effective when you whiff that many times, you need to have prodigious power, which Abercrombie does not. Still, he tied Bogusevic for the club lead in steals for the month with four and led the team in doubles, so it was a nice month for him.

Interesting note that showed up at MLBTradeRumors.com: apparently, 37-year old reliever Brendan Donnelly has left the Express and become a free agent. Donnelly had been very solid for Round Rock this season and has been working as a closer when Chad Paronto has been unavailable.

Followup on Hitters

2009-06-29T15:57:00.000-07:00

I said I would get back to you about some of the hitters from the 2009 draft, so here we go.

First off, let's look at third-round pick outfielder Telvin Nash. To this point, Nash has 16 professional at-bats and sports a .250 average. He's played all but one of his games at home, and the one away game he played in was as a pinch-hitter in the ninth inning. Nash has struck out four times and walked once, which is not a great ratio, but we have a very, very small sample size. Even though his only extra-base hit was a double, Nash and the team have been productive when he bats third in an inning, as the Astros have scored four runs in the four innings when he's batted third. As for his spray chart, Nash has been a pull-hitter this week and hit seven of the 12 batted balls on the ground. When he does hit it in the air, however, Nash has squared up on the ball pretty well, hitting the majority of his fly balls to center field. Again, sample size needs to be considered but we'll check back with Nash later on.

Jonathan Meyer has had a rocky start to his big league career, sporting a .071/.133/.179 line after Monday's game. At one point, the opposing team walked the bases loaded with two outs to face Meyer; he flied out to left field to end the inning. Meyer is just scuffling right now, a teenager trying to play professional baseball. He has had little luck at the plate, too, which has hurt his batting stats. Meyer is 1 for 10 on ground balls and 0 for 7 on fly balls in play, which are both under the expected averages for those hit types. With a couple lucky hops, his numbers will rebound. He's also using more of the field than the first few games, with a 10-2-6 split on hits to left-center-right fields. His defense has also been solid, converting 90.48% of his fielding chances and starting one double play. Meyer has seen almost all of his time at third base, but did start at short last night, making four plays in nine innings, including three putouts. Meyer has a range factor of 2.50 at third base which is pretty solid for the position.

Brandon Wikoff is the only college hitter I got a profile done on, and he's sort of an interesting case. His defense is very solid, converting 89.13% of the 46 plays he's fielded. The fifth-round pick out of the University of Illinois-Champagne has turned four double plays and helped either pick off or catch five runners stealing. In 67 innings at shortstop, Wikoff has a Range Factor of 5.51 and has 15 putouts, 26 assists and two errors. Both gaffes were fielding errors and came in is first three games. Wikoff gets to a ton of balls, it seems and has a fairly steady glove. He also appears to be the kind of heads-up player you'd expect to come out of a four-year college, helping make numerous plays in rundown situations. His bat is his weakness right now, but he profiles as sort of a J.B. Shuck-type: he hits the ball a ton on the ground (70.37% of balls in play are grounders), but he also hits for a .263 average on ground balls. He also has been a tad unlucky thus far, since only one of his three line drives have fallen for hits. He will definitely be interesting to follow.

While Nash and Meyer have combined to hit just one line drive (which was caught for an out), Jiovanni Mier has been scalding the ball, picking up both his singles on line drives. The first-round pick has also been something of a good luck charm for the Greeneville team. In eight innings where he's come to bat, the Astros have scored 14 runs while Mier has scored three himself. As a comparison, Meyer has come to bat in 25 innings and the Astros have scored 21 runs, mostly in the big inning category (where Meyer batted fifth or later). Mier saw the team score 12 of those 14 runs when he batted second in the inning. Defensively, Mier has been okay, missing one play in the field but making three put outs by catching two line drives and a pop up, assisting on three plays and making one fielder's choice out. In his two games, he's only seen 19 ground balls and didn't make or see one play in his first start three days ago.

Another guy who caught my attention was 15th round pick Ryan Humphrey out of St. Louis CC Meramac. I didn't have any scouting video on him after the draft, but he has played with a lot of speed in his seven games with Greeneville. The 20-year old is 9 for 24 with a triple, four runs scored, three RBIs, one walk and seven strikeouts. Humphrey was successful on both of his stolen base attempts and even helped manufacture a run in one of the box scores I looked at, reaching with a single, then stealing second before scoring on a single to right field. His speed is definitely there, so hopefully he continues to showcase it.

And We're Back...

2009-06-29T07:26:00.000-07:00

Okay, so after a week in the hospital with mom and baby followed by a week taking care of the both of them, I'm back to blogging about the Astros minor league system. What a stretch to be gone! The Astros have signed more draft picks, three minor league teams have begun their seasons and the other four had all-star games sandwiched in the schedule. I'll try to get as much done today as I can, but I'm only working half-days this week, so we'll see how successful I am at catching up.

First off, let's hit the draft pick signings. First round pick Jiovanni Mier signed for $1,400,000 last week, which was 80,000 less than last year's slot price, but more than the expected reduction by the commissioner's office to this year's prices. Both Telvin Nash and Tanner Bushue signed for right around their slot prices, leaving Jonathan Meyer as the lone player I don't have good signing information on.

The Astros have done a great job signing their top 25 draft picks, but still need to reach an agreement with seventh-round pick Dallas Keuchel and 12th rounder Geoffrey Thomas. Keuchel was playing in the College World Series until recently, so negotiations may have just been delayed. Thomas is a high schooler, so he has more leverage since he can go to college and may not be signed. In fact, the four draft picks after Keuchel that haven't signed are all high school players who are probably asking for higher than slot signing bonuses.

I managed to get some pitching profiles started on the three teams that just started playing, and was pleasantly surprised to find a hidden gem. 2007 41st round pick Colton Pitkin has pitched 51 innings over the past two seasons with Rookie-league Greeneville with an ERA of 3.66. Pitkin was drafted out of Baytown Sterling High School and is now in his age 19 season in the New York-Penn League. He's started two games for Tri-City and put up identical 62 game scores. In his first start, he struck out seven in six innings while walking one and giving up four hits. Pitkin (1-1) got the loss because the ValleyCats were shut out. In his second start, Pitkin threw five shutout innings, giving up two hits while striking out three and walking four. Pitkin has good K/9 and BB/9 rates while creating 3.22 runs. His Power/Finesse Ratio is a solid 1.36 and it will be interesting to watch him this season.

One of Baseball America's top prospects in the Astros organization made his 2009 debut with Greeneville. Left-hander Luis Cruz was drafted in the ninth round of the 2008 draft out of Puerto Rico and has an overpowering fastball, according to the scouting reports. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 170 lbs., he's built more in the Roy Oswalt model than a true power pitcher, but he definitely has electric stuff. Cruz has started two games this season, going six innings in each. In his first start, Cruz carried a no-hitter through the sixth before giving way to the bullpen. The 18-year old has struck out four in each start while walking three between the two. He gave up three home runs in his last outing but none in his first, so we'll need to see more of his work to figure him out. He generates ground balls pretty well and doesn't give up a ton of line drives, both things that will serve him well in the future. I'd like to see a higher strikeout rate than 6 K/9, but his BB/9 of 2.25 is very solid.

Second-round pick Tanner Bushue made his professional debut over the weekend by starting a game. The 18-year old lasted 2 2/3 innings and faced 11 batters while giving up three hits and one earned run. Bushue walked one and struck out none with a G/F ratio of 1/6. He gave up just one line drive, and if you follow what the team did with last year's high school pitchers Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton, expect Bushue to get around 50-60 innings of work this summer before moving into the Lexington starting rotation next season.

