Based on last year's signings and slot prices and accounting for Commissioner Selig's across the board 10% decrease in slots because of the economy, here is an estimate as to what the Astros draft picks are slotted to sign for. Mind you, this information is not made public by MLB, so I'm getting my info from Baseball America.
1) Jiovanni Mier
2009 Recommendation - $1,332,000
2008 Signing - $1,480,000
2) Tanner Bushue
2009 Recommendation - $522,000
2008 Signing - $740,000
3) Telvin Nash
2009 Recommendation - $324,000
2008 Signing - $367,000
3s) Jonathan Meyer
2009 Recommendation - $274,500
2008 Signing - $120,000
The Astros went over slot to sign one of their draft picks from 2008, Ross Seaton, who almost doubled his slot price in the supplemental portion of the third round. Reports were that the Astros were also willing to go above slot to sign third rounder Chase Davidson, but couldn't come to an agreement by the August 15th deadline. In previous years, most notably 2007, the Astros have been very reluctant to sign players for more than their slotted price. In fact, before last season, the most high profile signing above slot price was Tomball HS LHP Troy Patton, who was drafted in the ninth round of the 2004 draft and signed for $550,000 when the slot for every round after the 5th was around $120,000.
Only two players drafted in the first round have signed contracts to this point. Fourth overall pick Tony Sanchez signed for $2,500,000 and 26th overall pick Eric Arnett signed for $1,197,000. Both are in line with the commissioner's recommendations for the draft slot. This story on astros.com suggests the team may have many of the picks signed by this weekend. As picks sign, I'll update the blog with their price and where they fit into the system.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Thursday's Thoughts
First of all, watch this video of MLB.com recapping Day Two of the draft for the Astros. Also, the story beside the video is a quick Q&A with shortstop and 5th round draft pick Brandon Wikoff. Some good stuff in there. I'll get to the writeups soon, but the wife is ready to have this baby at any time now, so if I post this half-finished, it's because I had to hit 'publish' before running to the hospital! I also wanted to talk about the Astros 32nd round draft pick, Greg Peavey.
The righthander from Oregon State has a scouting video up on MLB.com. His fastball seems to sit in the low 90's for the most part and his arm slot comes in at three quarters. His delivery is a little violent at the end, but he follows through nicely and is in a great fielding position by the end. That coaching staff up at Oregon State is very solid and obviously imparts good fundementals. It's also a fun little fact that Peavey played in the Little League World Series. I could see Peavey making a fast rise through the system. I don't know how much I'll get to write about the picks today, but if I do get a chance to go in-depth with any of the guys, I'll post later today. With that, let's get to all the news and notes from around the Astros farm system:
Since Round Rock was off on Wednesday, Polin Trinidad will lead off our notes, as he posted his best start of the season for Corpus Christi. In seven innings, Trinidad gave up only one hit, walking none and striking out five. He needed only 74 pitches to get through his innings and had a FIP of 1.77, his second lowest total of the season. Trinidad has had a rocky time lately, as this was the first time in five starts and the second time in seven starts that he's finished with a game score over 50. On Wednesday, Trinidad turned in a game score of 80 and picked up his fifth victory after the Hooks scored eight runs for him.
Jose Valverde also made his first appearance in his rehab stint with the team, striking out two and walking two in an inning of work. Valverde threw 24 pitches, 14 for strikes and got one flyball out. Here's hoping his rehab continues to go well.
Here is a draft video of Astros 35th rounder Jackson Hogue, a centerfielder out of Mississippi State. Hogue may play well in center field, though I couldn't tell how well he throws from the video. His arm action appears good and he didn't seem to effort the throws much, but his bat has me a little concerned. I guess when you get this late in the draft, you're not going to find perfect players. Hogue's swing is long, though, and his base is huge, meaning his legs don't get involved much and he probably won't show much power. If he's got some speed, he could develop into a nice player.
The Astros also drafted their first Aggie on Thursday in righthander Scott Migl. The 21-year old was born five years to the day after me, which is cool on it's own, but Migl has the potential to be a good bullpen guy for Houston. He was named a Freshman All-American in 2007 but has pitched less and less the past two years. Migl appeared in just two games for A&M this year, both starts and may have been injured in his second, as he got roughed up over 1 1/3 innings. He didn't appear in a game after March 18.
Houston's 37th round draft pick was Raul Rivera, a right-handed pitcher from Colegio San Vincente De Paul in Puerto Rico. Rivera's video shows that he can touch low 90's with his fastball and has a nice curveball and change. His delivery is very deliberate but he finishes in good position and his arm starts vertical to the ground. He doesn't seem to use his legs much in his delivery, so I'm sure the Astros think they can coach him up to do that, which will give him more life on his fastball. That's if he'll agree to sign.
To make room for Jason Castro, the Astros demoted Jonathan Fixler to Lancaster. They also seem to have released Jordan Comadena from any roster, which isn't surprising, since he hasn't gotten much playing time in the past month. Castro, in his first game with Corpus, went 1 for 4 with a run scored. He also helped the staff throw a three-hitter, so hopefully, he can help out that pitching staff.
Houston's 39th round pick, Rory Young, has a video here. Young is a high school kid from British Columbia and has great breaking stuff. His curveball dipped down to 62 at one point and his delivery seems pretty smooth. He certainly has the body frame to be a prototypical pitcher, but he didn't show much speed on his fastball, which is why he fell all this way. Maybe with a tweak to his delivery or as he matures, he can pick up some speed on his heater. Until then, we shall see.