Another surprising player for me was Tri-City starter Wander Alvino. The 22-year old has started two games in the past week and a half, striking out five and walking three. He's allowed two and four hits respectively in his two starts and only given up one earned run. His line drive percentage has been respectable, though neither start had a G/F ratio higher than 1. Both of his game scores were above average. At 5-foot-11 and 149 lbs., Alvino is much slighter than many of the Astros pitching prospects, but was apparently part of a good crop of Dominican pitchers signed prior to the 2007 season.

A couple of minor roster moves in Lexington saw outfielder Marques Williams go on the 7-day DL, reliever Jose Trinidad return from the DL, catcher Pedro Gonzalez demoted to Tri-City and catcher Reinaldo Pestana added to the Lexington roster. Pestana was signed back in 2004 but hasn't played in the minors since 2007. He is one of three catchers listed on the Legends roster, though it looks less and less likely that Max Sapp will play this season after fighting through a life-threatening case of meningitis in the off-season.

Outfielder Jay Austin has maintained his batting average spike to around .250 this month, going 9 for 38 in the past 10 games. Austin also hit his first triple of the season and had a four hit game last night. Austin is still learning how to steal bases as he was 2 for 5 on stolen base attempts during that stretch, bringing his season success rate to 56% (14 of 25).

I'm going to post something else this afternoon (if the little guy cooperates) on the hitters from this year's draft and how they're doing. Thanks for everyone who's stuck with the blog through the past two weeks, and as always, if there's something you want to read about or a profile you'd like me to do, just leave a comment!

Brief Update

2009-06-16T09:04:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the power outage lately, but the baby has proved to be wily on when he's joining the world. I'm going to be out of commission for the rest of the week, but wanted to write up a couple of things happening around the Astros minor leagues:

First, as noted here and here, the Astros signed 22 of their 51 draft picks over the weekend. All players were signed for at or around their slot price, including second-rounder Tanner Bushue, third-rounder Telvin Nash, fourth rounder B.J. Hyatt and fifth-rounder Brandon Wikoff.

The Astros have six picks in the top 10 still to sign, but only one of those cannot yet negotiate a deal. Seventh-rounder Dallas Keuchel is playing in the College World Series for Arkansas and will have to wait until after his college season ends to sign. It sounds like the Astros are close to a deal with 21st overall pick Jiovanni Mier, but no deal sounded imminent with any other draft picks. It'll be interesting to see if they can get supplemental third rounder Jonathan Meyer inked, since they forfeit the pick if they cannot reach an agreement. Sixth rounder Enrique Hernandez has the option to go to college, so will be a tough sign and eighth rounder Brandt Walker and 10th rounder Erik Castro are both juniors so can hold out for their senior years.

I'm a little disappointed they haven't agreed to a deal with sleeper favorite David Berner, who was drafted in the 14th round out of San Jose State. Let's hope they're not waiting to see more performance this summer before agreeing to a contract, as Bobby Heck indicated in his press release comments.

In Zachary Levine's Minor League Notebook for the Houston Chronicle, he notes that Bushue and Nash will both be sent to the Astros new Gulf Coast League affiliate in Kissimmee. That's also where the Astros have their spring training home and it's apparently quite the posh facility, so I can understand why they'd want to send their newbies there. I'm expecting big power numbers from Nash, if not big overall stats at first, and should have a Q&A with him posted sometime in the next couple of weeks.

Here's an interesting article from a sports agent's perspective about the draft slotting. It also seems to continue the unofficial edict from the commissioner's office to drop all slot prices by 10%. Of course, these slots are only suggestions, as they have not been collectively bargained and therefore there is no penalty for exceeding them. As a sports agent, I'd sure fight this system for every dollar I could get for my client.

I've been lax with my coverage of Lexington the past couple of weeks, but Jay Austin finally returned from whatever nagging injury sent him to the 7-day DL. He ended up missing 10 games but has come back red-hot. In his four games back, Austin is 9 for 19 with a double, four runs scored, four steals, four RBIs and three strikeouts. His averages for the season are up to .250/.299/.304. Again, these aren't great numbers, but considering he was batting below .200 at the end of May, it's a phenomenal improvement. Austin has shown stretches like these this season, and hopefully one of these times he'll start doing this consistently. Till then, we have to remember that he is an 18-year old kid who's still learning the game.

As locked in as Austin has been the past week, Jordan Lyles has been even better and have firmed up my confidence in the drafting prowess of scouting director Bobby Heck. Lyles was considered an over-draft in the supplemental portion of the first round in 2008, but he has been outstanding in the South Atlantic League this season. In his last two starts, Lyles has struck out 21 in 12 innings, while allowing 10 hits and four earned runs. He hasn't walked a batter in either start. He hasn't given up a home run in seven starts and hasn't hit a batter in nine. While his line drive percentage can occasionally be high, he gets a fair amount of ground balls without giving up too many flys. His Power Finesse Ratio is off the charts and his FIP for the past two starts has been a negative number. He's been that good. Currently, Lyles is third in the SAL in strikeouts with 81 and has the fewest walks (12) of the top five strikeout leaders. His WHIP is eighth best in the SAL, though his win total (2-6) is the least impressive of his stat lines. See why I look so deeply into the numbers? This kid has been excellent, but has gotten two runs or fewer of support in eight of his 12 starts. The wins will come if he continues pitching like this. The question is: can he continue to be successful at a higher level?

Lexington's other young gun, Ross Seaton, has been better in his last two starts, though his game scores don't bear that out. Seaton has five or more strikeouts in his last three starts, including a complete game shutout that I mentioned in a previous post. Seaton is 6-6 even though he's gotten just as little run support as Lyles and consistently induces ground balls, which shows he's becoming a good pitcher. His K/9 rate in his last three starts (7.08) is higher than his season rate (5.12) and should be a sign of his progress.

Jason Castro has continued his good fortune with the bat since being called up by the Hooks. In five games, the 22-year old is 7 for 19 with five runs scored, one RBI, one walk and two strikeouts. His power hasn't shown up yet, though he doesn't profile as having more than doubles power anyway. Still, it'd be nice to see him show flashes in Double-A if we expect him to be in the big leagues by next season.

Sergio Perez (4-5) had a good start last Thursday, throwing six shutout innings while striking out two and walking one. The low strikeout total is nothing new, as he's struck out two or fewer in eight of 11 starts. His K/9 rate of 4.08 is only slightly better than his BB/9 rate of 3.30. Interestingly, Perez has only gone over 100 pitches in one start this season, throwing 64.9% strikes. Perez's profile in Baseball America says he will probably end up in the bullpen, but he needs to strike some more guys out for that.

Collin DeLome has continued his hot hitting this month, going 12 for 41 so far in June with three home runs, three doubles, 10 RBIs, seven runs scored and four walks. He still has struck out 10 times in 12 games but he may just be a strikeout-prone hitter. With his kind of power, though, you take the good with the bad. He will be an excellent replacement for Carlos Lee in left, as he has the range to cover the big territory out there and has the power to be a good 5 or 6 hitter in the majors. His 13 home runs currently lead the Texas League.

The lead story in the Chronicle's minors column this week was Chris Johnson and he's certainly impressed. Johnson is hitting .340/.377/.500 this month with four doubles and two triples. He hasn't hit a home run yet this season after finishing 2008 with 13. The article indicates that Johnson is waiting to be called up to the big league team. Why, might you ask? The Astros have used two players, Geoff Blum and Jeff Keppinger, primarily at third base this season. Blum is hitting .270/.341/.329 and Keppinger .257/.333/.404. Blum has the worst OPS of players on the team with at least 100 plate appearances and Keppinger is third-worst (second-worst belonging to Pudge Rodriguez). I don't want to get into why it's a bad idea to play Pudge and not J.R. Towles. I've been down that road before, but Johnson? What have they got to lose? Third base is easily the weakest position on the team. Johnson has a reputation as a power-hitter, but he's only hit 29 in four seasons in the minors. Will he be a superstar? No, probably not, but he might just be an upgrade over what they have now.

Astros Draft Pick Slot Prices

2009-06-13T08:52:00.000-07:00

Based on last year's signings and slot prices and accounting for Commissioner Selig's across the board 10% decrease in slots because of the economy, here is an estimate as to what the Astros draft picks are slotted to sign for. Mind you, this information is not made public by MLB, so I'm getting my info from Baseball America.

1) Jiovanni Mier
2009 Recommendation - $1,332,000
2008 Signing - $1,480,000
2) Tanner Bushue
2009 Recommendation - $522,000
2008 Signing - $740,000
3) Telvin Nash
2009 Recommendation - $324,000
2008 Signing - $367,000
3s) Jonathan Meyer
2009 Recommendation - $274,500
2008 Signing - $120,000

The Astros went over slot to sign one of their draft picks from 2008, Ross Seaton, who almost doubled his slot price in the supplemental portion of the third round. Reports were that the Astros were also willing to go above slot to sign third rounder Chase Davidson, but couldn't come to an agreement by the August 15th deadline. In previous years, most notably 2007, the Astros have been very reluctant to sign players for more than their slotted price. In fact, before last season, the most high profile signing above slot price was Tomball HS LHP Troy Patton, who was drafted in the ninth round of the 2004 draft and signed for $550,000 when the slot for every round after the 5th was around $120,000.

Only two players drafted in the first round have signed contracts to this point. Fourth overall pick Tony Sanchez signed for $2,500,000 and 26th overall pick Eric Arnett signed for $1,197,000. Both are in line with the commissioner's recommendations for the draft slot. This story on astros.com suggests the team may have many of the picks signed by this weekend. As picks sign, I'll update the blog with their price and where they fit into the system.

Thursday's Thoughts

2009-06-11T07:18:00.000-07:00

First of all, watch this video of MLB.com recapping Day Two of the draft for the Astros. Also, the story beside the video is a quick Q&A with shortstop and 5th round draft pick Brandon Wikoff. Some good stuff in there. I'll get to the writeups soon, but the wife is ready to have this baby at any time now, so if I post this half-finished, it's because I had to hit 'publish' before running to the hospital! I also wanted to talk about the Astros 32nd round draft pick, Greg Peavey.

The righthander from Oregon State has a scouting video up on MLB.com. His fastball seems to sit in the low 90's for the most part and his arm slot comes in at three quarters. His delivery is a little violent at the end, but he follows through nicely and is in a great fielding position by the end. That coaching staff up at Oregon State is very solid and obviously imparts good fundementals. It's also a fun little fact that Peavey played in the Little League World Series. I could see Peavey making a fast rise through the system. I don't know how much I'll get to write about the picks today, but if I do get a chance to go in-depth with any of the guys, I'll post later today. With that, let's get to all the news and notes from around the Astros farm system:

Since Round Rock was off on Wednesday, Polin Trinidad will lead off our notes, as he posted his best start of the season for Corpus Christi. In seven innings, Trinidad gave up only one hit, walking none and striking out five. He needed only 74 pitches to get through his innings and had a FIP of 1.77, his second lowest total of the season. Trinidad has had a rocky time lately, as this was the first time in five starts and the second time in seven starts that he's finished with a game score over 50. On Wednesday, Trinidad turned in a game score of 80 and picked up his fifth victory after the Hooks scored eight runs for him.

Jose Valverde also made his first appearance in his rehab stint with the team, striking out two and walking two in an inning of work. Valverde threw 24 pitches, 14 for strikes and got one flyball out. Here's hoping his rehab continues to go well.

Here is a draft video of Astros 35th rounder Jackson Hogue, a centerfielder out of Mississippi State. Hogue may play well in center field, though I couldn't tell how well he throws from the video. His arm action appears good and he didn't seem to effort the throws much, but his bat has me a little concerned. I guess when you get this late in the draft, you're not going to find perfect players. Hogue's swing is long, though, and his base is huge, meaning his legs don't get involved much and he probably won't show much power. If he's got some speed, he could develop into a nice player.

The Astros also drafted their first Aggie on Thursday in righthander Scott Migl. The 21-year old was born five years to the day after me, which is cool on it's own, but Migl has the potential to be a good bullpen guy for Houston. He was named a Freshman All-American in 2007 but has pitched less and less the past two years. Migl appeared in just two games for A&M this year, both starts and may have been injured in his second, as he got roughed up over 1 1/3 innings. He didn't appear in a game after March 18.

Houston's 37th round draft pick was Raul Rivera, a right-handed pitcher from Colegio San Vincente De Paul in Puerto Rico. Rivera's video shows that he can touch low 90's with his fastball and has a nice curveball and change. His delivery is very deliberate but he finishes in good position and his arm starts vertical to the ground. He doesn't seem to use his legs much in his delivery, so I'm sure the Astros think they can coach him up to do that, which will give him more life on his fastball. That's if he'll agree to sign.

To make room for Jason Castro, the Astros demoted Jonathan Fixler to Lancaster. They also seem to have released Jordan Comadena from any roster, which isn't surprising, since he hasn't gotten much playing time in the past month. Castro, in his first game with Corpus, went 1 for 4 with a run scored. He also helped the staff throw a three-hitter, so hopefully, he can help out that pitching staff.

Houston's 39th round pick, Rory Young, has a video here. Young is a high school kid from British Columbia and has great breaking stuff. His curveball dipped down to 62 at one point and his delivery seems pretty smooth. He certainly has the body frame to be a prototypical pitcher, but he didn't show much speed on his fastball, which is why he fell all this way. Maybe with a tweak to his delivery or as he matures, he can pick up some speed on his heater. Until then, we shall see.

Collin DeLome continued to hit well on Wednesday, going 2 for 4 with a double, a home run, a run scored and two RBIs. The 22-year old hit his 12th home run of the season and is now batting over .300 in June. DeLome still isn't walking much, but he also didn't strike out last night and only has four this month.

Jimmy Van Ostrand also hit a home run last night, but it was his second hit of the month as his average plummeted to .105/.227/.263. That's not good no matter who you are and I'll be surprised if the Astros keep him in Corpus for too much longer, as his season averages of .262/.312/.524 have been plummeting fast.

Lancaster finished the suspended game and played the second, but neither box scores were posted. As soon as they are, I'll updated and post about their results.

Astros Draft Day Two

2009-06-10T11:55:00.000-07:00

Here is a roundup of the Astros draft picks today and links to video of them when available:
(Name, Position, School, Height, Weight, Age)

4) B.J. Hyatt (RHP, South Carolina Sumter, 6-4, 205, 20) Notes: Here are his numbers from last season in college -32 1/3 innings, 7.24 ERA, 3-0 record with 3 saves, .273 BAA, 1.61 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 5.28 BB/9. This is at a junior college, so I'm not sure what to make of those stats, but the Astros must project his arm to be something special, because his control is nowhere near ready for pro ball. He'll get rocked if he walks five a game at the next level, and I'm not sure if the Astros project him as a reliever or a starter. With his strikeout totals, he might be an effective late inning reliever, if he can avoid giving out free passes.