Collin DeLome continued to hit well on Wednesday, going 2 for 4 with a double, a home run, a run scored and two RBIs. The 22-year old hit his 12th home run of the season and is now batting over .300 in June. DeLome still isn't walking much, but he also didn't strike out last night and only has four this month.
Jimmy Van Ostrand also hit a home run last night, but it was his second hit of the month as his average plummeted to .105/.227/.263. That's not good no matter who you are and I'll be surprised if the Astros keep him in Corpus for too much longer, as his season averages of .262/.312/.524 have been plummeting fast.
Lancaster finished the suspended game and played the second, but neither box scores were posted. As soon as they are, I'll updated and post about their results.
The righthander from Oregon State has a scouting video up on MLB.com. His fastball seems to sit in the low 90's for the most part and his arm slot comes in at three quarters. His delivery is a little violent at the end, but he follows through nicely and is in a great fielding position by the end. That coaching staff up at Oregon State is very solid and obviously imparts good fundementals. It's also a fun little fact that Peavey played in the Little League World Series. I could see Peavey making a fast rise through the system. I don't know how much I'll get to write about the picks today, but if I do get a chance to go in-depth with any of the guys, I'll post later today. With that, let's get to all the news and notes from around the Astros farm system:
Since Round Rock was off on Wednesday, Polin Trinidad will lead off our notes, as he posted his best start of the season for Corpus Christi. In seven innings, Trinidad gave up only one hit, walking none and striking out five. He needed only 74 pitches to get through his innings and had a FIP of 1.77, his second lowest total of the season. Trinidad has had a rocky time lately, as this was the first time in five starts and the second time in seven starts that he's finished with a game score over 50. On Wednesday, Trinidad turned in a game score of 80 and picked up his fifth victory after the Hooks scored eight runs for him.
Jose Valverde also made his first appearance in his rehab stint with the team, striking out two and walking two in an inning of work. Valverde threw 24 pitches, 14 for strikes and got one flyball out. Here's hoping his rehab continues to go well.
Here is a draft video of Astros 35th rounder Jackson Hogue, a centerfielder out of Mississippi State. Hogue may play well in center field, though I couldn't tell how well he throws from the video. His arm action appears good and he didn't seem to effort the throws much, but his bat has me a little concerned. I guess when you get this late in the draft, you're not going to find perfect players. Hogue's swing is long, though, and his base is huge, meaning his legs don't get involved much and he probably won't show much power. If he's got some speed, he could develop into a nice player.
The Astros also drafted their first Aggie on Thursday in righthander Scott Migl. The 21-year old was born five years to the day after me, which is cool on it's own, but Migl has the potential to be a good bullpen guy for Houston. He was named a Freshman All-American in 2007 but has pitched less and less the past two years. Migl appeared in just two games for A&M this year, both starts and may have been injured in his second, as he got roughed up over 1 1/3 innings. He didn't appear in a game after March 18.
Houston's 37th round draft pick was Raul Rivera, a right-handed pitcher from Colegio San Vincente De Paul in Puerto Rico. Rivera's video shows that he can touch low 90's with his fastball and has a nice curveball and change. His delivery is very deliberate but he finishes in good position and his arm starts vertical to the ground. He doesn't seem to use his legs much in his delivery, so I'm sure the Astros think they can coach him up to do that, which will give him more life on his fastball. That's if he'll agree to sign.
To make room for Jason Castro, the Astros demoted Jonathan Fixler to Lancaster. They also seem to have released Jordan Comadena from any roster, which isn't surprising, since he hasn't gotten much playing time in the past month. Castro, in his first game with Corpus, went 1 for 4 with a run scored. He also helped the staff throw a three-hitter, so hopefully, he can help out that pitching staff.
Houston's 39th round pick, Rory Young, has a video here. Young is a high school kid from British Columbia and has great breaking stuff. His curveball dipped down to 62 at one point and his delivery seems pretty smooth. He certainly has the body frame to be a prototypical pitcher, but he didn't show much speed on his fastball, which is why he fell all this way. Maybe with a tweak to his delivery or as he matures, he can pick up some speed on his heater. Until then, we shall see.
Collin DeLome continued to hit well on Wednesday, going 2 for 4 with a double, a home run, a run scored and two RBIs. The 22-year old hit his 12th home run of the season and is now batting over .300 in June. DeLome still isn't walking much, but he also didn't strike out last night and only has four this month.
Jimmy Van Ostrand also hit a home run last night, but it was his second hit of the month as his average plummeted to .105/.227/.263. That's not good no matter who you are and I'll be surprised if the Astros keep him in Corpus for too much longer, as his season averages of .262/.312/.524 have been plummeting fast.
Lancaster finished the suspended game and played the second, but neither box scores were posted. As soon as they are, I'll updated and post about their results.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Astros Draft Day Two
Here is a roundup of the Astros draft picks today and links to video of them when available:
(Name, Position, School, Height, Weight, Age)
4) B.J. Hyatt (RHP, South Carolina Sumter, 6-4, 205, 20) Notes: Here are his numbers from last season in college -32 1/3 innings, 7.24 ERA, 3-0 record with 3 saves, .273 BAA, 1.61 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 5.28 BB/9. This is at a junior college, so I'm not sure what to make of those stats, but the Astros must project his arm to be something special, because his control is nowhere near ready for pro ball. He'll get rocked if he walks five a game at the next level, and I'm not sure if the Astros project him as a reliever or a starter. With his strikeout totals, he might be an effective late inning reliever, if he can avoid giving out free passes.