5) Brandon Wikoff (SS, Illinois-Champagne, 5-9, 170, 21) Notes: I really liked what I saw of Wikoff on the videos. As incredulous as I was with their fourth round selection, this one makes sense. Wikoff doesn't look like he has much power, but he's got a short, quick swing from the left side and has good speed around the bases. In the video, he's clocked going home to first in 3.90 seconds, which is plenty playable at the next level. His hands also looked good in the warmups that were filmed, making quick relays and solid throws. He didn't look as smooth in the field as Mier, but he'll be a solid prospect in a system lacking middle infielders.

6) Enrique Hernandez (SS, American Military Academy HS, 5-11, 170, 17) Notes: This is a kid who may mature to be more than he is now, but at the moment, he's a project. At short, his arm looked strained and his footwork needs work. At the plate, his swing is choppy but quick but in the at-bats we got to see, he looked like he needed to work on his plate discipline. Baseball America compared him to Luis Matos but with a better bat, and listed him as a second baseman. With his arm strength, that's probably where he'll end up in the long term.

7) Dallas Kouchel (LHP, Arkansas, 6-2, 180, 21) Notes: He is a guy who's a classic Moneyball pick. I don't mean his statistics were favorable, but that he was drafted on his performance rather than his measurables. At 6-foot-2 and 180, he doesn't have the prototypical frame, but he has anchored the Arkansas staff for three seasons and was an all-star in the Cape Cod League last summer. He doesn't throw hard, but with his great changeup, he can be an effective change of pace guy. The sink on his fastball will also lend itself to ground balls, which will help out a soft tossing lefty.

8) Brandt Walker (RHP, Stanford, 6-3, 185, 21) Notes: I'm betting the same scouts who were following Jason Castro last season got a look at Walker a year early. In 12 games, the righty had a 7.71 ERA and only had 27 appearances in his three years with the Cardinal. This is a case of statistics being misleading as Walker had more innings pitched (37 1/3) than hits allowed (36) but still had an ERA over 6. He also had 29 strikeouts in those 37 1/3 innings, meaning his arm is good and rested. We shall see.

9) Ben Orloff (SS, UC-Irvine, 5-11, 170, 22) Notes: Orloff's arm also appeared a little stretched in the short video of him taking grounders, but he should play somewhere in the infield. His swing is short, pulling his hands through quickly, so he shouldn't have trouble catching up to inside fastballs. He's also made 215 starts at shortstop, so he's got some experience at the position. He was second on the team in batting average and led the team in hits (91) and runs scored (62). Again, he just adds to the team's depth up the middle.

10) Erik Castro (3B, San Diego State, 6-4, 200, 21) Notes: Castro was named all-conference and started at four different positions last year. He was second on the team in home runs with 10 and was 55th in the nation in walks. I'm also not sure whether he is any relation to Astros 2008 first round pick Jason Castro. I'll check on that some more.

11) David Williams (C, Crowder College, 6-0, 190, 20) Notes: Apparently, he goes by Bubby. Easily the coolest name the Astros have drafted in the past two years (sorry, T.J. Steele). A draft eligible sophomore, Williams caught and played on the infield this season. I've got nothing more on him other than that.

12) Geoffrey Thomas (RHP, Stephenson, Ga. HS, 6-0, 187, 17) Notes: Has trouble controlling his arm slot. In the video, he threw in the high 80's consistently, but didn't have a ton of break on his curveball. Granted, they only showed him throw the curve once, so I don't want to make too many conclusions. His delivery also looks more violent than smooth, which means he may have a bigger chance for injury long term.

13) Jake Goebbert (OF, Northwestern, 6-0, 205, 21) Notes: Goebbert follows the Northwestern tradition of current Corpus first baseman Mark Ori. His season was cut short due to an injury, but he still managed to bat .280 with 10 doubles and four home runs in 30 games. He showed more power in his sophomore season and hopefully will bounce back from his injury (whatever that was).

14) David Berner (LHP, San Jose St., 6-2, 205, 21) Notes: Now here is a kid I really like. This press release by San Jose State is full of some good quotes from the coach and Berner. He's an older guy who can probably advance quickly. Pitching in the WAC, he also had to play at altitude some, so he's probably used to hitter-friendly environs, meaning he won't be phased by Lancaster's band box. He also led his conference in ERA, opposing batting average and strikeouts. The latter two tell me that the former was no fluke or product of excellent defense. I have high hopes for this one. Lefties that strike people out don't grow on trees.

15) Ryan Humphrey (CF, St. Louis CC Meramac, 6-0, 195, 21)

16) Ronald Sanchez (1B, Manuela Toro Morice HS, Caguas, Puerto Rico, 5-10, 17) Notes: Played catcher in high school and will switch to first base in the minors. He has a good clean swing and loads up well, which means he should show some power at the next level. He's also the third player the Astros have drafted out of Puerto Rico in the last two years.

17) Justin Harper (RHP, Oklahoma City University, 6-3, 210, 21) Notes: The first NAIA player drafted by the Astros this year, Harper didn't have the best ERA in the world but struck out 86 in 71 innings and only gave up 63 hits. His delivery almost drops down side arm at times, but his follow through is solid and his leg kick looks powerful. It's obvious that he's a power guy and he doesn't seem to land violently on his front leg, which can lead to shoulder problems.

18) J.B. MacDonald (RHP, Boston College, 6-2, 190, 22) Notes: After playing sparingly his first three years at BC, MacDonald started fifteen games this season, throwing 96 2/3 innings and allowing 96 hits. The senior also struck out 71 and walked 32 while giving up a team-high 13 home runs. He got to work with a top-notch defensive catcher, so the Astros must've seen something they liked about him. His track record isn't great, however, and he doesn't throw enough strikes for my tastes. Still, he's a guy who can grow.

19) Brian Kemp (CF, St. John's University, 5-9, 180, 21) Notes: In the few swings he took on video, it appeared that Kemp transfers a little too much weight onto his front foot, which will limit his power potential at the next level, but has a nice swing otherwise. He also has an absolute cannon for an arm in the outfield and, if he has the range to play center, should be a potent defensive weapon.

20) Julio Martinez (RF, Nova Southeastern University, 6-3, 194, 21) Notes: Now this kid shows some power potential. Unlike Kemp, Martinez loads up for the ball well and has a natural uppercut to his swing that will help his power. He was timed at 4.40 down to first on a bunt attempt, which is pretty good for a righty. We didn't get to see him field, but he should have an arm if they listed him in right field. I'm interested in why he lasted so long. Maybe teams don't trust the competition he played against.

21) Barry Butera (2B, Boston College, 6-0, 180, 22) Notes: Butera played three different positions for Boston College last season (RF, SS, 2B) but was listed as a pure second baseman by the Astros. He has definite speed, as he led the ACC in triples (4) and a knack for getting on base, with a .400 OBP and six multi-hit games in his last nine starts. Definitely more of an organizational guy than a legitimate prospect, but give him some time in the minors to develop.

22) Mark Jones (RHP, Manheim Township, Pa. HS, 6-7, 205, 18)

23) Robert Donovan (RHP, Stetson University, 6-5, 220, 21) Notes: Donovan is an effort thrower. His whole delivery screams 'I'm throwing as hard as I can.' That's not necessarily a bad thing, but you hope it doesn't lead to injury risk. The body tends not to like jarring activities. Other than that, his delivery is clean. The ball starts forward vertical to the ground, he throws almost completely over the top and he lands pretty balanced on his feet. He's got a tall and wiry frame, one of the biggest pitchers the Astros have drafted so far this year. He'll be an interesting guy to watch.