5) Brandon Wikoff (SS, Illinois-Champagne, 5-9, 170, 21) Notes: I really liked what I saw of Wikoff on the videos. As incredulous as I was with their fourth round selection, this one makes sense. Wikoff doesn't look like he has much power, but he's got a short, quick swing from the left side and has good speed around the bases. In the video, he's clocked going home to first in 3.90 seconds, which is plenty playable at the next level. His hands also looked good in the warmups that were filmed, making quick relays and solid throws. He didn't look as smooth in the field as Mier, but he'll be a solid prospect in a system lacking middle infielders.
6) Enrique Hernandez (SS, American Military Academy HS, 5-11, 170, 17) Notes: This is a kid who may mature to be more than he is now, but at the moment, he's a project. At short, his arm looked strained and his footwork needs work. At the plate, his swing is choppy but quick but in the at-bats we got to see, he looked like he needed to work on his plate discipline. Baseball America compared him to Luis Matos but with a better bat, and listed him as a second baseman. With his arm strength, that's probably where he'll end up in the long term.
7) Dallas Kouchel (LHP, Arkansas, 6-2, 180, 21) Notes: He is a guy who's a classic Moneyball pick. I don't mean his statistics were favorable, but that he was drafted on his performance rather than his measurables. At 6-foot-2 and 180, he doesn't have the prototypical frame, but he has anchored the Arkansas staff for three seasons and was an all-star in the Cape Cod League last summer. He doesn't throw hard, but with his great changeup, he can be an effective change of pace guy. The sink on his fastball will also lend itself to ground balls, which will help out a soft tossing lefty.
8) Brandt Walker (RHP, Stanford, 6-3, 185, 21) Notes: I'm betting the same scouts who were following Jason Castro last season got a look at Walker a year early. In 12 games, the righty had a 7.71 ERA and only had 27 appearances in his three years with the Cardinal. This is a case of statistics being misleading as Walker had more innings pitched (37 1/3) than hits allowed (36) but still had an ERA over 6. He also had 29 strikeouts in those 37 1/3 innings, meaning his arm is good and rested. We shall see.
9) Ben Orloff (SS, UC-Irvine, 5-11, 170, 22) Notes: Orloff's arm also appeared a little stretched in the short video of him taking grounders, but he should play somewhere in the infield. His swing is short, pulling his hands through quickly, so he shouldn't have trouble catching up to inside fastballs. He's also made 215 starts at shortstop, so he's got some experience at the position. He was second on the team in batting average and led the team in hits (91) and runs scored (62). Again, he just adds to the team's depth up the middle.
10) Erik Castro (3B, San Diego State, 6-4, 200, 21) Notes: Castro was named all-conference and started at four different positions last year. He was second on the team in home runs with 10 and was 55th in the nation in walks. I'm also not sure whether he is any relation to Astros 2008 first round pick Jason Castro. I'll check on that some more.
11) David Williams (C, Crowder College, 6-0, 190, 20) Notes: Apparently, he goes by Bubby. Easily the coolest name the Astros have drafted in the past two years (sorry, T.J. Steele). A draft eligible sophomore, Williams caught and played on the infield this season. I've got nothing more on him other than that.
12) Geoffrey Thomas (RHP, Stephenson, Ga. HS, 6-0, 187, 17) Notes: Has trouble controlling his arm slot. In the video, he threw in the high 80's consistently, but didn't have a ton of break on his curveball. Granted, they only showed him throw the curve once, so I don't want to make too many conclusions. His delivery also looks more violent than smooth, which means he may have a bigger chance for injury long term.
13) Jake Goebbert (OF, Northwestern, 6-0, 205, 21) Notes: Goebbert follows the Northwestern tradition of current Corpus first baseman Mark Ori. His season was cut short due to an injury, but he still managed to bat .280 with 10 doubles and four home runs in 30 games. He showed more power in his sophomore season and hopefully will bounce back from his injury (whatever that was).
14) David Berner (LHP, San Jose St., 6-2, 205, 21) Notes: Now here is a kid I really like. This press release by San Jose State is full of some good quotes from the coach and Berner. He's an older guy who can probably advance quickly. Pitching in the WAC, he also had to play at altitude some, so he's probably used to hitter-friendly environs, meaning he won't be phased by Lancaster's band box. He also led his conference in ERA, opposing batting average and strikeouts. The latter two tell me that the former was no fluke or product of excellent defense. I have high hopes for this one. Lefties that strike people out don't grow on trees.
15) Ryan Humphrey (CF, St. Louis CC Meramac, 6-0, 195, 21)
16) Ronald Sanchez (1B, Manuela Toro Morice HS, Caguas, Puerto Rico, 5-10, 17) Notes: Played catcher in high school and will switch to first base in the minors. He has a good clean swing and loads up well, which means he should show some power at the next level. He's also the third player the Astros have drafted out of Puerto Rico in the last two years.
17) Justin Harper (RHP, Oklahoma City University, 6-3, 210, 21) Notes: The first NAIA player drafted by the Astros this year, Harper didn't have the best ERA in the world but struck out 86 in 71 innings and only gave up 63 hits. His delivery almost drops down side arm at times, but his follow through is solid and his leg kick looks powerful. It's obvious that he's a power guy and he doesn't seem to land violently on his front leg, which can lead to shoulder problems.
18) J.B. MacDonald (RHP, Boston College, 6-2, 190, 22) Notes: After playing sparingly his first three years at BC, MacDonald started fifteen games this season, throwing 96 2/3 innings and allowing 96 hits. The senior also struck out 71 and walked 32 while giving up a team-high 13 home runs. He got to work with a top-notch defensive catcher, so the Astros must've seen something they liked about him. His track record isn't great, however, and he doesn't throw enough strikes for my tastes. Still, he's a guy who can grow.
19) Brian Kemp (CF, St. John's University, 5-9, 180, 21) Notes: In the few swings he took on video, it appeared that Kemp transfers a little too much weight onto his front foot, which will limit his power potential at the next level, but has a nice swing otherwise. He also has an absolute cannon for an arm in the outfield and, if he has the range to play center, should be a potent defensive weapon.
20) Julio Martinez (RF, Nova Southeastern University, 6-3, 194, 21) Notes: Now this kid shows some power potential. Unlike Kemp, Martinez loads up for the ball well and has a natural uppercut to his swing that will help his power. He was timed at 4.40 down to first on a bunt attempt, which is pretty good for a righty. We didn't get to see him field, but he should have an arm if they listed him in right field. I'm interested in why he lasted so long. Maybe teams don't trust the competition he played against.
21) Barry Butera (2B, Boston College, 6-0, 180, 22) Notes: Butera played three different positions for Boston College last season (RF, SS, 2B) but was listed as a pure second baseman by the Astros. He has definite speed, as he led the ACC in triples (4) and a knack for getting on base, with a .400 OBP and six multi-hit games in his last nine starts. Definitely more of an organizational guy than a legitimate prospect, but give him some time in the minors to develop.
22) Mark Jones (RHP, Manheim Township, Pa. HS, 6-7, 205, 18)
23) Robert Donovan (RHP, Stetson University, 6-5, 220, 21) Notes: Donovan is an effort thrower. His whole delivery screams 'I'm throwing as hard as I can.' That's not necessarily a bad thing, but you hope it doesn't lead to injury risk. The body tends not to like jarring activities. Other than that, his delivery is clean. The ball starts forward vertical to the ground, he throws almost completely over the top and he lands pretty balanced on his feet. He's got a tall and wiry frame, one of the biggest pitchers the Astros have drafted so far this year. He'll be an interesting guy to watch.
24) Mike Modica (LHP, George Mason, 6-0, 175, 22) Notes: The Oswalt-sized lefty has an impressive resume. He was named second team All-America and selected as the South Jersey Coaches Pitcher of the Year. He started more games than anyone in George Mason history and is second on the all-time strikeout, wins and innings pitched lists. All that is great and shows he can be productive. What I worry about is all those innings already on his arm. Will he stay healthy? Is he good enough to strike guys out at the next level? We'll have to see.
25) Nicholas Stanley (1B, Florida Southern, 6-2, 195, 22) Notes: Stanley may be a case of a guy who transfers off the radar of some scouts. He played at NC State last season before transferring to Florida Southern and starting all 57 games. He led the team with 11 home runs and 59 RBIs. It's tough to say how his power will translate in the pros, but he's the kind of guy the Astros have been collecting for the past few years: older first baseman with a little pop who can field well enough to play in the outfield.
26) Matthew Watson (1B, Pompano Beach, ME HS, 6-0, 200, 18)
27) Aaron Bray (3B, UNC Charlotte, 6-0, 180, 21) Notes: Another try-hard guy, Bray finished his career at Charlotte with over 200 hits and 200 runs scored. He is the team's all-time hits leader with 293 and is only the second player in school history to top 200 in each category. He doesn't have a lot of power with just 12 extra-base hits this season, but he did bat .339, so he'll at least be a consistent hitter. He only struck out 22 times in 189 innings, so he's got a pretty good batting eye. Still, this is an organizational player who may move up over time and surprise some people if he develops a little pop.
28) Eric Anderson (RHP, Mountain Vista, Colo. HS, 6-4, 18)
29) Garen Wright (CF, Putnam City, Okla. HS, 6-3, 230, 18)
30) Brandon Petite (RHP, Vauxhall HS, Edmonton, Canada, 6-3, 210, 18) Notes: Petite is a big righthander from Canada who throws from a high three-quarters slot. Right now, he's still more projectability than performance, as he's still pitching in the high 80's but should gain speed as he matures. His mechanics need work, as he falls off to the first base side pretty badly and doesn't get into a good fielding position. I'm not sure if he's committed anywhere or how easy it will be to sign him, but he's a guy that projects favorably in the future.
(Name, Position, School, Height, Weight, Age)
4) B.J. Hyatt (RHP, South Carolina Sumter, 6-4, 205, 20) Notes: Here are his numbers from last season in college -32 1/3 innings, 7.24 ERA, 3-0 record with 3 saves, .273 BAA, 1.61 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 5.28 BB/9. This is at a junior college, so I'm not sure what to make of those stats, but the Astros must project his arm to be something special, because his control is nowhere near ready for pro ball. He'll get rocked if he walks five a game at the next level, and I'm not sure if the Astros project him as a reliever or a starter. With his strikeout totals, he might be an effective late inning reliever, if he can avoid giving out free passes.