24) Mike Modica (LHP, George Mason, 6-0, 175, 22) Notes: The Oswalt-sized lefty has an impressive resume. He was named second team All-America and selected as the South Jersey Coaches Pitcher of the Year. He started more games than anyone in George Mason history and is second on the all-time strikeout, wins and innings pitched lists. All that is great and shows he can be productive. What I worry about is all those innings already on his arm. Will he stay healthy? Is he good enough to strike guys out at the next level? We'll have to see.

25) Nicholas Stanley (1B, Florida Southern, 6-2, 195, 22) Notes: Stanley may be a case of a guy who transfers off the radar of some scouts. He played at NC State last season before transferring to Florida Southern and starting all 57 games. He led the team with 11 home runs and 59 RBIs. It's tough to say how his power will translate in the pros, but he's the kind of guy the Astros have been collecting for the past few years: older first baseman with a little pop who can field well enough to play in the outfield.

26) Matthew Watson (1B, Pompano Beach, ME HS, 6-0, 200, 18)

27) Aaron Bray (3B, UNC Charlotte, 6-0, 180, 21) Notes: Another try-hard guy, Bray finished his career at Charlotte with over 200 hits and 200 runs scored. He is the team's all-time hits leader with 293 and is only the second player in school history to top 200 in each category. He doesn't have a lot of power with just 12 extra-base hits this season, but he did bat .339, so he'll at least be a consistent hitter. He only struck out 22 times in 189 innings, so he's got a pretty good batting eye. Still, this is an organizational player who may move up over time and surprise some people if he develops a little pop.

28) Eric Anderson (RHP, Mountain Vista, Colo. HS, 6-4, 18)

29) Garen Wright (CF, Putnam City, Okla. HS, 6-3, 230, 18)

30) Brandon Petite (RHP, Vauxhall HS, Edmonton, Canada, 6-3, 210, 18) Notes: Petite is a big righthander from Canada who throws from a high three-quarters slot. Right now, he's still more projectability than performance, as he's still pitching in the high 80's but should gain speed as he matures. His mechanics need work, as he falls off to the first base side pretty badly and doesn't get into a good fielding position. I'm not sure if he's committed anywhere or how easy it will be to sign him, but he's a guy that projects favorably in the future.

Wednesday's Rundown

2009-06-10T07:54:00.000-07:00

Hope everyone enjoyed the draft coverage last night. We've got another doctor's appointment this afternoon, so I'll probably just have a post tonight highlighting the best or most interesting picks from today's portion of the draft and my thoughts on them. If I have time, I may even get around to a player profile (that I've been promising for weeks now). Until then, let's get on with all the news and notes from around the Astros minor league system (minus Corpus, since they were off yesterday):

Wesley Wright started for Round Rock on Tuesday but wasn't very good. He lasted just three innings, giving up three hits and three earned runs. He struck out four and walked three to pick up his first loss with the Express. I'm not sure if they're trying to stretch Wright out into a starter, or if this was just a way to give their rotation a day of rest. That happens from time to time in this system. It could be to get some extended work for the bullpen guys or, as I said, to just rest the rotation a little. Whatever the reason, I'll be interested to see if Wright gets another start.

None of the hitters distinguished themselves on Tuesday outside of third baseman Chris Johnson. The 24-year old was 3 for 4 with a double and a run scored. He's currently batting .382/.432/.618 with seven runs scored, four doubles and two triples this month, raising his season average to .305. His home run power still hasn't come back, but the Dell Diamond is the toughest park to hit homers in the Astros system. In case you were wondering, Dell Diamond has a park factor of .96 for home runs, while Corpus Christi is at 1.15, Lancaster is at 1.17 and Lexington is at 1.06.

Another interesting sidebar from Tuesday was that utility infielder Chad Spann reached base twice on errors and was starting at second to give Jason Smith the day off. The interesting thing is that only one other Express player has reached on an error this month (J.R. Towles). Brian Bogusevic was the only player to reach more than twice in the entire month of May. Wladimir Sutil leads the farm system by reaching base seven times on errors. It's not a significant stat that speaks to overall talent or anything. It's just the kind of little bits of data that can be fascinating about this game.

Apparently, the Lancaster game last night was suspended after a fuse broke in the light towers around the park. The JetHawks and Inland Empire 66's managed to get in two innings before it became too dark to play, at which point the grounds crew managed to get four of the six light towers back online, but not enough to continue the game. They'll play a doubleheader today starting at 4 p.m. (PST).

One thing I've failed to mention is that Lancaster added an infielder last week. Matt Weston is a utility infielder who played in the Independant Canadian League last season. The former University of Houston outfielder was drafted in the 12th round of the 2006 draft by the San Francisco Giants and this is his Age 24 season, though he will turn 25 on June 20th. In five games with Lancaster, Weston is 3 for 17 with a triple, a home run, two runs scored and four RBIs.

Leandro Cespedes was absolutely rocked in his start last week, giving up eight hits and eight runs in 1 1/3 innings. The 22-year old struck out one and walked one intentionally before handing the ball over to the bullpen. Jordan Powell and Jeff Icenogle combined to pitch 7 2/3 scoreless innings, as Powell gave up one hit in 3 2/3 innings while striking out two and walking one. Icenogle gave up six hits over four innings, striking out two and walking none. Cespedes started the game yesterday that was delayed, striking out six in two innings. There was no word in the game story whether he would try and pitch in either game today, though I doubt it.

Catcher Koby Clemens has been on a roll lately, so he should benefit even more from Castro's promotion to Corpus. In six games, the 22-year old is 7 for 17 with three walks, three doubles, two sacrifice flys, two runs scored, seven RBIs and four strikeouts. His .412/.455/.588 line is one of the best on the team and raised his season average to .295/.382/.451 with a 19/35 BB/K ratio in 144 plate appearances.

Speaking of Jason Castro, he finished his stint in Lancaster by going 9 for 22 in June with six runs scored, six RBIs, two doubles, one home run, seven walks and four strikeouts. Castro is batting .409/.533/.636 this month, with a BABiP of .444, so this success is probably short term. For the season, Castro's line of .311/.403/.515 is very encouraging and his BABiP of .354 is probably sustainable. It will be very interesting to see how he deals with the transition to Double-A ball and to a less hitter friendly ballpark.

Chris Hicks posted his fourth above-average start of the season last week, pitching five innings and allowing four hits and two earned runs. The 22-year old former Georgia Tech closer struck out five and walked three, bringing is K/9 rate up to 7.79 and his BB/9 rate to 3.26. That's a tad high in the walk department, but that's a plenty good strikeout rate, which in that goofy ballpark, is one of the best indicators of success at the next level. Hicks' defense hasn't been great either, as his season Defense Efficiency Ratio is sitting at .598, one of the lowest rates I've seen. His FIP is at 3.99, which seems a better fit for his talent level right now than his actual ERA (6.04).

The team leader in hits this month is T.J. Steele, who's finally back from a pair of injuries that have limited him to just 52 plate appearances this season. In June, the 22-year old is 10 for 26 with two doubles, eight runs scored, two RBIs, a walk, six strikeouts and has been successful on two of his three stolen base attempts. Steele's BB/K rate is a little worrisome right now, but he hasn't gotten very much time at all to get comfortable at the plate. Hopefully, this will trend downward as he gets more playing time.