5) Brandon Wikoff (SS, Illinois-Champagne, 5-9, 170, 21) Notes: I really liked what I saw of Wikoff on the videos. As incredulous as I was with their fourth round selection, this one makes sense. Wikoff doesn't look like he has much power, but he's got a short, quick swing from the left side and has good speed around the bases. In the video, he's clocked going home to first in 3.90 seconds, which is plenty playable at the next level. His hands also looked good in the warmups that were filmed, making quick relays and solid throws. He didn't look as smooth in the field as Mier, but he'll be a solid prospect in a system lacking middle infielders.
6) Enrique Hernandez (SS, American Military Academy HS, 5-11, 170, 17) Notes: This is a kid who may mature to be more than he is now, but at the moment, he's a project. At short, his arm looked strained and his footwork needs work. At the plate, his swing is choppy but quick but in the at-bats we got to see, he looked like he needed to work on his plate discipline. Baseball America compared him to Luis Matos but with a better bat, and listed him as a second baseman. With his arm strength, that's probably where he'll end up in the long term.
7) Dallas Kouchel (LHP, Arkansas, 6-2, 180, 21) Notes: He is a guy who's a classic Moneyball pick. I don't mean his statistics were favorable, but that he was drafted on his performance rather than his measurables. At 6-foot-2 and 180, he doesn't have the prototypical frame, but he has anchored the Arkansas staff for three seasons and was an all-star in the Cape Cod League last summer. He doesn't throw hard, but with his great changeup, he can be an effective change of pace guy. The sink on his fastball will also lend itself to ground balls, which will help out a soft tossing lefty.
8) Brandt Walker (RHP, Stanford, 6-3, 185, 21) Notes: I'm betting the same scouts who were following Jason Castro last season got a look at Walker a year early. In 12 games, the righty had a 7.71 ERA and only had 27 appearances in his three years with the Cardinal. This is a case of statistics being misleading as Walker had more innings pitched (37 1/3) than hits allowed (36) but still had an ERA over 6. He also had 29 strikeouts in those 37 1/3 innings, meaning his arm is good and rested. We shall see.
9) Ben Orloff (SS, UC-Irvine, 5-11, 170, 22) Notes: Orloff's arm also appeared a little stretched in the short video of him taking grounders, but he should play somewhere in the infield. His swing is short, pulling his hands through quickly, so he shouldn't have trouble catching up to inside fastballs. He's also made 215 starts at shortstop, so he's got some experience at the position. He was second on the team in batting average and led the team in hits (91) and runs scored (62). Again, he just adds to the team's depth up the middle.
10) Erik Castro (3B, San Diego State, 6-4, 200, 21) Notes: Castro was named all-conference and started at four different positions last year. He was second on the team in home runs with 10 and was 55th in the nation in walks. I'm also not sure whether he is any relation to Astros 2008 first round pick Jason Castro. I'll check on that some more.
11) David Williams (C, Crowder College, 6-0, 190, 20) Notes: Apparently, he goes by Bubby. Easily the coolest name the Astros have drafted in the past two years (sorry, T.J. Steele). A draft eligible sophomore, Williams caught and played on the infield this season. I've got nothing more on him other than that.
12) Geoffrey Thomas (RHP, Stephenson, Ga. HS, 6-0, 187, 17) Notes: Has trouble controlling his arm slot. In the video, he threw in the high 80's consistently, but didn't have a ton of break on his curveball. Granted, they only showed him throw the curve once, so I don't want to make too many conclusions. His delivery also looks more violent than smooth, which means he may have a bigger chance for injury long term.
13) Jake Goebbert (OF, Northwestern, 6-0, 205, 21) Notes: Goebbert follows the Northwestern tradition of current Corpus first baseman Mark Ori. His season was cut short due to an injury, but he still managed to bat .280 with 10 doubles and four home runs in 30 games. He showed more power in his sophomore season and hopefully will bounce back from his injury (whatever that was).
14) David Berner (LHP, San Jose St., 6-2, 205, 21) Notes: Now here is a kid I really like. This press release by San Jose State is full of some good quotes from the coach and Berner. He's an older guy who can probably advance quickly. Pitching in the WAC, he also had to play at altitude some, so he's probably used to hitter-friendly environs, meaning he won't be phased by Lancaster's band box. He also led his conference in ERA, opposing batting average and strikeouts. The latter two tell me that the former was no fluke or product of excellent defense. I have high hopes for this one. Lefties that strike people out don't grow on trees.
15) Ryan Humphrey (CF, St. Louis CC Meramac, 6-0, 195, 21)
16) Ronald Sanchez (1B, Manuela Toro Morice HS, Caguas, Puerto Rico, 5-10, 17) Notes: Played catcher in high school and will switch to first base in the minors. He has a good clean swing and loads up well, which means he should show some power at the next level. He's also the third player the Astros have drafted out of Puerto Rico in the last two years.
17) Justin Harper (RHP, Oklahoma City University, 6-3, 210, 21) Notes: The first NAIA player drafted by the Astros this year, Harper didn't have the best ERA in the world but struck out 86 in 71 innings and only gave up 63 hits. His delivery almost drops down side arm at times, but his follow through is solid and his leg kick looks powerful. It's obvious that he's a power guy and he doesn't seem to land violently on his front leg, which can lead to shoulder problems.