Jack Tilghman picked up his second loss with Lancaster on Sunday, but his start wasn't terrible. Instead, Tilghman was the victim of bad defense. In four innings, he allowed five hits and six runs, but only two of those were earned. He also struck out four and walked two and faced a season-high 24 batters. His G/F ratio wasn't great at 4/5 but he only gave up two line drives and his Power/Finesse Ratio has consistently been around 1.50, one of the big reasons why his FIP sits at 2.26 this season and was at 2.70 for his last start. His Defense Efficiency Ratio isn't terrible at .733, but it could be better. The impressive thing about Tilghman at Lancaster is his K/9 rate is at 11.65, by far the highest among starters on the team and his BB/9 is a manageable 2.65.

Another Lancaster outfielder who's struggling right now is Jonathan Gaston. After being the Player of the Month for April and May, he's started off slow in June with a .241/.258/.586 average. His power has still been there, hitting three doubles, two triples and a home run but he's walked just once while striking out eight times in 31 plate appearances. His Adjusted OPS of .816 and his Runs Created total of 4.5 put him well behind many of the other players on the team and his weighted OBA of .241 is the second lowest among regulars this month.

Astros supplemental 3rd rounder is third baseman

2009-06-09T19:20:00.001-07:00

The Houston Astros drafted Jonathan Meyer with the 111th overall pick in the supplemental portion of the third round of the 2009 draft. The fourth high school player selected on the first day of the draft by Houston, the 18-year old is from Simi Valley High School in Simi Valley, California. Here's some video of Meyer in high school.

Meyer played shortstop in high school, but also caught games and was the team's closer. His defense is good, but profiles more as a third baseman as he progresses, which is why the Astros listed him as such when they drafted him. As I mentioned in the profile on Mier, the Houston farm system is pretty bare when it comes to infielders and third base is no exception. The only real prospect at the position is Chris Johnson and he's 24 and in Triple-A. Jhon Florentino, Marco Cabral and Ebert Rosario have serious flaws (no power, too old or no plate discipline) to view them as good prospects. Meyer changes that immediately.

His MLB.com scouting report shows some video of him at shortstop, but it's not really big enough to see well to form opinions. His bat raises some question marks on some scouting reports, but if he's solid defensively, I think the team will live with just getting average out of him. Plus, if he can add some strength to his 6-foot-1, 200 pound frame, he'll hit for more power than he does now. His arm is good enough to throw a 90 MPH fastball, so it should play well at the hot corner.

Meyer also scores high in the makeup department, something he showcases in this Q&A with Baseball Beginnings and with his switch to switch-hitting this spring. He's newly converted to switch hitting, so it may take him a while to find his groove. Just like Lance Berkman, he's more comfortable from his natural side (the right) than his new side, with a longer swing from the left side of the plate. The Astros couldn't get their third round pick signed last season, so we'll see if they can get Meyer in the fold as he's currently committed to Cal State-Fullerton.

Astros first 3rd round pick is outfielder

2009-06-09T19:19:00.001-07:00

The Houston Astros drafted Telvin Nash with the 100th overall pick in the third round of the 2009 draft. The 18-year old left fielder from Griffin High School in Griffin, Georgia just doesn't show up on many scouting reports. He's listed at 6-foot-1, 230 pounds and is every bit that imposing a player in his video on MLB.com. Nash is currently committed to Kennesaw State and is rumored to be a tough sign.

Nash has a swing that definitely can play to some significant power, and was rated as being the top prep power hitter in the state. His pre-swing stance is very busy, with some extra knee movement that could be eliminated. It works for him now, so I'm not one to advocate changing, but complicated swings can get out of whack easily. Going off of thirty seconds of video is dangerous, but there were a couple of times that his swing looked long, though it also was very smooth at times too. We'll see how he plays at the next level, but it looks like he's got plus power potential.

In the outfield, his arm looks like it will play alright, though it's telling that the Astros listed him as a left fielder. He moved pretty well around the bases, so he should be able to stay on the corners and his arm looked like it could be an asset in left. He also apparently played third base at times next to former first round pick shortstop Tim Beckham.

The MLB Network commentators, including Baseball America executive editor Jim Callis, didn't have much to say about Nash, as he doesn't seem to have many scouting reports. But, the point Callis made was that Bobby Heck must have good conviction in his scouts finding guys and not caring about the "consensus." They select who they think is worth the pick. So far, so good. Hopefully, Nash will continue that trend.

Astros use 2nd round pick on pitcher

2009-06-09T17:25:00.000-07:00

With the 69th overall pick in the second round of the 2009 draft, the Astros selected high school right-handed pitcher Tanner Bushue. The 17-year old is from South Central High School in Farina, Illinois. He signed with John A. Logan Community College, which shows that he can be signed fairly easily. Most people had him pegged as going in the first 10 rounds, but not higher than the fourth round, so expect him to be characterized as a bit of a reach. However, the MLB Network's draft expert Jonathan Mayo said he liked what the Astros were doing in not reaching for college guys who are close to the majors and instead taking upside guys like Bushue.

According to the Baseball America scouting report, Bushue is a 6-foot-4, 180 pound athlete who averaged over 18 points a game as a basketball player in high school. His video on MLB.com shows him touching 90 with his fastball, but it sitting in the high 80's right now. His 12-6 curveball also had a ton of downward break, which makes it a tough pitch to hit. The MLB Network guys suggested that he can have a plus fastball and curveball, which gives him a good shot at making the big leagues in some capacity.

His weaknesses right now are that he doesn't really have a lot of time on the mound to develop a baseball feel. This means his third and fourth pitches are weak right now, something he'll have to work on in the minors to stay a starter in the higher levels of the farm system. Currently, he throws a slider and a changeup but neither are good pitches at this point.

One trend that is starting to show about Astros scouting director Bobby Heck's drafts is that he likes athletic pitchers. That's how most of the scouting reports described Jordan Lyles, Ross Seaton and Brad Dydalewicz last season and what they say about Bushue now. It's also worth noting that Bushue's pitching mechanics appear to be very solid. In that (very) short video, his motion appeared pretty easy and his arm flies open vertical from the ground, meaning he doesn't have to torque his shoulder much in his delivery. That's one of the problems that Mark Prior had in his delivery, and while it's not a sure sign of injury, it's good to know this kid has solid mechanics early on.

If the Astros hold to form, they'll send Bushue to Rookie ball to throw about 50 innings this season before starting next year in Lexington. Bushue will no doubt benefit from having Mier behind him defensively and the two could move up through the system together.

Astros select shortstop Mier

2009-06-09T16:21:00.001-07:00

With the 21st pick in the first round of the 2009 draft, the Astros selected high school shortstop Jiovanni Mier out of Bonita High School in La Verne, California. Mier, 18, is listed at 6-foot-3, 170 pounds and has committed to Southern California. His brother Jessie is a catcher in the Dodgers organization. Here is some video of Mier's hitting and fielding.

All of the scouting reports rave about Mier's defense. He was rated the best high school defensive player by Baseball America and compared to Nomar Garciaparra by MLB.com. He profiles as a line drive hitter and isn't done developing physically. He's "wiry strong," according to his MLB scouting report. One thing that all the reports agree on is that he is as advanced a high school prospect at short as you will find and though he needs to polish a few things, he should be able to stick at the position.

His footwork and his relays both need work, but are definitely fixable. In the video, you can see he does have a quick release when getting the ball to second or trying to turn the double play. Mier also needs to work on his throws, as they can sometimes have too much movement on them and provide problems for first basemen.