18) J.B. MacDonald (RHP, Boston College, 6-2, 190, 22) Notes: After playing sparingly his first three years at BC, MacDonald started fifteen games this season, throwing 96 2/3 innings and allowing 96 hits. The senior also struck out 71 and walked 32 while giving up a team-high 13 home runs. He got to work with a top-notch defensive catcher, so the Astros must've seen something they liked about him. His track record isn't great, however, and he doesn't throw enough strikes for my tastes. Still, he's a guy who can grow.
19) Brian Kemp (CF, St. John's University, 5-9, 180, 21) Notes: In the few swings he took on video, it appeared that Kemp transfers a little too much weight onto his front foot, which will limit his power potential at the next level, but has a nice swing otherwise. He also has an absolute cannon for an arm in the outfield and, if he has the range to play center, should be a potent defensive weapon.
20) Julio Martinez (RF, Nova Southeastern University, 6-3, 194, 21) Notes: Now this kid shows some power potential. Unlike Kemp, Martinez loads up for the ball well and has a natural uppercut to his swing that will help his power. He was timed at 4.40 down to first on a bunt attempt, which is pretty good for a righty. We didn't get to see him field, but he should have an arm if they listed him in right field. I'm interested in why he lasted so long. Maybe teams don't trust the competition he played against.
21) Barry Butera (2B, Boston College, 6-0, 180, 22) Notes: Butera played three different positions for Boston College last season (RF, SS, 2B) but was listed as a pure second baseman by the Astros. He has definite speed, as he led the ACC in triples (4) and a knack for getting on base, with a .400 OBP and six multi-hit games in his last nine starts. Definitely more of an organizational guy than a legitimate prospect, but give him some time in the minors to develop.
22) Mark Jones (RHP, Manheim Township, Pa. HS, 6-7, 205, 18)
23) Robert Donovan (RHP, Stetson University, 6-5, 220, 21) Notes: Donovan is an effort thrower. His whole delivery screams 'I'm throwing as hard as I can.' That's not necessarily a bad thing, but you hope it doesn't lead to injury risk. The body tends not to like jarring activities. Other than that, his delivery is clean. The ball starts forward vertical to the ground, he throws almost completely over the top and he lands pretty balanced on his feet. He's got a tall and wiry frame, one of the biggest pitchers the Astros have drafted so far this year. He'll be an interesting guy to watch.
24) Mike Modica (LHP, George Mason, 6-0, 175, 22) Notes: The Oswalt-sized lefty has an impressive resume. He was named second team All-America and selected as the South Jersey Coaches Pitcher of the Year. He started more games than anyone in George Mason history and is second on the all-time strikeout, wins and innings pitched lists. All that is great and shows he can be productive. What I worry about is all those innings already on his arm. Will he stay healthy? Is he good enough to strike guys out at the next level? We'll have to see.
25) Nicholas Stanley (1B, Florida Southern, 6-2, 195, 22) Notes: Stanley may be a case of a guy who transfers off the radar of some scouts. He played at NC State last season before transferring to Florida Southern and starting all 57 games. He led the team with 11 home runs and 59 RBIs. It's tough to say how his power will translate in the pros, but he's the kind of guy the Astros have been collecting for the past few years: older first baseman with a little pop who can field well enough to play in the outfield.
26) Matthew Watson (1B, Pompano Beach, ME HS, 6-0, 200, 18)
27) Aaron Bray (3B, UNC Charlotte, 6-0, 180, 21) Notes: Another try-hard guy, Bray finished his career at Charlotte with over 200 hits and 200 runs scored. He is the team's all-time hits leader with 293 and is only the second player in school history to top 200 in each category. He doesn't have a lot of power with just 12 extra-base hits this season, but he did bat .339, so he'll at least be a consistent hitter. He only struck out 22 times in 189 innings, so he's got a pretty good batting eye. Still, this is an organizational player who may move up over time and surprise some people if he develops a little pop.
28) Eric Anderson (RHP, Mountain Vista, Colo. HS, 6-4, 18)
29) Garen Wright (CF, Putnam City, Okla. HS, 6-3, 230, 18)
30) Brandon Petite (RHP, Vauxhall HS, Edmonton, Canada, 6-3, 210, 18) Notes: Petite is a big righthander from Canada who throws from a high three-quarters slot. Right now, he's still more projectability than performance, as he's still pitching in the high 80's but should gain speed as he matures. His mechanics need work, as he falls off to the first base side pretty badly and doesn't get into a good fielding position. I'm not sure if he's committed anywhere or how easy it will be to sign him, but he's a guy that projects favorably in the future.
Wednesday's Rundown
Hope everyone enjoyed the draft coverage last night. We've got another doctor's appointment this afternoon, so I'll probably just have a post tonight highlighting the best or most interesting picks from today's portion of the draft and my thoughts on them. If I have time, I may even get around to a player profile (that I've been promising for weeks now). Until then, let's get on with all the news and notes from around the Astros minor league system (minus Corpus, since they were off yesterday):
Wesley Wright started for Round Rock on Tuesday but wasn't very good. He lasted just three innings, giving up three hits and three earned runs. He struck out four and walked three to pick up his first loss with the Express. I'm not sure if they're trying to stretch Wright out into a starter, or if this was just a way to give their rotation a day of rest. That happens from time to time in this system. It could be to get some extended work for the bullpen guys or, as I said, to just rest the rotation a little. Whatever the reason, I'll be interested to see if Wright gets another start.