The most consistent praise is given to his make-up. In this article, Baseball America goes in-depth on the shortstop, talking with him and his coach about how he deals with pressure. In this Q&A with the blog Baseball Beginnings, Mier talks about a wide variety of things and has a pretty mature approach to hitting. I like that he's aware of how he needs to hit to all fields and, though he acknowledges the doubters don't think he'll hit, he hasn't tried to yank a bunch of homers.

The Astros do not have much depth at shortstop in the minors right now. The starting shortstops in Lexington (Low A) are both international signings who are a ways away. Lancaster (High A) have Chris Jackson and Gabriel Suarez, one who was a mid-round draft pick last season and one who's played independant ball the past two years. The only legitimate prospect currently in the minors is Wladimir Sutil and, at 24, he's a little old for his level (Double-A). Suffice it to say there's no depth here. I'd imagine Mier will start out in Rookie ball and then be the everyday guy at Lexington in 2010.

There doesn't seem to be any signability issues with Mier, so the Astros should be able to get him for the slot price, but I'm a little concerned that as a Calfornia native, he may want to honor his commitment to USC and be their starting shortstop for the next three years.

Tuesday Brieflys

2009-06-09T11:15:00.000-07:00

A mixed bag of news in the latest Minor League Notebook from The Houston Chronicle. Jason Castro got the call-up to Double-A Corpus Christi last night, less than a year after being drafted out of Stanford. Other college-age prospects from last year's draft have made the jump, such as Texas first baseman Justin Smoak, and judging from Castro's performance so far this season, his transition should go smoothly. On the down side, Douglas Arguello, one of the pitchers Castro would have been catching, was placed on the 7-day DL this week with swelling in his elbow. Hopefully, this isn't a serious issue, but it bears watching. Anyways, let's get into all the news and notes from the Astros minor league system:

Brian Bogusevic went 2 for 4 with another double and an RBI in Monday's game against rehabbing Cubs pitcher Rich Harden. Bogey still leads the team with six June RBIs and four doubles. His slugging percentage is only topped by Lou Santangelo and Chris Johnson, though Santangelo has 23 fewer at-bats.

The two players manning first base for Round Rock, Mark Saccomanno and John Gall, are both in a June swoon. For Gall, his 5 for 30 start mirrors his May numbers and have been a big reason why his average has fallen to .235/.308/.358 on the season. Saccomanno is going through a 3 for 24 stretch to start the month, lowering his season average to .270/.306/.401.

Wladimir Sutil had a five game hitting streak broken on Sunday before getting two more hits on Monday. Sutil is 7 for 21 with 8 walks, five runs, two RBIs, one SB, and three strikeouts this month. His .333/.517/.429 line gives him the highest OBP on the team this month and is a big reason why he's been slotted into the leadoff spot the past few games. Sutil doesn't have as much power as Tommy Manzella, but he's been more consistent at the plate with a career line of .279/.345/.324.

Corpus starter Brad James started twice since I've talked about the Hooks. In his first start last week, James gave up four runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings while striking out a season-high five and walking three. His FIP of 3.01 was his lowest of the season and he gave up zero line drives. In the second start, James reversed those trends, walking five and striking out three in five innings of work. He allowed three hits and two earned runs but his FIP was at 8.20, his second-highest total of the season. James continues to pitch very inconsistently and unless his strikeout rate suddenly spikes, shows very little hope of making the majors.

Mitch Einertson also had a five game hitting streak broken up on Sunday. After suffering through an off month in May, Einertson has bounced back nicely in June, batting .333/.346/.458 with a home run and five RBIs. He's already brought his average up to .266 for the season and the home run he hit was his fifth this year.

Polin Trinidad rebounded from a horrific last start (his game score was 9), but was still just a shade under average. His quality start (six innings, two earned runs) was decent enough, but he only struck out four and allowed a home run. His FIP of 4.03 was a little above his season FIP of 3.98 and his batting average all0wed of .315 is too high to sustain any success. The one good thing about his perforamnce is he doesn't walk anyone. In 51 innings, Trinidad has walked six batters and has given up more home runs (7) than walks.

Collin DeLome finally broke his homerless drought dating back to last month by hitting a solo shot on Sunday. DeLome has had more time off recently as his May slump grew deeper, but the results have been solid since then. In 21 plate appearances, DeLome is hitting .263/.333/.526 with a home run and two doubles. The centerfielder has 11 home runs on the season, which leads the Hooks and is tied for the club lead with seven steals. Also helping his cause is the fact that he has already drawn two walks and struck out four times. In May, DeLome drew three walks in the entire month while striking out 28 times. If he improves that ratio, he'll be a good major league player.

Sergio Perez also pitched his second best start of the season, going six innings and allowing five hits and one earned run. He tied his season high with six strikeouts and walked two. His game score of 62 was only bested by his score of 69 in his fifth start of the season. Perez benefitted from three double plays and had his highest Defense Efficiency Ratio (.688) and FIP (2.70) in four starts.

I mention Drew Meyer every now and then, but at 27, he's really not a prospect. Still, he's hitting well this month, going 9 for 25 with two walks, two doubles, and five RBIs. Meyer plays an okay second base, but the lack of any other real prospects at the position highlight the reason why a guy like Meyer can end up with the Hooks. He's a solid organizational guy and would be a good fill-in at Round Rock if he's needed there.

The Corpus bullpen has been much stronger lately with the additions of Daniel Meszaros and Chai-Jen Lo. Teaming up with T.J. Burton, the team has a great bridge to win games, which is why they've won three of their last four. Meszaros has pitched in three games, throwing five innings and allowing four hits and one earned run. The 23-year old has also struck out four and walked none. In 27 innings, Meszaros has allowed only one home run and should continue his ascent up the system. Lo has also pitched in three games since coming off the DL last weekend. The 23-year old Taiwanese reliever has thrown three innings while allowing one hit and no earned runs. He's walked two and struck out three while hitting two batters. After being so dominant in Lancaster, Lo seems like he needs a little time to find his rhythm again.

I'll keep updating as the night goes on, but I'm going to post these thoughts right now so I can prepare a post about the Astros first round pick when it comes in a little bit. I thought LHP Matthew Purke made sense for them, but the Rangers just grabbed him. That means RHP Shelby Miller may fall a little, though I doubt he gets to 21. It doesn't really make sense to take another outfielder when our system is so lousy with them, so I'll be interested to see if they take Mier, the shortstop who's supposed to be the best pure defender in the draft.

The Big Pot of Leftovers

2009-06-08T10:01:00.000-07:00

So since I haven't blogged about the minors in almost a week, I thought I'd treat you to a gigantic post covering everything under the sun. In the past five days, we've had quite a bit to talk about, so this post will be my usual news & notes column while I plan on bringing out two different pitching profiles later today and will come back with a draft post tomorrow. There has been quite a bit going on recently, including a trip to the 7-day DL for 2008 supplemental first round pick Jay Austin. The 18-year old is the seventh Legends player currently on the DL and at least the 10th this season, which may explain why the team has been so inconsistent recently, and why Eric Suttle was added to the roster last week. So without further ado, here's all the news and notes from around the Astros minor leagues:

Starter Bud Norris bounced back from a sub-par start to have an above-average on last week. The 24-year old lasted six innings, allowing seven hits and one earned run while striking out four and walking three. Norris also allowed a home run for the third straight game and has also not allowed more than two line drives in his last three starts. The four strikeouts were the fewest he's had since his first start of the season and his FIP of 5.00 showed just how much his defense helped him out in this one.

Three hitters have 10 hits this month after the first week of June. The first is Reggie Abercrombie, who has settled into the leadoff spot nicely. The 28-year old still strikes out too much to be useful as an everyday player, but has put up a nice 10 for 27 run in the past week, with one walks, two doubles, three runs scored and seven strikeouts. He was also picked off twice, though, which hurts his value which is why his Runs Created is at 4.49.

Depending on how severe Felipe Paulino's groin injury is, the Astros may be looking for a starter to fill his rotation spot. One theory is that Russ Ortiz will be slotted in, but he's been so valuable as a long reliever, that scenario only makes sense if Paulino doesn't hit the DL. If he does, the team would be hard pressed to pass over Yorman Bazardo. The 24-year old didn't keep his 80 game score streak alive, having just a pedestrian game score of 61 last Friday. Bazardo (7-2) went seven innings and allowed eight hits and one earned run while striking out five and walking one. He gave up his first home run in five starts and also gave up a season-high eight line drives. His pitch count remains low, meaning he is very efficient with his pitches, but that can also get him into trouble like this past start. Bazardo had a G/F rato of 11/4, continuing his trend this season of being a groundball pitcher.

Another Express player with 10 hits this month is Brian Bogusevic. Hitting in the three hole, Bogey leads the team in RBIs this month with five and had two consecutive three-hit games this weekend. His .345/.367/.448 line puts him just above Abercrombie in terms of value, with one of the differences being Bogey was successful on his only stolen base attempt. Both players struck out and walked an equal number of times, though, which is a problem Bogusevic is going to have to overcome before he can be a decent big league player.

Lefthander Mark McLemore has also come off the DL recently and started two games thus far. His first start wasn't noteworthy but both charged him with losses. In five innings, McLemore gave up eight hits and three earned runs while striking out four. Another former Astros lefty, Wesley Wright, hasn't given up a run yet in 6 1/3 innings of work.

Tommy Manzella rounds out the troika of players with 10 hits for Round Rock. At 10 for 28 for the month, Manzella continues to raise his average higher and higher (.309 for the season). Of course, included in those 10 hits was a 4 for 5 day last week, which was the most hits by an Express player in quite a while. Manzella's power has never been his strong suit, but he does seem to be a good baserunner, as he leads the team with three triples this season. It's not all speed with him, though, as he has grounded into a team-high 10 double plays and only has two steals. Still, he's proven to be a very capable player and should get a look at being the everyday shortstop next season after Tejada leaves via free agency.

And this is how far we got today...I'll post this and follow up tomorrow with more.

We Apologize for the Brief Blackout

2009-06-05T12:29:00.000-07:00

Sorry the blog has been dark for two days now. I've been swamped at the real job lately and haven't had time to sufficiently analyze the comings and goings in the minors. I expect this may happen again next week, because my wife is expecting our first child on Thursday. I will have an extended Friday post up later today (possibly tonight) and we'll play the rest of the week by ear. Stay tuned!

Tuesday Brieflys

2009-06-02T11:49:00.000-07:00

I was getting ready to lead off with a comment about the Astros minors going for a clean sweep on Monday, but Round Rock had to go and mess everything up by losing to former Astros affiliate New Orleans. Oh well, can't win them all, I guess. As the Astros farm system has a combined winning percentage of .433, a clean sweep was asking a lot. Only Lexington has a winning record currently at 26-24 and based on Run Differential, Lexington is the only one who should have a winning record. Round Rock, in fact, should have less wins than it does now. Still, as we've seen in these notes columns over the past two months, there is talent in the system. Just not enough of it to win as a team. Onto all the news and notes from Monday:

I'm introducing a new feature to these recaps in The Gold Star Performance of the Day. It's a long, unwieldy name right now, but I assume we can just call it the Gold Star and you'll know what I'm talking about. I'm going to give it to one player each recap who stood out above the rest and deserves to be mentioned right away, instead of by level, as I do now. Our first Gold Star winner is Lexington's Ross Seaton. The 19-year old threw a three-hit shutout, striking out six and walking none to get his fifth victory this season. Seaton had a game score of 87, which was only beaten by May POM Yorman Bazardo's three-hitter over the weekend. The strikeout total was also Seaton's highest since his third start of the season and was the second straight outing where he didn't walk a batter. It also helped the Houston native that the Legends scored more than four runs for the third time this season to get him the victory. Seaton also righted a three-game losing streak and didn't allow a run for the third time this season. That deserves a Gold Star.

Round Rock's Jose Capellan turned in a great appearance out of the bullpen on Monday, striking out five batters in two innings of work. The 28-year old gave up two hits but only needed 33 pitches to get through his time on the mound. Capellan's ERA has ballooned with each ineffective start and maybe a move to the bullpen will bring him around to the form that saw him go 4-2 with a 4.40 ERA in 71 innings with Milwaukee in 2006.

The hitting was a mixed bag, as Tommy Manzella extended his hitting streak to nine games and Mark Saccomanno, Chris Johnson and Yordany Ramirez each had doubles. Still, the Express managed just seven hits in the game and scored one run off former Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco. Ramirez in particular seems to have put a horrible May behind him by going 2 for 4 in the leadoff spot.

The day he was named Pitcher of the Month by this blog, Douglas Arguello picked up his second victory of the season. However, it wasn't one of his better starts, as the lefty was picked up by his team scoring nine runs for him. Arguello lasted five innings, giving up four hits, two earned runs, striking out five and walking four. The 24-year old also gave up a home run and hit a batter. After giving up one home run in his first seven starts, Arguello has given up long balls in each of his last two appearances, though his line drive percentage was back under 20% in both starts and for the season (17.5%).

Four different Hooks had multiple hits, led by Mark Ori's 3 for 5 day. Jonathan Fixler, Collin DeLome and Felix Molina each had two hits and three RBIs while Fixler and Drew Locke each scored two runs. DeLome had his first multi-hit game in seven outings and his second in 13 games. The 22-year old hit .232/.281/.427 in May but did add three home runs, two triples and three doubles. His 28 strikeouts led the team and coupled with his three walks, were a big reason why he went 1 for 16 in his last five games in May.

I haven't written much about Ori this season, largely because he's a first baseman without much power. That kind of player doesn't usually make it to the big leagues, as there are enough guys who can hit the ball a mile but don't have a position that teams can shoehorn in at first. Ori does have a knack for getting hits but not walks, as he had just 5 walks in May and 12 for the season. The 25-year old is hitting .320/.372/.394 this season.

Jack Tilghman had a game score of 59 in his second start for Lancaster. The 22-year old threw five innings, allowing three hits and two earned runs and striking out six. It was his first start this season where he went at least five innings and only the second start of his professional career.

Shortstop Gabriel Suarez was the only Lancaster hitter with a multi-hit game on Monday, as the 24-year old went 2 for 4. Suarez is hitting .400 since signing with the JetHawks last week. Centerfielder T.J. Steele went 1 for 3 in the game, getting his first hit in 13 at-bats since coming off the disabled list.

None of the Lexington hitters stood out on Monday, except Brian Pelligrini, who hit his fourth home run since being demoted. Pelligrini has been great for the Lexington offense, but considering how badly he failed in his first stint in High-A ball, he may not have much of a future with the organization.

Two other roster notes: Ryan McKeller has been demoted to Corpus Christi to make room for Mark McLemore to come off the DL for Round Rock.... With T.J. Steele coming off the DL for Lancaster, outfielder Eric Suttle was demoted to Lexington. Suttle was 12 for 32 with two doubles, four runs scored, seven RBIs and five walks in 12 games with the JetHawks.