None of the hitters distinguished themselves on Tuesday outside of third baseman Chris Johnson. The 24-year old was 3 for 4 with a double and a run scored. He's currently batting .382/.432/.618 with seven runs scored, four doubles and two triples this month, raising his season average to .305. His home run power still hasn't come back, but the Dell Diamond is the toughest park to hit homers in the Astros system. In case you were wondering, Dell Diamond has a park factor of .96 for home runs, while Corpus Christi is at 1.15, Lancaster is at 1.17 and Lexington is at 1.06.
Another interesting sidebar from Tuesday was that utility infielder Chad Spann reached base twice on errors and was starting at second to give Jason Smith the day off. The interesting thing is that only one other Express player has reached on an error this month (J.R. Towles). Brian Bogusevic was the only player to reach more than twice in the entire month of May. Wladimir Sutil leads the farm system by reaching base seven times on errors. It's not a significant stat that speaks to overall talent or anything. It's just the kind of little bits of data that can be fascinating about this game.
Apparently, the Lancaster game last night was suspended after a fuse broke in the light towers around the park. The JetHawks and Inland Empire 66's managed to get in two innings before it became too dark to play, at which point the grounds crew managed to get four of the six light towers back online, but not enough to continue the game. They'll play a doubleheader today starting at 4 p.m. (PST).
One thing I've failed to mention is that Lancaster added an infielder last week. Matt Weston is a utility infielder who played in the Independant Canadian League last season. The former University of Houston outfielder was drafted in the 12th round of the 2006 draft by the San Francisco Giants and this is his Age 24 season, though he will turn 25 on June 20th. In five games with Lancaster, Weston is 3 for 17 with a triple, a home run, two runs scored and four RBIs.
Leandro Cespedes was absolutely rocked in his start last week, giving up eight hits and eight runs in 1 1/3 innings. The 22-year old struck out one and walked one intentionally before handing the ball over to the bullpen. Jordan Powell and Jeff Icenogle combined to pitch 7 2/3 scoreless innings, as Powell gave up one hit in 3 2/3 innings while striking out two and walking one. Icenogle gave up six hits over four innings, striking out two and walking none. Cespedes started the game yesterday that was delayed, striking out six in two innings. There was no word in the game story whether he would try and pitch in either game today, though I doubt it.
Catcher Koby Clemens has been on a roll lately, so he should benefit even more from Castro's promotion to Corpus. In six games, the 22-year old is 7 for 17 with three walks, three doubles, two sacrifice flys, two runs scored, seven RBIs and four strikeouts. His .412/.455/.588 line is one of the best on the team and raised his season average to .295/.382/.451 with a 19/35 BB/K ratio in 144 plate appearances.
Speaking of Jason Castro, he finished his stint in Lancaster by going 9 for 22 in June with six runs scored, six RBIs, two doubles, one home run, seven walks and four strikeouts. Castro is batting .409/.533/.636 this month, with a BABiP of .444, so this success is probably short term. For the season, Castro's line of .311/.403/.515 is very encouraging and his BABiP of .354 is probably sustainable. It will be very interesting to see how he deals with the transition to Double-A ball and to a less hitter friendly ballpark.
Chris Hicks posted his fourth above-average start of the season last week, pitching five innings and allowing four hits and two earned runs. The 22-year old former Georgia Tech closer struck out five and walked three, bringing is K/9 rate up to 7.79 and his BB/9 rate to 3.26. That's a tad high in the walk department, but that's a plenty good strikeout rate, which in that goofy ballpark, is one of the best indicators of success at the next level. Hicks' defense hasn't been great either, as his season Defense Efficiency Ratio is sitting at .598, one of the lowest rates I've seen. His FIP is at 3.99, which seems a better fit for his talent level right now than his actual ERA (6.04).
The team leader in hits this month is T.J. Steele, who's finally back from a pair of injuries that have limited him to just 52 plate appearances this season. In June, the 22-year old is 10 for 26 with two doubles, eight runs scored, two RBIs, a walk, six strikeouts and has been successful on two of his three stolen base attempts. Steele's BB/K rate is a little worrisome right now, but he hasn't gotten very much time at all to get comfortable at the plate. Hopefully, this will trend downward as he gets more playing time.
Jack Tilghman picked up his second loss with Lancaster on Sunday, but his start wasn't terrible. Instead, Tilghman was the victim of bad defense. In four innings, he allowed five hits and six runs, but only two of those were earned. He also struck out four and walked two and faced a season-high 24 batters. His G/F ratio wasn't great at 4/5 but he only gave up two line drives and his Power/Finesse Ratio has consistently been around 1.50, one of the big reasons why his FIP sits at 2.26 this season and was at 2.70 for his last start. His Defense Efficiency Ratio isn't terrible at .733, but it could be better. The impressive thing about Tilghman at Lancaster is his K/9 rate is at 11.65, by far the highest among starters on the team and his BB/9 is a manageable 2.65.
Another Lancaster outfielder who's struggling right now is Jonathan Gaston. After being the Player of the Month for April and May, he's started off slow in June with a .241/.258/.586 average. His power has still been there, hitting three doubles, two triples and a home run but he's walked just once while striking out eight times in 31 plate appearances. His Adjusted OPS of .816 and his Runs Created total of 4.5 put him well behind many of the other players on the team and his weighted OBA of .241 is the second lowest among regulars this month.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Astros supplemental 3rd rounder is third baseman
The Houston Astros drafted Jonathan Meyer with the 111th overall pick in the supplemental portion of the third round of the 2009 draft. The fourth high school player selected on the first day of the draft by Houston, the 18-year old is from Simi Valley High School in Simi Valley, California. Here's some video of Meyer in high school.
Meyer played shortstop in high school, but also caught games and was the team's closer. His defense is good, but profiles more as a third baseman as he progresses, which is why the Astros listed him as such when they drafted him. As I mentioned in the profile on Mier, the Houston farm system is pretty bare when it comes to infielders and third base is no exception. The only real prospect at the position is Chris Johnson and he's 24 and in Triple-A. Jhon Florentino, Marco Cabral and Ebert Rosario have serious flaws (no power, too old or no plate discipline) to view them as good prospects. Meyer changes that immediately.
His MLB.com scouting report shows some video of him at shortstop, but it's not really big enough to see well to form opinions. His bat raises some question marks on some scouting reports, but if he's solid defensively, I think the team will live with just getting average out of him. Plus, if he can add some strength to his 6-foot-1, 200 pound frame, he'll hit for more power than he does now. His arm is good enough to throw a 90 MPH fastball, so it should play well at the hot corner.
Meyer also scores high in the makeup department, something he showcases in this Q&A with Baseball Beginnings and with his switch to switch-hitting this spring. He's newly converted to switch hitting, so it may take him a while to find his groove. Just like Lance Berkman, he's more comfortable from his natural side (the right) than his new side, with a longer swing from the left side of the plate. The Astros couldn't get their third round pick signed last season, so we'll see if they can get Meyer in the fold as he's currently committed to Cal State-Fullerton.
Astros first 3rd round pick is outfielder
The Houston Astros drafted Telvin Nash with the 100th overall pick in the third round of the 2009 draft. The 18-year old left fielder from Griffin High School in Griffin, Georgia just doesn't show up on many scouting reports. He's listed at 6-foot-1, 230 pounds and is every bit that imposing a player in his video on MLB.com. Nash is currently committed to Kennesaw State and is rumored to be a tough sign.
Nash has a swing that definitely can play to some significant power, and was rated as being the top prep power hitter in the state. His pre-swing stance is very busy, with some extra knee movement that could be eliminated. It works for him now, so I'm not one to advocate changing, but complicated swings can get out of whack easily. Going off of thirty seconds of video is dangerous, but there were a couple of times that his swing looked long, though it also was very smooth at times too. We'll see how he plays at the next level, but it looks like he's got plus power potential.
In the outfield, his arm looks like it will play alright, though it's telling that the Astros listed him as a left fielder. He moved pretty well around the bases, so he should be able to stay on the corners and his arm looked like it could be an asset in left. He also apparently played third base at times next to former first round pick shortstop Tim Beckham.
The MLB Network commentators, including Baseball America executive editor Jim Callis, didn't have much to say about Nash, as he doesn't seem to have many scouting reports. But, the point Callis made was that Bobby Heck must have good conviction in his scouts finding guys and not caring about the "consensus." They select who they think is worth the pick. So far, so good. Hopefully, Nash will continue that trend.
Astros use 2nd round pick on pitcher
With the 69th overall pick in the second round of the 2009 draft, the Astros selected high school right-handed pitcher Tanner Bushue. The 17-year old is from South Central High School in Farina, Illinois. He signed with John A. Logan Community College, which shows that he can be signed fairly easily. Most people had him pegged as going in the first 10 rounds, but not higher than the fourth round, so expect him to be characterized as a bit of a reach. However, the MLB Network's draft expert Jonathan Mayo said he liked what the Astros were doing in not reaching for college guys who are close to the majors and instead taking upside guys like Bushue.According to the Baseball America scouting report, Bushue is a 6-foot-4, 180 pound athlete who averaged over 18 points a game as a basketball player in high school. His video on MLB.com shows him touching 90 with his fastball, but it sitting in the high 80's right now. His 12-6 curveball also had a ton of downward break, which makes it a tough pitch to hit. The MLB Network guys suggested that he can have a plus fastball and curveball, which gives him a good shot at making the big leagues in some capacity.
His weaknesses right now are that he doesn't really have a lot of time on the mound to develop a baseball feel. This means his third and fourth pitches are weak right now, something he'll have to work on in the minors to stay a starter in the higher levels of the farm system. Currently, he throws a slider and a changeup but neither are good pitches at this point.
One trend that is starting to show about Astros scouting director Bobby Heck's drafts is that he likes athletic pitchers. That's how most of the scouting reports described Jordan Lyles, Ross Seaton and Brad Dydalewicz last season and what they say about Bushue now. It's also worth noting that Bushue's pitching mechanics appear to be very solid. In that (very) short video, his motion appeared pretty easy and his arm flies open vertical from the ground, meaning he doesn't have to torque his shoulder much in his delivery. That's one of the problems that Mark Prior had in his delivery, and while it's not a sure sign of injury, it's good to know this kid has solid mechanics early on.
If the Astros hold to form, they'll send Bushue to Rookie ball to throw about 50 innings this season before starting next year in Lexington. Bushue will no doubt benefit from having Mier behind him defensively and the two could move up through the system together.
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